Our monthly look at the mood of the nation through the eyes of 1,000 Irish consumers.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2015
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Moody Summer
The latest results for the July 2015 Economic
Recovery Index are positive (the index is back
above 40 for the second time), and this
despite a wet summer and bolshie seagulls.
The transformation in sentiment over these
past six years is remarkable – we link to the
July 2009 report on the next page just to let
you see for yourself.
But the picture is one of gradual change in
consumer behaviour rather than rapid change;
so paying down debt remains a priority
(though less so than in the past), and
spending intentions are higher, but only by a
little in recent months.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to July 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 18th to 25th July 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has once again broken through the 40 level, as it did back in April:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
the ERI is back above the 40 level…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0
Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0
Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3
Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5
Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3
Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7
Jun-15 14 32 35 16 2 39.8
Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1
a ‘recovery mindset’ appears to be setting in…

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Jul-09 42 47 58 60
Jul-10 42 47 55 55
Jul-11 26 39 48 49
Jul-12 27 38 45 43
Jul-13 27 39 47 45
Jul-14 37 41 48 44
Jun-15 44 41 51 40
Jul-15 40 41 51 44
positive sentiment is stable, while any improvement is very gradual…

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Bullish
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
July 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 16% 18% 14% 23% 18% 13% 13% 15% 19% 20% 13%
Slightly Agree 35% 33% 36% 35% 33% 31% 35% 38% 33% 38% 31%
Neither/Nor 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 21% 17% 15% 19% 17% 19%
Slightly Disagree 17% 16% 17% 13% 17% 20% 18% 16% 17% 16% 17%
Strongly Disagree 12% 13% 12% 6% 11% 13% 16% 15% 10% 7% 17%

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jul-09 14
Jul-10 20 27 62 27
Jul-11 17 26 59 26
Jul-12 18 25 56 25
Jul-13 19 25 56 23
Jul-14 23 24 54 23
Jun-15 30 27 54 27
Jul-15 28 24 52 27
paying off debt remains a priority, though down a little…

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Debt Detox
“My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible”
% Agree: October 2009 to July 2015
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
R² = 0.4582
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Willing Borrowers
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to”
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
July 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 11% 8% 8%
Slightly Agree 19% 20% 18% 15% 27% 21% 21% 11% 21% 23% 15%
Neither/Nor 13% 13% 13% 18% 14% 16% 12% 9% 11% 13% 14%
Slightly Disagree 21% 20% 22% 27% 18% 21% 19% 20% 20% 25% 18%
Strongly Disagree 35% 34% 35% 23% 27% 32% 39% 48% 34% 27% 41%

13. Mood of the Nation

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2015
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2015
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, July 2015
July 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Enjoyment 51% 55% 48% 56% 41% 45% 57% 58% 50% 54% 49%
Happiness 48% 48% 49% 61% 44% 41% 48% 49% 49% 53% 45%
Stress 38% 33% 43% 46% 38% 41% 43% 27% 37% 38% 37%
Worry 30% 25% 35% 37% 32% 32% 32% 22% 28% 30% 31%
Anxiety 26% 21% 30% 32% 24% 29% 23% 22% 27% 26% 26%
Physical Pain 23% 22% 25% 22% 19% 20% 27% 28% 19% 20% 27%
Boredom 21% 19% 23% 41% 18% 23% 12% 14% 18% 20% 21%
Sadness 15% 12% 18% 24% 14% 14% 10% 12% 14% 14% 15%
Anger 15% 16% 15% 21% 19% 13% 15% 11% 15% 15% 16%
Loneliness 12% 11% 14% 20% 9% 13% 11% 11% 14% 13% 12%
Fear 7% 7% 8% 10% 10% 6% 3% 7% 6% 7% 8%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

17. Amárach Outlook

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
Q3 2015 has got off to a positive start,
showing real momentum in our Economic
Recovery Index – there seems to be a
genuine willingness to spend.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
over the rest of the year – and keep you
posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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20. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/