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Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2017

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Our latest report confirms a definite plateau in consumer spending sentiment.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2017

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing May 2017
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Summer Reflections Our May report confirms a trend we have noticed since late 2015/early 2016 – both economic sentiment and spending sentiment have levelled off and are now at a plateau. That said, as we track our Economic Recovery Index in Q2 2017 there are good signs of resilience and even buoyancy on some measures, for example in relation to ‘buying Irish’. The emotional toll of recent years has seen a weakening in positive emotions but also negative emotions: perhaps the psychological impact of the recession is felt at a lag?
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to May 2017. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 16th to 22nd May 2017 inclusive. See how bad it was some eight years ago: https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009
  4. 4. Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, May 2017 Our Economic Recovery Index has plateaued in past 18 months
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0 May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8 May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1 May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2 May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3 May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4 May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4 May-16 12 29 33 24 2 43.9 Apr-17 14 24 35 24 3 44.6 May-17 15 27 31 24 3 43.3 We’re an awful lot more bullish than eight years ago, though not much than last year
  7. 7. Consumer Impact
  8. 8. 8Economic Recovery Index Recession, Resilience & Recovery We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery Index’ back in April 2009 Over these past eight years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending, borrowing and saving intentions. We’ve seen remarkable resilience on the part of the Irish people when it comes to ‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-economic uncertainties. In this section we look at some of the key indicators when it comes to consumer spending and saving intentions.
  9. 9. 9Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me May-09 41 48 59 62 May-10 40 44 53 51 May-11 28 40 53 50 May-12 25 38 47 45 May-13 25 39 45 46 May-14 38 39 49 45 May-15 39 43 52 41 May-16 43 47 55 50 Apr-17 33 44 53 40 May-17 35 43 53 39 Optimism has remained strong in the past few months
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to May-09 15 May-10 19 26 61 28 May-11 17 26 61 26 May-12 18 27 56 27 May-13 18 24 56 24 May-14 23 23 59 25 May-15 27 24 51 24 May-16 32 30 51 29 Apr-17 32 28 57 37 May-17 28 35 52 33 Consumer borrowing intentions are well up compared to a year ago
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Spending sentiment has levelled off along with economic sentiment Spending Slowdown The recovery in spending sentiment has also plateaued in the past 18 months:
  12. 12. Mood of the Nation
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index The Real Mood of the Nation When we started measuring and reporting the Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another ‘confidence index’. We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative ones – in order to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation. Lately some interesting but rather strange things have emerged: our levels of stress and anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever, but our level of happiness is trending downwards as well, despite the recovery. The following charts show the trends to May 2017:
  14. 14. 14Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2017 Source: Amárach Research, May 2017 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'17 Feb Mar Apr May Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  15. 15. 15Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2017 Source: Amárach Research, May 2017 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'17 Feb Mar Apr May Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  16. 16. Amárach Outlook
  17. 17. 19Economic Recovery Index Get Planning We’ll keep tracking consumer progress into 2017 – and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s consumer needs. We hope you find this edition of the Economic Recovery Index helpful and please do get in contact if you want to discuss how it can be applied to your brand planning requirements in 2017 and beyond. With mid-year around the corner there’s lots to be doing as 2017 gathers momentum. For more on the ERI (including 8 years worth of data) see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  18. 18. 20Economic Recovery Index PlanR Database We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index. We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard) here: Try out the free version for a one week trial period. http://getplanr.com/
  19. 19. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch s. slideshare.net/amarach/

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