Our monthly look at Irish consumer sentiment in relation to the economy, spending, borrowing, savings and emotional wellbeing.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2017

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Mid-Year Reflections
We’re over half way through 2017 and our
July report confirms a trend we have noticed
since Q4 2015 – economic sentiment has
levelled off and are now at a plateau.
That said, as we tracked our Economic
Recovery Index in H1 2017 there were good
signs of resilience and even buoyancy on
some measures, for example in relation to
‘buying Irish’ and fewer buying on ‘price only’.
The nation’s emotional wellbeing remains
quite turbulent, though ‘negative emotions’
appear to be abating further, even if ‘positive
emotions’ are not returning to previous peaks.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to July 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th to 20th July 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was some eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2017
Our Economic Recovery Index has plateaued since Q4 2015
Recovery Plateau?

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0
Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0
Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3
Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7
Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1
Jul-16 13 30 32 22 3 43.1
Jun-17 13 32 30 23 2 42.5
Jul-17 17 27 31 23 2 41.6
There appears to be a gradual weakening in economic sentiment

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009
Over these past eight years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of
the mood of the nation and the impact on
consumer spending, borrowing and saving
intentions.
We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part
of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting
on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic
uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Jul-09 42 47 58 60
Jul-10 42 47 55 55
Jul-11 26 39 48 49
Jul-12 27 38 45 43
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
Jul-14 37 41 48 44
Jul-15 40 41 51 44
Jul-16 37 43 50 44
Jun-17 39 45 55 44
Jul-17 33 45 54 40
The main sentiment indicators have weakened since a year ago

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jul-09 14
Jul-10 20 27 62 27
Jul-11 17 26 59 26
Jul-12 18 25 56 25
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
Jul-14 23 24 54 23
Jul-15 28 24 52 27
Jul-16 31 28 55 29
Jun-17 32 32 59 38
Jul-17 34 29 62 40
Consumer spending and borrowing intentions are up compared to a year ago

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Price sensitivity has weakened, but remains fairly stable at present
Pricing Irish
There has been a positive improvement in sentiment about buying Irish:

12. Mood of the Nation

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to July
2017:

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2017
Source: Amárach Research, July 2017
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2017
Source: Amárach Research, July 2017
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: January 2014 – July 2017
Source: Amárach Research, July 2017
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Boredom Loneliness

17. Amárach Outlook

18. 19Economic Recovery Index
Get Planning
We’ll keep tracking consumer progress in
H2 2017 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
With the year end now in sight, there’s lots
to be doing over the remainder of 2017.
For more on the ERI (including 8 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

19. 20Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard with our latest
data and forecasts) here:
Try out the free version for a one
week trial period.
http://getplanr.com/

20. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/