Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.

1. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic and Revenue Outlook:
December 2015
December 2nd, 2015 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner

2. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Performance
and Outlook
2

3. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Traditional Advantage Regained
3

4. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Signs of a Deeper Labor Market
Recovery In Oregon
4

5. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Full Employment Is In Sight
5

6. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Rural Areas Continuing to Improve
6

7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Risk: Manufacturing
7

8. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Risk: Housing Affordability
8

9. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Outlook
9

10. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Outlook
10

11. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015-17 Forecast Evolution
11

12. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Same Pattern As Job Growth
12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2015
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
Recent Personal Income Tax Collections
% change over year ago, 3 month moving sum

13. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Corporate Taxes Remain Inflated
13
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
2000 2005 2010 2015
Net Corporate Taxes ($ Mil, 12 month sum)

14. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Tax Payments Outstrip Profits
14
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
2004:2
2004:4
2005:2
2005:4
2006:2
2006:4
2007:2
2007:4
2008:2
2008:4
2009:2
2009:4
2010:2
2010:4
2011:2
2011:4
2012:2
2012:4
2013:2
2013:4
2014:2
2014:4
2015:2
Corporate Tax Collections, (ths)
U.S. Corporate Profits ($ bil, right axis)
4 Quarter Moving Sums
GenTax
System
Goes
Live

15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Progressivity and Volatility Are
Linked
15
2.2% 0.8%
4.7% 5.2%
11.3%
14.1%
19.0%
21.6%
26.6%
36.5%
62.1%
69.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Tax Returns Subject to M66 Top Rate, % Share of Total, 2014
* M66 in 2014 or 2013 or Both
Matched Returns through 10/13

16. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Lottery and Nationwide Gaming
Remains Strong
16

17. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
1717
Forecast Changes
Difference from September Forecast, $ millions
56
-47.5
-6.8
94.4
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23
Personal
Corporate
Lottery
Other
Total

18. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
18
Reserves
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
99-01
BN
01-03
BN
03-05
BN
05-07
BN
07-09
BN
09-11
BN
11-13
BN
13-15
BN
15-17
BN
17-19
BN
Oregon Budgetary Reserves (billions)
Gen. Fund Ending Balance Educ. Stability Fund Rainy Day Fund
Forecast -->
Percent of
General Fund -->
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

19. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
1919
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total General Fund

20. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
20
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
oea.info@state.or.us
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis