The document is an Economic Recovery Index report from Amárach Research in December 2015. It provides data and analysis tracking Ireland's economic recovery based on surveys of consumer sentiment, spending intentions, and mood. Key findings include the Economic Recovery Index remaining near record high levels above 40 in the second half of 2015, improving consumer optimism and spending intentions, and stabilization in most sentiment indicators from their low points following the recession.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
December 2015
Focus on: Energy Suppliers
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Christmas Clear
Five years from its lowest ebb and our
Economic Recovery Index continues to stay
close to record levels.
Right through the second half of 2015, the
ERI stayed at 40 or above – and looks set to
stay there for the time being.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes
and intentions of customers of Ireland’s
energy providers as well as looking at
spending intentions going into the New Year.
All that remains is for us to wish you and
yours a Happy & Peaceful Christmas and we
look forward to tracking Ireland’s recovery
with you in 2016.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to December 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 7th to 16th December 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was five years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-december-2010

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has levelled off in Q4 2015, but remains near record high levels:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
The ERI has stayed above the 40 level for the second half of 2015

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3
Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0
Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1
Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5
Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2
Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9
Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7
Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3
There has been a sea-change in economic outlook since December 2010

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
Economic Outlook
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement by electricity provider:
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
December 2015 TOTAL
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gáis
Airtricity
Pre pay
power
Energia
1000 480 180 179 40 49
The economic situation in Ireland
is getting worse
12% 12% 13% 11% 18% 8%
The economic situation is bad but
has stabilized
28% 34% 21% 26% 40% 20%
The economic situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement
32% 31% 33% 38% 22% 39%
The economic situation is getting
better and showing clear signs of
improvement
18% 17% 23% 17% 5% 22%
The economic situation is good
and almost fully recovered from the
recession
4% 4% 6% 4% 6% 2%
ERI Score 43.3 41.5 46.7 44.6 33.5 47
Customer Net Promoter Score -24 -25 -21 -32 13 -19

8. Consumer Impact

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Dec-09 43 45 51 56
Dec-10 23 34 41 45
Dec-11 22 33 39 43
Dec-12 26 32 39 43
Dec-13 37 40 49 43
Dec-14 40 42 52 43
Nov-15 43 47 56 45
Dec-15 43 43 51 45
Most indicators have stabilised, but are still prone to fluctuations

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Switching Attitudes
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by electricity provider):
“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
December 2015 TOTAL
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gáis
Airtricity
Pre pay
power
Energia
1000 480 180 179 40 49
Strongly Agree 31% 30% 33% 33% 37% 39%
Slightly Agree 35% 36% 33% 35% 28% 39%
Neither/Nor 20% 20% 20% 22% 17% 16%
Slightly Disagree 6% 7% 6% 4% 12% 4%
Strongly Disagree 3% 4% 2% 3% 0 2%

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Dec-09 17 26 57 29
Dec-10 11 23 58 21
Dec-11 14 27 56 22
Dec-12 15 22 54 22
Dec-13 22 26 55 26
Dec-14 26 23 55 23
Nov-15 31 27 54 27
Dec-15 30 25 52 26
Spending sentiment remains strong in the run up to Christmas

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
54%
18%
11%
60%
15%
7%
Travel abroad Buy a new car Buy a new house
% of all adults intending to make purchase
in next 6 months
December '14 December '15
Holiday spending set to increase sharply going into 2016

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Spoilt for Choice
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by electricity provider):
“I have more choices than before when it comes to products & services”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
December 2015 TOTAL
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gáis
Airtricity
Pre pay
power
Energia
1000 480 180 179 40 49
Strongly Agree 20% 19% 21% 20% 25% 24%
Slightly Agree 38% 40% 37% 40% 30% 36%
Neither/Nor 26% 24% 24% 31% 25% 27%
Slightly Disagree 8% 8% 11% 3% 7% 6%
Strongly Disagree 3% 5% 2% 2% 7% 2%

14. Mood of the Nation

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2015
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2015
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, December 2015
TOTAL
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gáis
Airtricity
Pre pay
power
Energia
TOTAL 1000 480 180 179 40 49
Enjoyment 45% 47% 48% 46% 52% 40%
Happiness 44% 43% 48% 46% 43% 43%
Stress 35% 34% 37% 31% 59% 36%
Worry 33% 31% 39% 29% 42% 27%
Anxiety 30% 29% 38% 24% 42% 18%
Physical Pain 24% 23% 27% 19% 20% 29%
Sadness 21% 21% 21% 18% 24% 18%
Boredom 20% 23% 19% 17% 17% 12%
Anger 16% 15% 18% 13% 31% 21%
Loneliness 14% 16% 13% 15% 13% 5%
Fear 11% 11% 13% 8% 19% 6%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by energy provider:

18. Amárach Outlook

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
2015 has been a good year when it comes to
tracking the recovery through our Economic
Recovery Index.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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21. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/