The September 2015 Economic Recovery Index reached a new record level of 43, staying above 40 for a full quarter. Consumer sentiment indicators like intention to spend and willingness to borrow also reached record levels. Most consumers now see signs of improvement in the economic situation rather than it worsening. The positive outlook on spending is the most positive in years, with consumers more relaxed about spending than in the past. Overall, the document analyzes consumer sentiment indicators in Ireland and finds that the economic recovery is continuing, with momentum sustained in the third quarter of 2015.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
September 2015
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Turning Golden
The positive sentiment in recent months has
continued with our September 2015
Economic Recovery Index, which has
reached a new record level of 43, staying
above the 40 level for a full quarter so far.
Other related indicators – ‘intention to spend’
and ‘willingness to borrow’ – have also
reached record levels in our September poll.
The positive turn in sentiment we noted
during the summer looks like continuing
through the autumn, boding well for a positive
year end in terms of consumer spending
levels and growth.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to September 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 10th to 15th September 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-september-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI surged ahead in September, reaching its highest level ever:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for a full quarter so far…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Sep-09 50 28 21 1 0 18.4
Sep-10 45 32 21 2 0 19.2
Sep-11 48 30 21 1 0 19.0
Sep-12 46 28 23 2 1 20.8
Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7
Sep-14 15 33 39 13 1 38.1
Aug-15 15 29 35 19 2 40.8
Sep-15 13 29 33 24 1 43.0
a majority of consumers see signs of improvement…

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Sep-09 46 48 62 60
Sep-10 31 41 46 53
Sep-11 26 38 47 49
Sep-12 24 35 46 42
Sep-13 28 38 45 46
Sep-14 45 42 54 44
Aug-15 44 44 54 45
Sep-15 47 45 57 45
positive sentiment is stable, while any improvement is very gradual…

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Positive Outlook
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
September 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 541
Strongly Agree 18% 19% 16% 17% 20% 10% 9% 26% 19% 22% 13%
Slightly Agree 39% 36% 42% 42% 39% 35% 40% 39% 40% 41% 37%
Neither/Nor 18% 17% 18% 18% 20% 22% 17% 13% 19% 16% 19%
Slightly Disagree 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 18% 14% 11% 13% 13% 14%
Strongly Disagree 10% 11% 9% 5% 6% 14% 18% 10% 9% 5% 15%

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Sep-09 18
Sep-10 18 24 56 27
Sep-11 14 23 59 23
Sep-12 13 26 56 24
Sep-13 19 26 57 25
Sep-14 26 25 57 28
Aug-15 28 25 58 28
Sep-15 31 28 54 30
…spending sentiment is at its most positive level in years…

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Spending Uplift
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
% Agree: October 2009 to September 2015 (plus trend projection to December 2015)
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
September 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 541
Strongly Agree 10% 11% 10% 16% 15% 6% 8% 8% 11% 12% 9%
Slightly Agree 21% 20% 22% 27% 22% 18% 18% 20% 22% 23% 19%
Neither/Nor 21% 22% 21% 17% 24% 21% 16% 24% 21% 22% 20%
Slightly Disagree 23% 24% 22% 22% 19% 24% 26% 25% 20% 25% 21%
Strongly Disagree 23% 23% 23% 15% 18% 29% 32% 23% 24% 15% 29%

13. Mood of the Nation

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2015
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2015
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, September 2015
September
2015
TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 541
Enjoyment 49% 50% 48% 54% 44% 45% 42% 56% 47% 55% 44%
Happiness 48% 46% 49% 55% 50% 40% 41% 51% 46% 55% 42%
Stress 34% 32% 36% 41% 34% 41% 41% 20% 32% 34% 34%
Worry 29% 25% 33% 36% 26% 35% 32% 21% 30% 28% 30%
Anxiety 23% 20% 26% 33% 20% 25% 25% 17% 21% 22% 24%
Physical Pain 23% 20% 25% 27% 17% 24% 25% 22% 19% 20% 25%
Boredom 21% 21% 21% 38% 21% 19% 20% 13% 25% 21% 21%
Sadness 14% 13% 15% 22% 12% 16% 13% 10% 16% 14% 15%
Anger 13% 13% 14% 17% 13% 18% 12% 8% 15% 12% 14%
Loneliness 13% 12% 15% 23% 8% 15% 16% 9% 12% 13% 14%
Fear 8% 9% 8% 11% 5% 13% 12% 4% 9% 8% 9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

17. Amárach Outlook

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
We’re nearly three quarters of the way
through 2015 and our Economic Recovery
Index has sustained the momentum we saw
at the start of the summer.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
over the rest of the year – and keep you
posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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20. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/