The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009

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Monthly index of consumer sentiment in relation to economic recovery.

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The Economic Recovery Index September Results 2009

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing September Index Results © Amárach Research 2009
  2. 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs All recessions end in recovery – so will this one The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? Amárach Research has developed the Economic Recovery Index to help us track the economic cycle more closely This report summarises the ERI results for April to September 2009 The July fieldwork was conducted on 21st-25th September inclusive Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  3. 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  4. 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement September has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse April 0% September 0% April 1% September 1% April 77% September 50% 50% April 8% September 21% 21% April 14% 14% September 27% 27% Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak) The ERI has improved strongly through August and September, recovering all of the ground lost in June-July 2009 ERI Score 0 100 April 8.3 April May 16.3 May Sept June 17.8 June July 15.0 July August August 17.0 Amárach Research September 18.4 Economic Recovery Index
  6. 6. 6 Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: August and September 2009 Ireland will be through the I am optimistic in spite of The recession is worst of the recession the current economic affecting other people in 12 months time situation more than it is affecting 46% me 62% 43% 61% 60% 60% August September August September August September I feel financially I am more relaxed about Now is a good time for comfortable enough to spending money than I young people to buy their make it through the was a few months ago first home recession 18% 48% 48% 55% 55% 16% August September August September August September Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  7. 7. 7 Mood of the Nation Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? August and September 2009 60% 61% 55% 52% 47% 47% 37% 39% 23% 22% 18% 18% 19% 15% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Anger Pain August September Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  8. 8. 8 Insights & Implications Sometimes you know you have passed a significant milestone when you see it in the rear view mirror: so have we just passed one when equal proportions of the population feel the recession is getting worse as feel it is no longer getting worse? We have also seen an upward shift in the percentage agreeing they are ‘more relaxed about spending money’ for the first time – one sign of potential improvement in consumer markets Also, despite the continuing uncertainty on the domestic and international economic fronts, the people of Ireland continue to enjoy more happiness and enjoyment than stress and sadness – perhaps we’re ready for some good news after all? Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  9. 9. 9 About Amárach Amárach Research is a full service market research agency The questions for the Economic Recovery Index are run on our monthly online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine: Consumer Foresight More information at: www.amarach.com Check out our blog here: www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  10. 10. 10 Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Bernadette Coyne – Managing Director Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com bernadette.coyne@amarach.com W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

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