Our Economic Recovery Index has reached its highest level ever. Consumer spending intentions - including buying Irish - are also at their peak. This month includes a special profile of customers of Ireland's mobile phone networks in the context of economic recovery.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
January 2016
Focus on: Mobile Networks
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
A Good Start
Five years from its lowest ebb and our
Economic Recovery Index has reached its
highest level ever as we begin 2016.
Crucially, the positive outlook is translating
into marked improvements in spending
intentions, and even in ‘buying Irish’
preferences.
This month we’ve focused on the attitudes
and intentions of customers of Ireland’s
mobile networks, and we introduce a new
section in which we profile customers of
each provider on key measures such as
NPS, switching intentions & spend.
2016 has got off to a good start, let’s hope it
gathers momentum in the months ahead.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to January 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 11th to 18th January 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

4. Mobile Network
Customer Profile

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Profile of Customers by: Mobile Network
Source: PlanR Database, January 2016
January 2016 TOTAL Vodafone Meteor Three Tesco
Sample 1000 325 148 268 132
Average spend
€ per month
25.49 29.70 22.40 27.38 17.22
Net Promoter Score -14 -28 -11 -28 35
% likely to switch mobile
network in next 6 months
22% 22% 23% 21% 18%
% ever recommended their
mobile network
58% 50% 61% 47% 86%
Lifetime number of mobile
network relationships
2.8 2.7 3.1 2.7 3.0

6. Economic Recovery Index

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has reached its highest level ever at the start of 2016:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'16
The ERI is almost at the ‘halfway mark’ (50) in January 2016

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1
Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3
Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4
Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9
Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3
Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5
Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3
Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0
There has been a sea-change in economic outlook since January 2012

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Economic Outlook
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement by mobile network:
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
January 2016 TOTAL Vodafone Meteor Three Tesco
1000 325 148 268 132
The economic situation in Ireland
is getting worse
11% 9% 11% 11% 14%
The economic situation is bad but
has stabilized
27% 31% 32% 23% 23%
The economic situation is bad but
showing a few signs of
improvement
31% 29% 36% 29% 33%
The economic situation is getting
better and showing clear signs of
improvement
23% 25% 13% 27% 24%
The economic situation is good
and almost fully recovered from the
recession
3% 3% 4% 6% 1%
ERI Score 45 45.3 41.3 48.4 43.2

10. Consumer Impact

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Jan-10 52 50 61 55
Jan-11 26 39 48 49
Jan-12 21 37 45 46
Jan-13 32 40 47 47
Jan-14 41 44 53 46
Jan-15 38 40 50 40
Dec-15 43 43 51 45
Jan-16 46 49 56 50
Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ is at its highest level ever

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jan-10 21 26 60 29
Jan-11 13 22 59 22
Jan-12 14 24 57 24
Jan-13 22 27 57 27
Jan-14 23 25 57 24
Jan-15 25 23 54 26
Dec-15 30 25 52 26
Jan-16 35 28 54 30
Spending sentiment is at its highest level ever

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
Strong improvement trend in spending sentiment

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Mobile Spenders
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by mobile network):
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
January 2016 TOTAL Vodafone Meteor Three Tesco
1000 325 148 268 132
Strongly Agree 12% 11% 11% 16% 9%
Slightly Agree 22% 22% 21% 23% 27%
Neither/Nor 25% 27% 21% 25% 20%
Slightly Disagree 18% 16% 27% 14% 19%
Strongly Disagree 19% 21% 16% 20% 22%

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
Buying Irish
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
Buying Irish intentions at highest level in nearly three years

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
Mobile Irish
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by mobile network):
“I always buy Irish when I can”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
January 2016 TOTAL Vodafone Meteor Three Tesco
1000 325 148 268 132
Strongly Agree 24% 24% 23% 22% 19%
Slightly Agree 33% 32% 37% 35% 30%
Neither/Nor 22% 22% 13% 22% 28%
Slightly Disagree 10% 9% 15% 9% 11%
Strongly Disagree 6% 5% 7% 6% 5%

17. Mood of the Nation

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2016
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2016
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, January 2016
January 2016 TOTAL Vodafone Meteor Three Tesco
Sample 1000 325 148 268 132
Happiness 55% 58% 53% 52% 53%
Enjoyment 53% 55% 48% 56% 52%
Stress 33% 34% 37% 30% 37%
Worry 30% 30% 31% 30% 26%
Anxiety 25% 25% 29% 24% 25%
Physical Pain 21% 20% 20% 21% 26%
Boredom 20% 18% 24% 23% 18%
Sadness 18% 15% 22% 19% 19%
Anger 15% 13% 17% 14% 21%
Loneliness 14% 11% 14% 15% 18%
Fear 8% 8% 8% 9% 6%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by mobile network:

21. Amárach Outlook

22. 22Economic Recovery Index
2016 Beginning
2015 has been a good year when it comes to
tracking the recovery through our Economic
Recovery Index.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about
Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

23. Trends Report
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24. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/