Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013

1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
August 2013
(including analysis by main bank; electricity supplier; mobile network)
© Amárach Research

Autumn Approaches
Our Economic Recovery Index has continued
to remain strong in August – sustaining three
months in a row of above trend levels.
However, there is a marked contrast between
what people feel about the economy – and
what they are feeling per se.
More negative emotions are rising, while
positive emotions are falling – and it isn’t all
early onset S.A.D. as our better than average
summer comes to an end.
Marketers need to watch out for volatile mood
swings – especially as Budget 2014 arrives
early this year in October.
We’ll keep you updated as the rest of 2013
unfolds…

The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out four years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
August 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 17th to 24th August 2013 inclusive.
We have now added historical tables to the
report following requests from a number of
readers.

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our ERI index in August 2013 stood at 23.7 – sustaining the higher trend since June:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, August 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug

A Matter of Measurement
July ’13: 41% Aug ’13: 38%
July ’13: 30% Aug ’13: 33%
July ’13: 25% Aug ’13: 26%
July ’13: 4% Aug ’13: 3%
July ’13: 0% Aug ’13: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:

ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0
Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0
Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3
Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7

ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Aug-09 43 48 60 61
Aug-10 39 46 50 54
Aug-11 24 34 48 46
Aug-12 27 39 47 46
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
Aug-13 32 38 44 43

ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Aug-09 16
Aug-10 19 26 62 31
Aug-11 14 25 57 23
Aug-12 17 28 54 25
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
Aug-13 18 25 55 25

Eternal Optimists I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
August 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 15% 13% 7% 9% 14% 13% 14% 10%
Slightly Agree 32% 30% 34% 32% 33% 26% 33% 35% 38% 34% 30%
Neither/Nor 16% 18% 15% 21% 16% 18% 15% 13% 19% 15% 17%
Slightly Disagree 23% 22% 23% 20% 22% 25% 22% 23% 18% 21% 24%
Strongly Disagree 15% 15% 15% 9% 13% 21% 19% 15% 11% 14% 16%

Eternal Optimists II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/electricity/mobile):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
August 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB
Ulster
Bank
EBS
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais
Airtricity O2
Voda
fone
Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196
Strongly Agree 12% 14% 10% 12% 13% 11% 10% 14% 14% 12% 12%
Slightly Agree 32% 30% 36% 33% 28% 33% 30% 31% 34% 30% 30%
Neither/Nor 16% 17% 16% 11% 16% 15% 18% 16% 13% 17% 15%

NEW: Switching I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 36% 35% 37% 36% 39% 41% 38% 29% 37% 33% 39%
Slightly Agree 33% 33% 34% 30% 35% 32% 31% 37% 33% 39% 28%
Neither/Nor 15% 17% 12% 18% 14% 13% 13% 15% 13% 15% 15%

NEW: Switching II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/electricity/mobile):
“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”
Ulster
Bank
EBS
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais
Airtricity O2
Voda
fone
Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196
Strongly Agree 36% 36% 35% 39% 36% 31% 37% 45% 33% 36% 38%
Slightly Agree 33% 33% 33% 40% 30% 37% 30% 30% 39% 30% 33%
Neither/Nor 15% 14% 15% 7% 20% 16% 15% 9% 15% 16% 15%

The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr'10
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr'11
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr'12
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

The Mood of the Nation 2
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Emotions Summary Table
% Enjoyment
Happ-
iness
Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Aug-09 60 54 50 38 33 16 22 18
Aug-10 56 56 42 37 25 17 23 17
Aug-11 53 53 40 35 28 17 23 17
Aug-12 53 51 41 38 31 22 22 18
Jul-13 58 56 42 34 31 18 25 16
Aug-13 51 49 44 42 33 22 25 19
% saying Yes:

Changing Moods I
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523
Enjoyment 51% 49% 53% 48% 48% 45% 54% 58% 51% 56% 47%
Happiness 49% 46% 53% 52% 56% 47% 38% 50% 49% 52% 47%
Stress 44% 43% 46% 48% 45% 53% 46% 34% 42% 41% 47%
Worry 42% 37% 46% 45% 44% 45% 42% 35% 42% 39% 44%
Anxiety 33% 32% 33% 33% 33% 38% 32% 29% 34% 34% 32%
Boredom 33% 34% 31% 54% 41% 30% 24% 19% 34% 30% 36%
Physical Pain 25% 24% 25% 24% 20% 28% 24% 27% 25% 22% 28%
Sadness 22% 19% 26% 28% 26% 23% 18% 18% 24% 20% 24%
Anger 19% 20% 18% 24% 26% 25% 13% 9% 20% 17% 21%
Fear 12% 12% 11% 13% 17% 13% 7% 8% 14% 11% 12%
% saying Yes: August 2013

Changing Moods II
Ulster
Bank
EBS
Electric
Ireland
Bord
Gais
Airtricity O2
Voda
fone
Meteor
Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196
Enjoyment 51% 48% 54% 51% 57% 54% 47% 49% 57% 51% 42%
Happiness 49% 50% 49% 47% 53% 50% 51% 48% 52% 50% 40%
Stress 44% 47% 40% 47% 44% 45% 46% 41% 39% 44% 49%
Worry 42% 41% 41% 41% 45% 41% 43% 41% 45% 41% 45%
Anxiety 33% 34% 34% 30% 30% 32% 36% 30% 33% 34% 35%
Boredom 33% 34% 29% 31% 36% 32% 28% 35% 27% 32% 39%
Physical Pain 25% 26% 23% 24% 28% 25% 26% 23% 25% 27% 20%
Sadness 22% 23% 24% 19% 21% 20% 27% 23% 21% 22% 22%
Anger 19% 20% 16% 14% 26% 18% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20%
Fear 12% 13% 10% 11% 12% 12% 15% 8% 13% 11% 10%
% saying Yes: August 2013 (by main bank/electricity provider/mobile service)

Drivers & Drinking
we provide the answers
to our clients’ important questions
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, in-
depths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2013

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