Our monthly look at what Irish consumers think, feel and intend in relation to spending, savings and the future.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2014
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Flying Ahead
Despite aggressive seagulls, it appears Irish
consumers have taken to the good July
weather with gusto.
This month’s edition of the Economic
Recovery Index has returned to its historic
peak reached in March earlier this year.
Our index also reveals the lowest percentage
of adults who think the economic situation in
Ireland is getting worse – just 18% think this,
down from a peak of 80% in October 2010.
The recent momentum in consumer sentiment
has certainly continued, boding well for
recovery in the Autumn once everyone (and
the seagulls) have had enough of ice cream…

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over five years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to July
2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th-20th July 2014 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – details
at the end of this report.

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index has remained fairly constant through May and July 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
the ERI has returned to its previous peak in March 2014

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
June ’14: 24% July ’14: 18%
June ’14: 33% July ’14: 36%
June ’14: 35% July ’14: 35%
June ’14: 8% July ’14: 10%
June ’14: 1% July ’14: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is at its lowest level ever:

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0
Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0
Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3
Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
Jun-14 24 33 35 8 1 32.5
Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7
the highest ever level for ‘getting worse’ was 80% in October 2010

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Uneven Recovery
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, class, Dublin)
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse
17% 18% 17% 13% 17% 21% 21% 16% 19% 14% 20%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized
35% 37% 34% 35% 40% 38% 30% 34% 36% 36% 35%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
34% 31% 36% 38% 27% 28% 37% 39% 31% 35% 33%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
10% 12% 9% 9% 11% 9% 11% 10% 9% 12% 8%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
* 0 1% 1% 1% 0 0 0 1% * *
ERI Score 34.7 34.7 34.8 36.2 33.9 31.6 35.1 36.6 33.2 36.9 32.8

9. Consumer Impact

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Jul-09 42 47 58 60
Jul-10 42 47 55 55
Jul-11 26 39 48 49
Jul-12 27 38 45 43
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
Jun-14 37 42 50 45
Jul-14 37 41 48 44
people are feeling a little more optimistic and comfortable – but only a little

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jul-09 14
Jul-10 20 27 62 27
Jul-11 17 26 59 26
Jul-12 18 25 56 25
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
Jun-14 25 26 54 26
Jul-14 23 24 54 23
just under one in four are more relaxed about spending

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Insulated?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 18% 19% 16% 21% 17% 9% 18% 21% 15% 23% 13%
Slightly Agree 26% 26% 26% 27% 22% 27% 25% 29% 29% 29% 24%
Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 18% 24% 25% 13% 15% 20% 20% 19%
Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 25% 18% 22% 17% 18% 17% 22%
Strongly Disagree 15% 14% 17% 12% 11% 19% 19% 17% 17% 11% 20%

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I always buy
the lowest
price products
or services
I am always on
the lookout for
opportunities to
switch to
cheaper
suppliers
I have more
choice than
before when it
comes to
products and
services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
May-13 58 69 54 54
Jun-13 55 70 55 51
Jul-13 56 70 52 53
Aug-13 57 70 53 53
Sep-13 59 72 53 54
Oct-13 58 69 52 51
Nov-13 56 69 55 51
Dec-13 54 68 54 53
Jan-14 59 74 56 54
Feb-14 56 70 57 52
Mar-14 57 68 56 48
Apr-14 56 69 54 50
May-14 60 72 55 51
Jun-14 55 70 58 52
Jul-14 58 72 58 48

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Still Sensitive
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am always on the look out for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 38% 37% 38% 38% 31% 45% 45% 35% 39% 36% 40%
Slightly Agree 34% 33% 35% 34% 38% 31% 31% 35% 34% 36% 32%
Neither/Nor 16% 18% 14% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 16%
Slightly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 3% 9% 3% 2% 8% 5% 6% 5%
Strongly Disagree 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3%

15. Mood of the Nation

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, July 2014
July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 47% 50% 57% 59% 52% 58% 49%
Happiness 54% 54% 54% 59% 52% 56% 51% 52% 52% 59% 49%
Stress 39% 37% 41% 47% 44% 44% 35% 29% 42% 38% 40%
Worry 34% 31% 37% 34% 42% 35% 34% 26% 34% 32% 36%
Boredom 29% 27% 32% 48% 32% 28% 21% 21% 27% 27% 31%
Anxiety 26% 23% 28% 31% 33% 24% 20% 21% 29% 24% 27%
Physical Pain 24% 24% 25% 20% 22% 22% 29% 28% 24% 23% 25%
Sadness 20% 18% 23% 24% 25% 17% 20% 16% 21% 18% 23%
Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 18% 21% 11% 10% 17% 14% 16%
Fear 10% 8% 12% 12% 13% 11% 7% 8% 11% 7% 12%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: July 2014

19. Amárach Outlook

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
Dive In
Gradually, gradually comes the recovery – but
did we mention it would be gradual?
Moods are catching, so if the current emotional
and intentional momentum continues we can
expect to see a gradual increase in the share
of consumers more prepared to dive into the
recovery as it becomes more manifest.
We hope this edition of the Economic
Recovery Index has given you some food for
thought about the opportunities that lie ahead
– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you
on how to leverage the new momentum.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

21. we ask better questions
so you get better answers
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23. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch