Presentation at the November 2012 dialogue workshop of the Biosciences for Farming in Africa media fellowship programme in Arusha, Tanzania. Please see www.b4fa.org for more information

1. The Challenge of Achieving Food Security
and Sustainability for Nine Billion
chris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk
Old Byzantine Proverb:
‘He who has bread may have troubles
He whoAchieving Food Security
lacks it has only one’
and
Sustainability for Nine
Billion
chris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk

2. We are dependent on cultivated plant species as the software
to translate the sun’s energy, water and mineral nutrients into
food, fibre and fuels
In Many Countries Productive Agriculture is Seasonal
.
CHLOROPHYLL: Is the only the molecule that can be seen from space. It
is found in all Green Plants and is responsible for capturing the light
energy from the Sun by a process know as PHOTOSYNTHESIS

3. PHOTOSYNTHESIS
• Life on earth ultimately
depends on energy derived
from the sun.
• Photosynthesis by green plants
is the only process of biological
importance that can capture
this energy.
• It provides energy, organic
matter and oxygen, and is the
only sustainable energy source
on our planet.
Sucrose
Starch
Proteins
Oils
THE FOOD WE
EAT
Plants provide the food we eat,
the environment we enjoy &
the air we breathe.

4. CHALLENGES IN YOUR
LIFETIME
Humans use about 30% of the earths photosynthetic production and
and ca 32% of the planets land area for cropland(12%) and pasture(20%)
1. What level is truly sustainable, how much do we need to share with other
species and how can we optimise the usefulness and beneficial impact of
what we can harvest in the future?
2. How can we deliver global food security to avoid predicted deficits as early
as 2020 and to deliver an environmentally sustainable doubling of crop
production by 2050?. There are 7.0 billion people on earth now and this will
increase to ca. 9 billion by 2050
2. How can we reduce our dependence on, and ultimately replace
petrochemicals with renewable chemical feed stocks from plants?
4. How can we combat climate change,global warming and drought and minimise
its impact on crop productivity?

5. Agriculture is a success
story and has kept pace
with the increase in
population over the
centuries… BUT not for
everyone on the planet
The Eurocentric
Vision of Agriculture:
Garden of Earthly
Delight or Paradise Lost?
Peter Bruegel the Elder (1565)
The Reality:Prarie Agriculture
In Mato Grosso-Brazil
Soybean Harvest and
Corn Cultivation
YOU WILL KNOW
FAR BETTER THAN I
THE REALITY OF
AGRICULTURE IN
SOME AFRICAN
COUNTRIES

6. Today we could feed everyone on the planet thanks to plant breeding
and modern agriculture but now and in the future making sure
everyone has enough to eat is about politics (access,distribution etc---)
and investment in science…….
• More than 1 billion people go hungry daily about 250
million are in Africa
• About 30,000 people, half of them children, die every
day due to hunger and malnutrition
• More than 3 billion people are living in absolute poverty
on less than two dollars a day and are generally deficient
in at least one micronutrient necessary for maintaining
their health. They have real problems with food security.
• 650 Million of the Poorest Live in Rural Areas
“In the next 50 years, mankind will consume as much food as we have consumed
since the beginning of agriculture 10,000 years ago - Clive James”

7. The worlds population has more than doubled in the last 50 years
Each Year the World’s Population Grows by about 80 Million People
220,000 new mouths to feed everyday
2012
1960
10% of the Population Lives
on 0.5% of the World’s Income
Developing and
Transition
Countries
1927
Developed countries

8. Increases in global population and urbanisation…
World population growth by region
Urbanisation
10
P o p u la tio n (b illio n s )
9
8
7
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America
Europe
6
Asia
5
Africa
4
3
2
1
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
Source: United Nations, World Population
The largest increases in population will
Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
occur in megacities in Africa and Asia.
More than 50% of the worlds
population already live in urban
areas it will rise to 70%.

9. Demand is driven by population growth and land scarcity
World population
People fed per hectare
2030
2030
>5 people
>8 billion
2005
>4 people
2005
6.5 billion
1950
2.5 billion
1960
2 people
Source: FAO, World Bank statistics
As a result 1 in 6 of the world’s population, is hungry today,
and we have to increase food production by 70-100% by 2050

10. And failing to end hunger
Undernourishment data versus the Millenium Development
Millions
Goals target
2007-08 food
price spike
Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)

11. How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?
Mechanisation including irrigation
Sub Saharan Africa
Modern fertilizers
Better seed varieties
Crop protection
chemicals
Maximum yields in those countries which will have the biggest increase in
population are still far below those achieved in the developed world

12. Four innovations brought about the change in agriculture
and increased yield in the twentieth century
•
Productivity steadily increased with only a 10%
increase in land use :
– Mechanisation and irrigation
– Synthetic fertilisers
– Crop protection chemicals
– Plant Breeding and Geneticsthe ‘Green revolution’
•
The effect of these four innovations was to
allow more food to be produced from less
land-
•
The
developed
complacent!!
•
What are the innovations which will
change agriculture in this century?
world
became
Source: WBC for Sustainable Agriculture, Crop Losses to Pests (E-C Oerke); Journal of Agricultural Science (2006)
11/7/2012
12

13. • Agronomic and Genetic Improvements Will Continue to
Work Together to Sustain Improvement in Crop Yield
Several studies have shown that about 40-50% of U.S. corn yield gain since the 1930s is
due to changes in management, such as increases in N fertilizer, agrochemicals & higher
plant densities, while the other 50-60% is due to changes in corn genotype.
But yield gains of some major crops are plateauing
In the developed world
US average crop yields (1866 – 2006)
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
Russell and Sandall (2005) University of
Nebraska, Lincoln
Molecular Breeding and GM technology has made a significant
contribution to the increase in yield of corn since the late 1990s
Corn
Sorghum
Barley
Wheat
Soybean
Oats
Rye
Cotton
USDA NASS

14. The world has been successful at Increasing Food Supply
But this has been at a cost………..
To feed and resource 7.0 billion people we have already lost…..
•1/5 of our topsoil (due to erosion, desertification and salinity)
•1/5 of our agricultural land (overgrazing marginal land)
•1/3 of our forests
•Plus Today Additionally…..
•Environmental pollution
•Climate change, groundwater depletion
•Depletion of the Ozone layer
•Massive fossil fuel usage/CO2 increase by 15% since 1950
•Species extinction, biodiversity loss
•Urbanisation → increased meat consumption (India and China etc)
•Obesity/starvation
•Zoonotic disease transmission HIV, SARs, BSE, Foot and Mouth, Bird Flu etc
THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE : DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION

15. And now man made global warming and climate change…..
Carbon dioxide levels over
the last 60,000 years
Crop productivity is highly vulnerable to
variations in climate
Models suggest that climate change will have
a positive or neutral effect on crop yields at
high latitudes but negative effects at low
latitudes
Increased CO2 (from the current 385 ppm set
to rise to 450ppm) raises some yields
Lack of water limits others
Spectrum of pests and disease change

16. Food Security, Poverty and Climate Change

17. The Challenge is :
• World population will grow from 7bn 2012 to >9bn by
2050
• More than 50% of the worlds population already live
in urban areas and it will rise to 70%
• The largest increases in population will occur in
megacities in Africa and Asia
• Increasing affluence in Asia drives demand for meat,
cereals, edible oils-the nutritional transition
• Over 1bn people chronically hungry. 3 billion in
poverty
• Land available for agriculture will stay ~ constant or
decrease
• Decreasing water supplies limit crop yields

18. and………
•Climate warming is broadly neutral on global yields
but will have significant negative impact on those
countries with the greatest need. Leading to changes
in the distribution and severity of plant pests and
disease,rising sea levels,flooding,severe drought,
decline in soil quality (eg erosion,salinity)
•Increase in yields of major staple crops is plateauing
•Diversion of resources into growing energy crops for
biofuels rather than food crops
70- 100% more food required on same land area,
with improved sustainability, fairer distribution and
adaption to climate change

19. The food system is also failing on sustainability - defined
as….. ‘Meeting the needs of the present while improving the
ability of future generations to meet their own needs’
•Agriculture currently consumes 70% of
total global water withdrawals from
rivers and aquifers, many of which are
overexploited. Global water demand for
agriculture could rise by over 30% by
2030 and double by 2050.
•Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on
earth, around 24% has undergone
human induced soil degradation
• Agriculture and forestry directly
contributes ca 30 % of global
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions

20. We Must Grow More With Less
“Sustainable Intensification”
• All commentators agree that food production will have to increase substantially
this century. But there are very different views about how this should best be
achieved
• Sustainable agricultural intensification is defined as ‘producing more output from
the same area of land while reducing the negative environmental impacts ‘
• ...both agricultural and environmental outcomes are pre-eminent under
sustainable intensification
• To deliver sustainable intensification we must get beyond pointless arguments
based on entrenched beliefs or narrow debates about individual technologies and
must ……..
•
•
•
•
•
Focus on desired outcomes
Practical matter not an academic exercise
There is no single perfect solution
Sustainability is a journey, not the destination
Solutions must work locally for individual farmers and communities

21. There are only two ways to increase food production
Time Magazine
Farm More Land
21
Produce More/Acre
In an age of climate change, land-use-conversion is the worst
possible thing to do
Time Magazine

22. Declining Land Availability
07/11/2012 21:32
22

23. We are running out of land and water!!!
Worldwide, more than 70% of food
production is dependent on irrigation.
Depletion of aquifers (underground water)
is occurring at twice there recharge
rate,water tables are falling and wells
running dry .
Salinisation and desertification is a major
consequence of irrigation
Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries (particularily in
China and India) more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the
resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially
unmanageable food scarcity.

24. Major drought-prone regions of the world coincide with
those regions with the largest predicted increase in population
Changing and unpredictable weather patterns
Corn yields in USA decreased
by ca 30% in 2012 due to drought

25. The Choices
• Expand area of agriculture using virgin land
• Increase productivity in exporting countries of the developed
world
• Use all safe and appropriate, socially responsible and sustainable
opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also improve
‘orphan crops’
• Develop a sustainable and environmentally friendly agriculture
which combines the best of conventional plant breeding with the
new biotechnologies including marker assisted breeding and
genetic modification.
• This is what we wish to discuss with you in the next few days.
DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION AND TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE

26. The “Perfect Storm” that led to the 2007 food shortages
will be with us in the future
More people to feed
The price of fertiliser is
linked to the price of oil and
continues to rise
Consumption by large, affluent classes in
India , China,SEA and South America
40% of US Corn
used for Ethanol
Source: USDA ERS
26
High Energy Costs
Biofuels
Drought in Australia,Russian
Heatwaves and Fires in 2010
US Drought in 2012

27. SEPTEMBER 2012
JULY 2012
Recent prolonged high
temperatures and drought in the
US Corn Belt and changing
weather conditions have led to
predictions that corn yields could
be reduced by between 20 and
30% this year. Significant
reductions in yields in Europe
and Russia.

28. Mankind depends on a few crop species for food
The application of marker assisted breeding and GM technology has primarily been used
to improve food production in the major world crops such as maize and soyabean with
rice and wheat following behind. They should now be adapted to improving orphan crops
which can address food security and nutrition and provide economic benefits to
poor farmers in the developing world-sorghum,cowpea,sweet potato,groundnut,cassava

29. Conventional Plant Breeding has been very successful but yield gains are
now slowing. The new molecular technologies allow more precise and rapid
crop improvement by marker assisted selection breeding and GM
approaches. This requires the identification of the gene(s) that underlie the
traits and then combination with native traits using molecular markers
and/or GM to improve the crop
But yield gains of some
major crops are plateauing
and have not benefited
from GM Technology
Corn

30. Low crop yields are
part of the problem…

31. Maize/Corn Yields, 1961-2009
China
World Average
Africa
Source: FAO

32. Average Cereal Yields
Tons per Hectare
6
4
Agricultural productivity:
Africa 10,000 kcal/ha
Asia 25,000 kcal/ha
Global 20,000 kcal/ha
China
South Asia
2
0
Sub Saharan
Africa
(FAO 2006)

33. We have to increase PRODUCTIVITY
• Increasing productivity provides a livelihood for
people, allowing them the opportunity to stay in
their communities. This leads to local economic
growth, better education, health, political stability
and food stability. Implicit with increases in
agricultural productivity is the more efficient use and
distribution of scarce resources such as fuel and
fertiliser.
• Critically, today per capita food production in rich
countries is twice that of the poor nations. We must
increase productivity in these countries to feed the
estimated 9 billion people.

34. If Future Agriculture is to Support Everyone Adequately on
the Planet a combination of Improved and Appropriate
Technologies will be Required
• Integrated pest management
• Reduction of chemical use and energy
• Agroecology
• Water conservation
• No-till practices
• Precision agriculture where appropriate
• Conserving genetic diversity
• Orphan Crops and Specialized (biofuel?) crops
• Genetic modification by marker assisted breeding
and GM technology where appropriate
• GM is not a Silver Bullet!!

35. Why Developing/Transition Countries
Have Problems with Food?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Limited Resources
Low Agricultural Productivity
Climate Change
Diminishing Productive Land/water
Poverty; Poor Distribution of Food
Misguided Priorities by politicians
Distribution/storage/transportation
Growing Population
Low Purchasing Power
Civil Strife, War
Economic and Environmental Migration

36. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
To feed a world of 9 billion people in 2050, without
allowing for additional imports of food:
Africa has to increase its food
production by 300 percent
Latin America by 80 percent; and Asia by 70
percent. Even North America must increase food
production by 30 percent
•Without an Increase in Farm Productivity,
Additional 1.6 Billion Hectares of Arable Land will be
Needed by 2050!

37. • 60 - 80% of Africans live on small farms
• Majority are women who farm on less than 3 acres
• Land and Labour are farmers most important assets
• Farms are undercapitalized, markets inefficient
• 30 - 50% of GDP in most African nations is from agriculture
• Huge environmental, pest and logistical challenges
• Estimates of maize yields around the world:
SSA: 3.8MT/ha; SE Asia: 4MT/ha; Europe & USA: 8MT-15MT/ha
• 25% grain imported, 40% post-harvest losses
Africa Population will double by 2025 to 1.5 billion
371

38. How Do We Move Forward?
• Given present trends in population, food production, trade, and the
environment, the necessary increases in production and income
generation in rural areas cannot be achieved simply by expanding
cultivated land and using current technologies
• We must strive to attain global sustainability as a precondition for
human progress. The only realistic option is to invest in the science and
technology necessary to increase the efficiency of agriculture and
attempt to reverse the impact of man-made climate changeSUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION
• We must address population, affluence, and technology simultaneously
to move toward sustainability
• While agricultural production must be intensified to meet projected
demands for food, feed, fibre and biofuels, intensification strategies
must also change to avoid adverse environmental impacts and to reverse
the effects of past practices
We must use all safe, appropriate, socially responsible and
sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also
improve ‘orphan crops. This can be achieved by combining the best
of conventional plant breeding with the new biotechnologies including
marker assisted breeding and genetic modification of crop plants

39. We can change our future –
Science
provides us
with
tremendous
opportunities
Policy makers
have
opportunities and
(yet) time to act