Our monthly look at Irish consumer sentiment in relation to the economy, spending, borrowing and saving.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
August 2015
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Indian Summer
The positive sentiment in recent months has
continued with our August 2015 Economic
Recovery Index, which has reached a new
record level, staying above the 40 level for
the second month running.
So despite the damp summer, Irish
consumers remain positive and certainly see
an improvement in the wider economy, even
if they continue to exercise caution when it
comes to prioritising debt repayments over
borrowing.
We seem to be enjoying an economic ‘Indian
Summer’ for now, even if the global outlook
appears increasingly cloudy…

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to August 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th to 21st August 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was six years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-august-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The ERI has stayed above the 40 level for two months, reaching its highest level ever:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for two months running…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0
Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0
Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3
Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7
Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7
Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2
Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1
Aug-15 15 29 35 19 2 40.8
a ‘recovery mindset’ appears to be setting in…

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Aug-09 43 48 60 61
Aug-10 39 46 50 54
Aug-11 24 34 48 46
Aug-12 27 39 47 46
Aug-13 32 38 44 43
Aug-14 41 44 53 47
Jul-15 40 41 51 44
Aug-15 44 44 54 45
positive sentiment is stable, while any improvement is very gradual…

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Feeling Comfortable
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
August 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 13% 16% 9% 16% 13% 6% 6% 19% 16% 18% 8%
Slightly Agree 33% 32% 33% 33% 32% 29% 32% 37% 35% 39% 28%
Neither/Nor 16% 17% 15% 16% 18% 19% 14% 13% 18% 14% 18%
Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 20% 15% 20% 25% 24% 19% 18% 17% 23%
Strongly Disagree 15% 12% 18% 12% 13% 17% 22% 13% 11% 9% 20%

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Aug-09 16
Aug-10 19 26 62 31
Aug-11 14 25 57 23
Aug-12 17 28 54 25
Aug-13 18 25 55 25
Aug-14 28 27 56 27
Jul-15 28 24 52 27
Aug-15 28 25 58 28
paying off debt has increased as a priority…

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Borrowing Potential
“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to”
% Agree: October 2009 to August 2015
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Spending Intentions
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
August 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Strongly Agree 7% 8% 5% 7% 9% 4% 4% 8% 8% 7% 6%
Slightly Agree 21% 23% 19% 29% 22% 18% 13% 22% 22% 25% 18%
Neither/Nor 21% 25% 18% 13% 20% 22% 20% 27% 23% 24% 19%
Slightly Disagree 26% 21% 30% 28% 25% 28% 27% 22% 26% 22% 28%
Strongly Disagree 23% 20% 26% 16% 22% 26% 35% 21% 19% 19% 26%

13. Mood of the Nation

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2015
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2015
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, August 2015
August 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540
Enjoyment 56% 57% 54% 63% 44% 48% 60% 64% 50% 56% 55%
Happiness 54% 52% 56% 64% 51% 50% 52% 53% 47% 54% 53%
Stress 32% 27% 37% 39% 37% 36% 33% 21% 30% 31% 33%
Worry 26% 23% 29% 32% 24% 26% 28% 23% 28% 23% 28%
Boredom 23% 22% 24% 45% 27% 18% 20% 10% 19% 19% 26%
Physical Pain 22% 21% 24% 21% 18% 17% 26% 29% 22% 18% 26%
Anxiety 21% 17% 23% 23% 22% 18% 23% 18% 23% 20% 21%
Sadness 14% 13% 16% 22% 16% 10% 11% 13% 13% 13% 15%
Anger 12% 12% 11% 15% 14% 10% 12% 9% 12% 10% 13%
Loneliness 12% 12% 12% 18% 13% 7% 13% 10% 11% 12% 12%
Fear 7% 7% 7% 10% 10% 5% 9% 4% 10% 7% 8%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

17. Amárach Outlook

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
We’re two thirds through the year and our
Economic Recovery Index shows real
momentum – there seems to be a genuine
willingness to borrow and spend.
We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress
over the rest of the year – and keep you
posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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20. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/