Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2017

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Our latest look at the spending, saving and emotional intentions of Irish consumers: with a special focus on supermarket brands.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2017

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2017: Focus on Grocery Shopping
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index New Year Priorities January is always the month we take stock of our finances and financial priorities – so this month we look at our results with a focus on where people do their main grocery shopping. As we track our Economic Recovery Index going into 2017 there is troubling sign of some weakening in sentiment. No doubt as consumers become less certain about the wider economy it will begin to affect their spending and saving intentions throughout 2017 – and we’ll keep you posted as we measure what’s really going on in future editions.
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over six years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to January 2017. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th to 20th January 2017 inclusive. See how bad it was at one of the lowest points just seven years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010
  4. 4. Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, January 2017 Our Economic Recovery Index has been flat for almost 18 months
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1 Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3 Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4 Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9 Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3 Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5 Jan-16 11 28 32 24 5 45.0 Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2 Jan-17 16 28 32 20 3 41.9 Our ERI has dipped below 42.0 for the first time since April 2016
  7. 7. 7Economic Recovery Index ERI by Main Supermarket Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: Dunnes shoppers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 15% 12% 18% 13% 14% 16% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 26% 23% 23% 36% 26% 31% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 30% 30% 31% 34% 33% 24% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 19% 21% 20% 11% 18% 21% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3%
  8. 8. Consumer Impact
  9. 9. 9Economic Recovery Index Recession, Resilience & Recovery We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery Index’ back in April 2009 Over these past seven years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending, borrowing and saving intentions. We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the part of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro- economic uncertainties. In this section we look at some of the key indicators when it comes to consumer spending and saving intentions.
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Jan-10 52 50 61 55 Jan-11 26 39 48 49 Jan-12 21 37 45 46 Jan-13 32 40 47 47 Jan-14 41 44 53 46 Jan-15 38 40 50 40 Jan-16 46 49 56 50 Dec-16 35 46 54 46 Jan-17 31 44 49 40 Overall optimism has fallen back strongly from its peak in April 2015
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Jan-10 21 26 60 29 Jan-11 13 22 59 22 Jan-12 14 24 57 24 Jan-13 22 27 57 27 Jan-14 23 25 57 24 Jan-15 25 23 54 26 Jan-16 35 28 54 30 Dec-16 36 34 50 35 Jan-17 28 28 55 33 Last month’s spending intention indicator has fallen back to the same level a year ago
  12. 12. 12Economic Recovery Index Spending Intentions by Main Supermarket Agreement with statement: ‘I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago’ Aldi shoppers are more likely to disagree they are ‘relaxed about spending’ TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl Strongly Agree 8% 7% 10% 9% 5% 7% Slightly Agree 20% 22% 17% 21% 23% 18% Neither/Nor 30% 31% 33% 23% 27% 30% Slightly Disagree 20% 20% 18% 24% 19% 23% Strongly Disagree 19% 15% 20% 17% 24% 18%
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index Price Sensitivity by Main Supermarket Agreement with statement: ‘I always buy the lowest price products or services’ Aldi shoppers are more driven by price considerations than others TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl Strongly Agree 22% 22% 17% 18% 28% 24% Slightly Agree 31% 30% 28% 24% 34% 34% Neither/Nor 22% 21% 24% 26% 20% 21% Slightly Disagree 15% 18% 17% 17% 12% 14% Strongly Disagree 5% 5% 9% 10% 3% 4%
  14. 14. Mood of the Nation
  15. 15. 15Economic Recovery Index The Real Mood of the Nation When we started measuring and reporting the Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another ‘confidence index’. We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative ones – in order to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation. Lately some interesting but rather strange things have emerged: our levels of stress and anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever, but our level of happiness is trending downwards as well, despite the recovery. The following charts show the trends to January 2017.
  16. 16. 16Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017 Source: Amárach Research, January 2017 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'17 Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  17. 17. 17Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2017 Source: Amárach Research, January 2017 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'17 Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  18. 18. 18Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – III Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: January 2017 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl Happiness 46% 41% 49% 44% 47% 52% Enjoyment 27% 28% 23% 18% 32% 28% Stress 21% 18% 28% 14% 21% 24% Worry 29% 32% 24% 22% 33% 28% Anxiety 19% 20% 18% 15% 21% 21% Physical Pain 33% 34% 30% 30% 38% 32% Boredom 14% 12% 17% 7% 16% 15% Sadness 46% 40% 49% 50% 47% 49% Anger 10% 11% 8% 4% 15% 8% Loneliness 23% 27% 22% 16% 26% 21% Fear 15% 15% 12% 9% 16% 18% None of the above 9% 14% 7% 13% 7% 6% Lidl shoppers are the happiest citizens overall
  19. 19. Amárach Outlook
  20. 20. 20Economic Recovery Index The Year Ahead We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2017 – and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s consumer needs. We hope you find this edition of the Economic Recovery Index helpful and please do get in contact if you want to discuss how it can be applied to your brand planning requirements in 2017 and beyond. Finally, we’d like to wish you a Happy New Year from all of us in Amárach. For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  21. 21. 21Economic Recovery Index PlanR Database We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index. We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard) here: Contact us for subscription details and information about special offers and join more than two dozen other organisations using their own customised planning dashboard. http://getplanr.com/planr-data
  22. 22. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch s. slideshare.net/amarach/

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