The Economic Recovery Index by Amárach Research tracks the psychological and economic recovery of Irish consumers from the recession over an eight-year period, ending in April 2017. The index remains flat despite some signs of improvement, with notable resilience shown by consumers regarding spending and savings compared to the past. Overall, consumer sentiment reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook, with variations in emotional well-being observed among different demographics.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
April 2017: Eight Years On

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
That Was Then
The Irish consumer
has been on a
journey since we
began measuring
economic sentiment
back in April 2009 –
the chart shows the
‘cumulative’ trend in
consumer spending
growth up to Q4
2016.
This month’s
Economic Recovery
Index brings us up to
the 8 year mark.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out eight years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to April 2017.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 17th to 22nd April 2017 inclusive.
See how bad it was some eight years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, April 2017
Our Economic Recovery Index remains flat despite recent uptick

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Apr-09 77 14 8 1 0 8.3
Apr-10 38 34 25 2 1 23.8
Apr-11 51 27 19 2 1 18.2
Apr-12 49 27 21 3 0 19.4
Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3
Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2
Apr-15 14 30 37 17 2 40.2
Apr-16 16 30 32 20 2 41.8
Mar-17 15 29 32 21 3 42.1
Apr-17 14 24 35 24 3 44.6
We’re an awful lot more bullish than eight years ago, though not much than last year

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of
the mood of the nation and the impact on
consumer spending, borrowing and saving
intentions.
We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part
of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting
on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic
uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Apr-09 34 48 57 59
Apr-10 43 47 52 53
Apr-11 24 39 47 48
Apr-12 31 42 51 50
Apr-13 25 35 40 44
Apr-14 35 40 49 43
Apr-15 46 45 57 44
Apr-16 32 42 47 42
Mar-17 35 41 51 40
Apr-17 33 44 53 40
Optimism has remained strong in the past few months

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Apr-09 15
Apr-10 21 28 59 31
Apr-11 14 27 58 24
Apr-12 20 30 59 28
Apr-13 15 23 57 21
Apr-14 24 24 56 26
Apr-15 30 26 51 28
Apr-16 27 23 51 24
Mar-17 30 30 56 36
Apr-17 32 28 57 37
Consumer borrowing intentions are well up compared to a year ago

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Despite recovering house prices, sentiment towards housing is well down on 2013
Buying A House – I
We’ve tracked sentiment towards buying a house on and off in the past 8 years:
data not collected

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
The % intending to buy a new house has picked up significantly
Buying A House – II
Intention to buy a new house is slowly trending upwards, especially in past 12 months:

13. Mood of the Nation

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged: our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to April
2017, which did see some improvement:

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2017
Source: Amárach Research, April 2017
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr'17
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2017
Source: Amárach Research, April 2017
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr'17
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
Source: Amárach Research, April 2017
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Boredom Loneliness

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2017
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
Enjoyment 53% 51% 55% 52% 46% 45% 60% 62% 51%
Happiness 50% 50% 50% 53% 42% 44% 51% 58% 47%
Stress 37% 32% 41% 43% 39% 38% 37% 30% 36%
Worry 29% 23% 34% 32% 25% 29% 30% 29% 31%
Anxiety 25% 21% 28% 34% 24% 23% 23% 21% 25%
Physical Pain 22% 20% 23% 19% 17% 17% 27% 27% 24%
Boredom 19% 19% 19% 34% 19% 20% 15% 12% 20%
Sadness 16% 12% 19% 22% 14% 17% 15% 14% 16%
Anger 13% 11% 15% 25% 11% 14% 10% 9% 16%
Loneliness 13% 10% 17% 22% 11% 10% 14% 12% 13%
Fear 9% 8% 9% 13% 9% 9% 7% 6% 10%
Over 55s are enjoying themselves more than any other cohort in Irish society

19. Amárach Outlook

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
Get Planning
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2017 and beyond.
With May around the corner there’s lots to
be doing as 2017 gathers momentum.
For more on the ERI (including 8 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Try out the free version for a one
week trial period.
http://getplanr.com/

22. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/