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Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2012

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A monthly survey of Irish consumer views and plans in relation to the economy, savings, and spending.

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2012

  1. 1. Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2012 © Amárach ResearchEconomic Recovery Index 1
  2. 2. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our „emotional progress‟ towards recovery alongside our „economic progress‟. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported „happiness‟ and „enjoyment‟ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to January 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 18th-25th January 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below) The consumer outlook remains relatively unchanged since the end of 2011: Dec’11: 0% Jan’12: 0% Dec’11: 2% Jan’12: 2% Dec’11: 59% Jan’12: 58% Dec’11: 15% Jan’12: 16% Dec’11: 24% Jan’12: 24%Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. The Stages of Recovery Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group: ABC1 C2DE JANUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525 The economic situation in Ireland is 57% 55% 58% 42% 53% 64% 62% 60% 53% 60% getting worse The economic situation is bad but 24% 24% 23% 30% 25% 24% 21% 21% 26% 22% has stabilized The economic situation is bad but 15% 16% 15% 20% 17% 7% 15% 18% 18% 14% showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0 1% 1% 1% clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and 1% 1% * 1% * 0 1% * 1% * almost fully recovered from the recession Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). In January 2012, the ERI stood at 15.4, up marginally from December‟s 15.1: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr 09 July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan 12 Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41% 43% 39% 48% 41%44% 42%43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28% 34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23% 22% 21% 26% 18% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Jan12 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan Jan Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 49% 45% 55% 54%52% 53% 46% 41% 44% 42% 39% 51% 50% 44% 33% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Jan12 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45% 45% 41% 41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39% 48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38% 38% 34% 33% 37% 45% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan12 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50% 49% 46% 49% 45% 45% 46% 52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 44% 43% 53% 51% 50% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 11 Jan12 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. Running Out of Road % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE JANUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525Strongly Agree 8% 7% 9% 9% 10% 4% 5% 10% 11% 6%Slightly Agree 29% 30% 29% 29% 32% 24% 29% 32% 34% 26%Neither/Nor 12% 14% 10% 21% 11% 14% 7% 9% 13% 11%Slightly Disagree 21% 23% 20% 16% 20% 24% 22% 24% 21% 22%Strongly Disagree 26% 24% 29% 22% 24% 33% 33% 23% 20% 32% Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43% 42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12%12% 18% 20% 11% 14% May May Dec Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan12 Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15%15% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% May May Dec Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 11 Jan12 Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: January 2010, 2011, 2012 & December 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 26% 27% •Debt 21% 13% 14% 14% 22% 24% •Borrowing Jan10 Jan11 Dec11 Jan12 Jan10 Jan11 Dec11 Jan12 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 60% 59% 56% 57% 66% 58% 61% 54% 29% 22% 22% 24% Jan10 Jan11 Dec11 Jan12 Jan10 Jan11 Dec11 Jan12 Jan10 Jan11 Dec11 Jan12 Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. Rainy Day Syndrome % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” ABC1 C2DE JANUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525Strongly Agree 8% 9% 8% 16% 12% 8% 3% 4% 8% 9%Slightly Agree 16% 18% 14% 23% 21% 17% 9% 10% 18% 14%Neither/Nor 20% 18% 22% 21% 15% 15% 22% 24% 21% 19%Slightly Disagree 19% 21% 17% 19% 16% 20% 21% 18% 20% 18%Strongly Disagree 36% 32% 40% 18% 34% 40% 44% 42% 33% 39% Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% Oct Oct Oct Sept Sept Sept Jul Jan 12 Feb Feb May Jun Jan Jan July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec June June Apr 09 Mar Apr 10 Mar Apr 11 Aug Aug Aug May May Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Feb Feb Jun Oct Jan Oct Jan Oct Sept Sept Sept May May May July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Apr 11 Jul Jan 12 Apr 09 Apr 10 June June Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: January 2012 ABC1 C2DE JANUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525Happiness 52% 52% 52% 63% 51% 47% 46% 52% 54% 49%Enjoyment 50% 51% 50% 53% 49% 41% 48% 59% 53% 48%Stress 43% 43% 44% 54% 45% 50% 42% 32% 40% 47%Worry 43% 41% 44% 42% 49% 43% 42% 37% 41% 44%Anxiety 32% 31% 32% 31% 29% 37% 31% 31% 31% 32%Boredom 29% 29% 28% 49% 34% 25% 19% 19% 28% 30%Physical Pain 22% 21% 23% 22% 14% 24% 26% 24% 20% 24%Sadness 20% 18% 23% 27% 18% 17% 17% 22% 18% 22%Anger 17% 18% 15% 22% 17% 22% 14% 12% 16% 17%Fear 12% 13% 11% 15% 12% 13% 8% 12% 9% 15% Source: Amárach Research, January 2012Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. Recovery State of Mind Our first Economic Recovery Index for 2012 points to a continuation of consumer sentiment and behaviours from late 2011. Overall, there has been some improvement is a few of the indicators – e.g.: a bounce back in the percentage optimistic despite the recession. We have extended our analysis of components of the ERI to include social class as well as age and gender – and the differences are marked. The message is clear: businesses targeting Irish consumers this year will have to segment their target market – not just in terms of standard demographics, but also in terms of states of mind.Economic Recovery Index 15
  16. 16. Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and international clients.Our team of 30 research & support staff haveworked with most of Ireland‟s top 200companies. Every year we survey over100,000 people at home and abroad, as wellas running hundreds of focus groups.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer a uniquefield-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:
  17. 17. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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