Amarach Economic Recovery Index October 2012

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Our monthly survey of 1,000 Irish consumers about their spending and savings intentions, analysed by main bank, TV provider, electricity supplier and health insurer.

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Amarach Economic Recovery Index October 2012

  1. 1. Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingOctober 2012additional analysis by:main bank, TV subscription, electricity provider, health insurerEconomic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1
  2. 2. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to October 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 7th to 14th October 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) Our ERI Index weakened slightly in October 2012 on the previous month: Sept’12: 1% Oct’12: 0% Sept’12: 2% Oct’12: 3%Sept’12: 46% Oct’12: 48% Sept’12: 23% Oct’12: 21% Sept’12: 28% Oct’12: 28%Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI has weakened steadily since July – October’s index is below October last year, though up on October 2010: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 09 10 11 12 12 Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. Cautious Optimism: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am optimistic in spite of the recession” ABC1 C2DE October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Strongly Agree 13% 12% 14% 16% 14% 13% 11% 11% 13% 13%Slightly Agree 35% 36% 33% 36% 38% 32% 34% 34% 37% 32%Neither/Nor 15% 13% 16% 16% 16% 13% 12% 16% 17% 13%Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 17% 17% 22% 23% 21% 19% 20%Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 16% 12% 15% 20% 20% 18% 12% 21% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. Cautious Optimism: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am optimistic in spite of the recession” Quinn- Ulster Saor Electric Bord October 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Sky UPC view Ireland Gais Airtricity VHI Liberty Aviva IrelandWeighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95Strongly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 15% 18%Slightly Agree 35% 37% 36% 31% 37% 34% 38% 35% 39% 30% 41% 36% 34%Neither/Nor 15% 13% 18% 14% 16% 13% 12% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 12%Slightly Disagree 20% 18% 15% 26% 17% 22% 21% 19% 18% 24% 18% 19% 19%Strongly Disagree 17% 18% 18% 14% 19% 16% 15% 17% 16% 18% 13% 18% 15% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Heads Down: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Strongly Agree 9% 11% 7% 6% 8% 10% 7% 12% 10% 8%Slightly Agree 29% 28% 30% 31% 32% 24% 24% 33% 35% 24%Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 13% 11% 15% 12% 14% 14% 11%Slightly Disagree 23% 21% 24% 28% 28% 18% 24% 17% 20% 25%Strongly Disagree 24% 24% 25% 18% 19% 33% 32% 23% 18% 30% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Heads Down: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Quinn- Ulster Saor Electric Bord October 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Sky UPC view Ireland Gais Airtricity VHI Liberty Aviva IrelandWeighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% 12% 7% 5% 11% 17% 16%Slightly Agree 29% 30% 32% 26% 26% 35% 25% 29% 30% 32% 41% 30% 29%Neither/Nor 13% 12% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 11% 12% 16% 17%Slightly Disagree 23% 24% 21% 25% 24% 22% 27% 22% 22% 23% 20% 20% 21%Strongly Disagree 24% 24% 23% 28% 27% 20% 26% 23% 26% 28% 15% 18% 15% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: October 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012 I am saving a lot more than Impact on: I am more relaxed about before because of the recession spending money than I was a •Spending few months ago •Saving •Debt 25% 22% 26% 25% 16% •Borrowing 15% 14% 13% Oct10 Oct11 Sept12 Oct12 Oct10 Oct11 Sept12 Oct12 Paying off debts is my main I would be happy to borrow Now is a good time to buy a financial priority from a bank if I need to house for those who want to 59% 54% 56% 56% 63% 59% 62% 62% 27% 23% 24% 25% Oct10 Oct11 Sept12 Oct12 Oct10 Oct11 Sept12 Oct12 Oct10 Oct11 Sept12 Oct12 Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. Spendthrift: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” ABC1 C2DE October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4%Slightly Agree 12% 14% 10% 15% 15% 12% 10% 10% 14% 10%Neither/Nor 15% 17% 14% 16% 15% 12% 14% 19% 17% 14%Slightly Disagree 27% 27% 28% 31% 27% 27% 22% 30% 29% 26%Strongly Disagree 40% 35% 45% 33% 37% 44% 51% 39% 35% 45% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. Spendthrift: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago” Quinn- Ulster Saor Electric Bord October 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Sky UPC view Ireland Gais Airtricity VHI Liberty Aviva IrelandWeighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 3% 6% 6%Slightly Agree 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 9% 13% 11% 12% 15% 20% 14%Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15% 12% 18% 17% 17% 21%Slightly Disagree 27% 30% 25% 29% 26% 26% 29% 28% 28% 26% 33% 18% 24%Strongly Disagree 40% 37% 42% 42% 44% 39% 43% 40% 43% 40% 31% 39% 34% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. Rainy Day: 1 % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” ABC1 C2DE October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Strongly Agree 12% 12% 12% 20% 17% 10% 8% 6% 13% 11%Slightly Agree 13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 13% 13% 12% 16% 11%Neither/Nor 19% 20% 17% 24% 17% 15% 12% 22% 20% 17%Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 21% 19% 16% 19% 23% 20% 19%Strongly Disagree 34% 32% 37% 16% 33% 44% 45% 34% 29% 39% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 15
  16. 16. Rainy Day: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer – who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” Quinn- Ulster Saor Electric Bord October 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Sky UPC view Ireland Gais Airtricity VHI Liberty Aviva IrelandWeighted Sample 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95Strongly Agree 12% 11% 14% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 13% 11% 13% 14% 15%Slightly Agree 13% 11% 14% 15% 12% 17% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 12% 10%Neither/Nor 19% 20% 20% 17% 16% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19% 21% 22% 27%Slightly Disagree 20% 24% 18% 21% 20% 18% 24% 20% 19% 21% 21% 24% 19%Strongly Disagree 34% 33% 31% 34% 40% 28% 35% 34% 35% 34% 26% 29% 28% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 16
  17. 17. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% 0% Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 July July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Apr12 Oct Oct Oct Oct Jun Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jan Sept Jul May June June Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb May June Mar Aug Aug Aug Aug May May Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 17
  18. 18. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2012 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug June Aug July July July Aug June Aug Jun Jul Nov Dec Jan Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr 09 Feb Apr 10 Feb Apr 11 Nov Dec Jan Apr12 Oct Oct Oct May May May Feb May Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept Mar Sept June Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 18
  19. 19. Changing Moods: 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: October 2012 ABC1 C2DE October 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Enjoyment 53% 56% 51% 52% 46% 48% 48% 68% 57% 50%Happiness 51% 49% 53% 59% 47% 43% 51% 55% 54% 49%Stress 40% 38% 42% 50% 50% 50% 36% 21% 41% 39%Worry 40% 37% 42% 51% 39% 47% 42% 26% 39% 40%Anxiety 28% 27% 30% 36% 33% 30% 29% 17% 29% 27%Boredom 26% 26% 26% 44% 32% 23% 22% 15% 26% 27%Physical Pain 20% 18% 21% 16% 21% 22% 19% 19% 18% 21%Sadness 19% 16% 23% 25% 19% 18% 18% 18% 16% 22%Anger 13% 15% 11% 13% 17% 19% 11% 6% 12% 14%Fear 9% 8% 11% 15% 11% 12% 7% 5% 8% 10% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 19
  20. 20. Changing Moods: 2 % of Irish adults – by main bank, TV service, electricity supplier and health insurer: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: October 2012 Quinn- Ulster Saor Electric Bord October 2012 Total AIB BOI Bank Sky UPC view Ireland Gais Airtricity VHI Liberty Aviva Ireland 1000 366 289 132 422 253 137 534 213 232 230 85 95Enjoyment 53% 49% 56% 61% 53% 56% 53% 52% 54% 53% 54% 58% 54%Happiness 51% 49% 53% 53% 48% 55% 50% 51% 52% 50% 54% 51% 54%Stress 40% 42% 37% 34% 43% 41% 35% 38% 42% 43% 36% 36% 47%Worry 40% 40% 38% 35% 40% 43% 39% 41% 36% 39% 37% 30% 35%Anxiety 28% 33% 24% 28% 29% 29% 26% 29% 26% 29% 27% 24% 31%Boredom 26% 27% 24% 26% 23% 28% 27% 29% 23% 22% 23% 23% 21%Physical Pain 20% 22% 15% 18% 23% 18% 14% 19% 18% 21% 21% 25% 18%Sadness 19% 22% 19% 18% 21% 20% 16% 20% 18% 20% 18% 19% 21%Anger 13% 14% 10% 13% 15% 10% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 8% 11%Fear 9% 11% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 11% 5% 10% 9% 6% 10% Source: Amárach Research, October 2012Economic Recovery Index 20
  21. 21. Wait & See October has seen some further deterioration in expectations for Ireland’s economic recovery – though the mood is better than a year ago. This month we have continued our analysis of consumer sentiment in terms of customer categories for TV service providers, electricity suppliers and health insurers – as before, there are marked differences in mood by customer base. Overall, however, consumers appear to be adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude towards the forthcoming Budget, which will put some spending on hold. For marketers, growing market share must be the number one priority for 2013, with holding onto existing customers a close second…Economic Recovery Index 21
  22. 22. Let’s Get Visual If you find Amárach’s Economic Recovery Index useful (and we know many of you do) then you might be interested in our data visualisation initiative with Delphi Analytics. We have partnered to create an extraordinarily powerful resource online – for free – to enable marketers and others to look at the historical trend in the ERI going back to April 2009 by demographic group, main bank etc. Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual- analytics/economic-recovery-index/Economic Recovery Index 22
  23. 23. Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and internationalclients. We specialise in turning informationinto insight; and insight into foresight.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer aunique field-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:
  24. 24. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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