Our monthly index of Irish consumer spending, saving and borrowing intentions has reached an all time high nearly 9 years after we started measuring the mood of the nation.

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
March 2018

2. 22
We have been reporting our monthly Economic
Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological
impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional
progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic
progress’.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index
results from April 2009 to March 2018.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 11th
to 23rd March 2018 inclusive.
See how bad it was eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-
recovery-indicator-march-2010
The Economic Recovery Index

3. 33
The ERI – beginning to improve again?
Source: Amárach Research, March 2018
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of
recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at
the peak).
The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the
current and future state of the economy have improved
considerably since its lowest point in December 2010.
This month – March 2018 – sees the ERI reach its highest
level ever.
It may be that Irish consumers have broken out of their
‘reluctant recovery’ mode: time will tell.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Economic Recovery Index
April 2009 – March 2018

4. 44
The ERI – Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in Ireland
is getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a few
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is getting
better and
showing clear
signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is good
and almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5
Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2
Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3
Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0
Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7
Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5
Mar-16 13 30 35 20 2 42.2
Mar-17 15 29 32 21 3 42.1
Feb-18 14 25 28 28 5 45.9
Mar-18 12 27 29 26 6 46.7
The Recovery Index has reached its highest level ever

5. 5
Consumer Impact

6. 66
Over these past nine years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending,
borrowing and saving intentions.
Irish consumers are appear more willing than ever to borrow from a bank, but still prioritise debt repayments.
Consumer Sentiment
% Agree
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am
optimistic in
spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of
the recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if
I need to
I always buy
the lowest
price products
or services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
Mar-10 42 43 54 55 18 25 61 30
Mar-11 25 36 48 47 13 23 58 23
Mar-12 30 40 50 48 18 29 55 24
Mar-13 30 40 44 47 19 27 53 25
Mar-14 37 40 49 45 23 24 58 26 57 48
Mar-15 40 40 48 40 26 27 51 24 52 49
Mar-16 37 44 52 44 28 25 55 26 49 53
Mar-17 35 41 51 40 30 30 56 36 54 55
Feb-18 38 49 56 46 35 34 60 42 57 60
Mar-18 40 50 56 44 37 33 58 40 52 62

7. 7
Mood of the Nation

8. 88
The Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2018
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just
another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of
emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as
negative – in order to provide a unique insight into the real
‘mood’ of the nation.
Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and
ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding
emotions gives us insight into the drivers of short run
dynamics in terms of consumer markets and even growth
prospects.
Amárach’s work combining emotional insights with
advertising effectiveness and policy adoption studies has
proven the power of emotional insights to predict future
outcomes.

9. 99
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2018 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

10. 1010
The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2018 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
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Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
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Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
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Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

11. 11
Amárach Outlook

12. 1212
There is clearly a renewed buoyancy in
Irish consumer sentiment as measured in
our indicators and in others as well.
Other things being equal, the spending
outlook for Irish consumer markets over
the rest of 2018 is very strong – perhaps
the strongest it has been in 10 years.
As the ninth anniversary of the ERI
approaches next month, we have a few
new initiatives in the pipeline that we
look forward to sharing with you soon.
Outlook – Record Spending?

13. 1313
We survey 1,000 adults every month to
create the Economic Recovery Index
We also track dozens of data series
relating to customer experience,
spending levels, and switching intentions
also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as a free
dashboard with our latest data and
forecasts) at getPlanR.com
Try out the free version for a one week
trial period
Download our brochure here:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/pla
nr-business-intelligence-service
Get PlanR and get Planning

14. 1414
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/