We have been tracking the economic and emotional wellbeing of the Irish nation every month for the past 9 years. The good news is that our economic wellbeing is clearly getting better, the bad news is that our emotional wellbeing appears to be getting worse...

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
April 2009 - April 2018

2. 22
We have been reporting our monthly Economic
Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nine years ago to assess the psychological
impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional
progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic
progress’.
We’ve come along way in terms of the economic and
emotional wellbeing of the nation, as evident in the
data in this month’s report.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index
results from April 2009 to April 2018: the most recent
fieldwork was conducted during 14th to 22nd April
2018 inclusive.
See how bad it was nine years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-
recovery-index-july-results-2009
The Economic Recovery Index

3. 33
The ERI – beginning to improve again?
Source: Amárach Research, April 2018
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of
recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at
the peak).
The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the
current and future state of the economy have improved
considerably since its lowest point in December 2010.
This month – April 2018 – sees the ERI remain near its
highest level ever.
It may be that Irish consumers have broken out of their
‘reluctant recovery’ mode: time will tell.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Economic Recovery Index
April 2009 – April 2018

4. 44
The ERI – A Long Way Back
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Apr-09 77 14 8 1 0 8.3
Apr-10 38 34 25 2 1 23.8
Apr-11 51 27 19 2 1 18.2
Apr-12 49 27 21 3 0 19.4
Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3
Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2
Apr-15 14 30 37 17 2 40.2
Apr-16 16 30 32 20 2 41.8
Apr-17 14 24 35 24 3 44.6
Mar-18 12 27 29 26 6 46.7
Apr-18 13 25 30 25 7 46.5
The Recovery Index remains near its highest level ever, nearly 6 times higher than at the start.

5. 5
Consumer Impact

6. 66
Over these past nine years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the Irish consumer.
Consumer Sentiment
%
Agree
Ireland will
be through
the worst of
the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am
optimistic in
spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like
the recession
is affecting
other people
more than it
is affecting
me
I am more
relaxed
about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of
the recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow
money from
a bank if I
need to
I always buy
the lowest
price
products or
services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
Apr-09 34 48 57 59 15
Apr-10 43 47 52 53 21 28 59 31
Apr-11 24 39 47 48 14 27 58 24
Apr-12 31 42 51 50 20 30 59 28
Apr-13 25 35 40 44 15 23 57 21 57 52
Apr-14 35 40 49 43 24 24 56 26 56 50
Apr-15 46 45 57 44 30 26 51 28 49 49
Apr-16 32 42 47 42 27 23 51 24 49 51
Apr-17 33 44 53 40 32 28 57 37 52 57
Mar-18 40 50 56 44 37 33 58 40 52 62
Apr-18 44 49 58 44 37 35 57 37 56 59

7. 7
Mood of the Nation

8. 88
The Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another
‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions
experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative – in order
to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and
ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding emotions
gives us insight into the drivers of short run dynamics in terms of
consumer markets and even growth prospects.
One of the more concerning trends in our data is that despite recent
economic improvements, certain measures of the nation’s emotional
wellbeing (the levels of both positive and negative emotions) appear to
be getting worse rather than better – which may mean that the
headline improvements are still not translating into meaningful material
gains for many Irish citizens.

9. 99
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2018 (boredom and loneliness added 2014)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

10. 1010
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2018 (Boredom and loneliness added in 2014)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
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Apr-16
May-16
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Jul-16
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Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

11. 11
Amárach Outlook

12. 1212
There is clearly a renewed buoyancy in
Irish consumer sentiment as measured in
our indicators and in others as well.
Other things being equal, the spending
outlook for Irish consumer markets over
the rest of 2018 is very strong – perhaps
the strongest it has been in 10 years.
With a third of the year under our belt,
the scene looks set for a benign run over
the remainder of 2018.
Outlook – Record Spending?

13. 1313
We survey 1,000 adults every month to
create the Economic Recovery Index
We also track dozens of data series
relating to customer experience,
spending levels, and switching intentions
also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as a free
dashboard with our latest data and
forecasts) at getPlanR.com
Try out the free version for a one week
trial period
Download our brochure here:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/pla
nr-business-intelligence-service
Get PlanR and get Planning

14. 1414
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/