Irish consumers more bullish about the outlook for the economy, and their own financial prospects. Good news for Q4 2014...

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing September 2014
© Amárach Research

2. 2
Economic Recovery Index
Cautious Optimism The clouds are lifting, but people haven’t put away their umbrellas: nevertheless, our survey shows continuing improvement in consumer feelings about the economy, and a growing willingness to spend. The Economic Recovery Index reached another record high this month, following a series of highs since the spring. A majority of Irish people continue to say the economy is clearly improving; only a minority feel it’s bad or just stable. As we enter the last quarter of 2014, the prospects for Irish consumer markets have improved markedly compared to the first quarter…

3. 3
Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to September 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 12th-20th September 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5
Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index reached a new record level in September 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
the ERI is getting closer to the 40 barrier…

6. 6
Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Aug ’14: 16%
Sept ’14: 15%
Aug ’14: 33%
Sept ’14: 33%
Aug ’14: 38%
Sept ’14: 39%
Aug ’14: 13%
Sept ’14: 13%
Aug ’14: 0%
Sept ’14: 1% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:

7. 7
Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement:
%
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered
Economic Recovery Index
Sep-09
50
28
21
1
0
18.4
Sep-10
45
32
21
2
0
19.2
Sep-11
48
30
21
1
0
19.0
Sep-12
46
28
23
2
1
20.8
Sep-13
35
31
30
4
0
25.7
Aug-14
16
33
38
13
0
37.2
Sep-14
15
33
39
13
1
38.1
twice as many people see signs of improvement as five years ago

8. 8
Economic Recovery Index
Uneven Recovery
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin)
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
September 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
25-34
35-44
45-54
BOI
PTSB
Dunnes
O2
V’fone
1000
494
506
223
187
156
284
172
159
207
353
The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse
14%
14%
15%
12%
16%
16%
13%
19%
12%
15%
13%
The economic situation is bad but has stabilized
32%
32%
32%
36%
34%
35%
36%
25%
33%
31%
34%
The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement
38%
36%
41%
36%
35%
41%
37%
37%
41%
41%
38%
The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement
13%
16%
9%
11%
12%
8%
13%
17%
11%
11%
13%
The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession
1%
*
1%
1%
0
0
*
1%
0
*
*
ERI Score
38.1
39.2
37.0
37.2
35.8
36.2
38.5
38.6
38.2
37.7
38.6

9. Consumer Impact

10. 10
Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me
Sep-09
46
48
62
60
Sep-10
31
41
46
53
Sep-11
26
38
47
49
Sep-12
24
35
46
42
Sep-13
28
38
45
46
Aug-14
41
44
53
47
Sep-14
45
42
54
44
nearly half expect Ireland to be through worst of recession in 12 months time

11. 11
Economic Recovery Index
Unaffected?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Right now the recession is affecting other people more than it’s affecting me”
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
September 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
25-34
35-44
45-54
BOI
PTSB
Dunnes
O2
V’fone
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
223
187
156
284
172
159
207
353
Strongly Agree
18%
20%
16%
15%
20%
13%
23%
16%
19%
21%
19%
Slightly Agree
26%
25%
28%
30%
22%
18%
23%
27%
33%
26%
27%
Neither/Nor
18%
20%
16%
17%
22%
20%
16%
23%
17%
15%
18%
Slightly Disagree
20%
19%
21%
20%
20%
27%
24%
13%
17%
20%
18%
Strongly Disagree
15%
15%
16%
14%
15%
20%
11%
20%
13%
15%
16%

12. 12
Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession
My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible
I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to
Sep-09
18
Sep-10
18
24
56
27
Sep-11
14
23
59
23
Sep-12
13
26
56
24
Sep-13
19
26
57
25
Aug-14
28
27
56
27
Sep-14
26
25
57
28
willingness to borrow from banks continues to improve cautiously

13. 13
Economic Recovery Index
Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I would be happy to borrow from the bank if I needed to”
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
September 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
25-34
35-44
45-54
BOI
PTSB
Dunnes
O2
V’fone
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
223
187
156
284
172
159
207
353
Strongly Agree
8%
11%
6%
8%
12%
10%
7%
9%
9%
13%
9%
Slightly Agree
19%
22%
17%
25%
24%
20%
21%
18%
16%
19%
19%
Neither/Nor
14%
17%
12%
19%
14%
12%
15%
14%
19%
11%
13%
Slightly Disagree
21%
19%
23%
17%
21%
23%
20%
21%
20%
19%
21%
Strongly Disagree
33%
31%
35%
27%
28%
33%
34%
34%
33%
35%
36%

14. 14
Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I always buy the lowest price products or services
I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers
I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services
I always buy Irish when I can
Apr-13
57
71
52
52
May-13
58
69
54
54
Jun-13
55
70
55
51
Jul-13
56
70
52
53
Aug-13
57
70
53
53
Sep-13
59
72
53
54
Oct-13
58
69
52
51
Nov-13
56
69
55
51
Dec-13
54
68
54
53
Jan-14
59
74
56
54
Feb-14
56
70
57
52
Mar-14
57
68
56
48
Apr-14
56
69
54
50
May-14
60
72
55
51
Jun-14
55
70
58
52
Jul-14
58
72
58
48
Aug-14
56
71
60
51
Sep-14
55
74
61
53

15. Mood of the Nation

16. 16
Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2014
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr '09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry

17. 17
Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2014
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr '09
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
June
Aug
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger

18. 18
Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, September 2014
September 2014
TOTAL
Male
Female
25-34
35-44
45-54
BOI
PTSB
Dunnes
O2
V’fone
1000
494
506
223
187
156
284
172
159
207
353
Enjoyment
59%
61%
58%
53%
58%
62%
62%
62%
56%
61%
59%
Happiness
56%
57%
55%
49%
58%
57%
61%
54%
57%
56%
56%
Stress
41%
36%
46%
49%
40%
44%
40%
42%
46%
38%
43%
Worry
37%
37%
37%
45%
41%
40%
38%
35%
37%
36%
38%
Anxiety
31%
27%
34%
37%
31%
25%
33%
35%
27%
33%
28%
Boredom
25%
25%
25%
30%
23%
22%
24%
28%
25%
24%
23%
Physical Pain
24%
21%
27%
21%
19%
26%
24%
30%
25%
29%
24%
Sadness
21%
18%
25%
21%
17%
23%
23%
18%
17%
25%
18%
Anger
15%
17%
13%
18%
15%
14%
18%
16%
12%
15%
13%
Fear
10%
11%
10%
12%
13%
10%
12%
13%
10%
10%
9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: September 2014

19. Amárach Outlook

20. 20
Economic Recovery Index
Autumnal Turn Moods are catching, so if the current emotional and intentional momentum continues we can expect to see a gradual increase in the share of consumers more prepared to open their purses & wallets. Only then will the recovery become much more manifest for the nation as a whole. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

21. we ask better questions so you get better answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

22. Amárach Research and Chilli Pepper Marketing have created the inaugural Loyalty Performance Index (LPI) and report, which is the first ever independent report on loyalty programmes in Ireland.
This unique research model has been developed to identify loyalty winners and provide useful benchmarking data for any Brands currently running or planning to embark on a loyalty programme.
If Brands would like to arrange a confidential briefing on the Loyalty Performance Index, then contact either: Gerard O’Neill (gerard.oneill@amarach.com) or Leanne Papaioannou (leanne@chillipepper.ie)

23. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch