1. Master’s Seminar
on
Impact of Climate Change in Rainfed Agriculture
Submitted to-
Dr. THOMAS ABRAHAM
Professor,
Dept. of Agronomy,
Allahabad School of Agriculture,
SHIATS
Submitted by-
SUNIL JAKHAR
M.Sc.(Ag.) Agronomy
I.D.No. :16MSAGRO013
Department of Agronomy,
SHIATS
COURSE CODE: AGRN-780
2. INTRODUCTION
• Climate is one of the main determinants of
agricultural production.
•Climate change and agriculture are inter related
processes, both of which take place on a global
scale, global warming is projected to have
significance impact on conditions affecting
agriculture , including temperature , CO2, glacial
runoff , precipitation and interaction of these
elements.
3. DEFINITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
According to Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘climate
change’ refers to change in the state of
the climate that can be identified by
change in the mean or variability of its
properties and that persists for
extended periods.
4. Climate is affected by many factors
ABIOTIC FACTORS: BIOTIC FACTORS:
1.Topography 1.Transpiration
2.Altitude 2.Respiration
3.Latidude 3.Photosynthesis
4.Ocean currents 4.Decomposition
5.Solar Radiation
6.Evaporation
5. Impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture
Soil: Drier, reduced productivity
Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply
Pests: Increased ranges and populations
Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in south Asia
Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress
Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning
Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output
Agricultural productivity in India was estimated to decrease by
2.5 to 10% by 2020(FAO) to 5 to 30% by 2050 (IPCC assessment
6. Role of Agriculture in climate change
• Emission of green house gases from crops.
• Cultivation of land.
• Intensive agriculture practices.
• Use of chemical fertilizers.
• Respiration activities.
• Burnings of straws, stubbles etc.
• Decomposition of organic matter.
• Anaerobic rice cultivation.
• Livestock activities.
7. Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
Climate Change
Impact on rainfed agriculture
Adaptation
Vulnerability
Figure 1. Climate Change and Agriculture
Climate Change and Agriculture
9. • Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74℃
during last 100 years.
• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused
by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.
• Temperatures greater increase in rabi seasion.
• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif.
• More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations.
• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.
Global climate change
10. Estimates of Future
Levels of CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099
11. Figure 2. PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE CHANGE
Indirect effects
•Soil fertility
•Irrigation availability
•Pest
•Flood and droughts
Socio economic
•Policy
•Trade
•Farmer’s response
Direct effect on
crop
•Physiology
•Morphology
Human interventions
Adaptation strategies
Mitigation strategies
Agricultural production and
vulnerability
13. Research Objectives
•To study the response of rainfed crops’
yield and production to different scenarios
of variation in climatic conditions (e.g.,
rainfall precipitation and temperature).
• New and relevant technical knowledge
can be applied.
14. Table 1. Expected changes in temperature and
rainfall in India
Year Season
Temperature change(℃) Rainfall change (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2050s
2020s
2080s
Rabi
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
Rabi
Kharif
1.08
2.54
0.87
1.81
4.14
2.91
1.54
1.81
-1.95
1.12 5.10
3.18
4.36
-9.22
6.31
2.37 7.18
24.83
4.62
3.82
10.52
4.50
10.10 15.18
Source: Rupakumar et al.,2006
15. Table 2. Alternate crops suitable for delayed sowing
conditions in some arid areas
Locations
Normal sowing Delayed sowing Both situation
Hisar (Haryana) Pearl millet, clusterbean Cowpea(short
duration)
Greengram,
clusterbean
Anantpur (A.P.) Sorghum, pigeonpea,
greengram, castor
millet, groundnut,
sunflower, horsegram
Pearl millet
Dantiwada
(Gujrat)
Pearl millet, castor, cotton Castor, clusterbean
(drought
tolerence)
Sorghum,
greengram
Jodhpur
(Rajasthan)
Pearl millet, clusterbean, Clusterbean, castor,
Red gram(Short
duration)
Greengram,
cowpea,
mothbean
Suitable crops
Source: Kalra et al., 2008
16. Table 3. Effect of drought on rainfed
crop yield in Dharwad District
Crop Percent loss of
normal yield
Sorghum 43.03%
Maize 14.09%
Groundnut 34.09%
Wheat 48.68%
cotton 59.96%
Source: Asha et al.,2012
17. 40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Production,Mtons
Year
Figure 3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on
Wheat Production in India
Source: Aggarwal et al.,2002
18. Table 5. Effect in increased temp. on
productivity of crops in punjab
Crops
Temperature rise
1℃ 2℃ 3 ℃
Per cent reduction in yield
Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7
Rice
Maize
Groundnut
7.4 25.1
14.6 21.410.4
8.7 23.2 36.2
5.4
Ludhiana Source: Hundal and Kaur, 1996
19. Table 6. Reason for reduction in yield
and net revenue
Factors
Small
Farmers
Medium
Farmers
Large
Farmers
Total
Farmers
Change in
temperature
53.33 40.00 33.33 42.22
Rainfall 100.00 93.33 92.2283.33
73.33
60.00
72.22
46.6726.6753.33
7.780.00
83.33
16.67
Others factors/no
idea
Pest and Disease
Soil fertility and
erosion
60.00
6.67
Source: Asha et al., 2012
20. Key adaptation strategies
1. Improving land and water
management
2. New varieties: drought/heat resistant
3. New farm management practices
4. Change in land use
5. Watershed management
6. Agri-insurance
21. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
• Farmers at very few locations are aware of
climatic change adaptation strategies like
change in the cropping system.
•
• Watershed management.
• Require careful management of resource like
soil, water, biodiversity.
• Adopt in Agro-forestry system.
New varieties: drought/heat resistant.
22. REFERENCES
• Asha L.K.V., Munisamy, G., Bhat, A.R.S., August 2012. Impact of
Climate Change on Rainfed Agriculture In India: A case study of
Dharwad. International Journal of Environmental Science and
Development, Vol. 3, (368-371)
• Hebbar K.B., Venugopalan A.H., Prakash A.H.,2013. Simulating the
impacts of climate change on cotton production in India. Climate
Change(2013) 118:701-713
• Hundal, S.S. and Kaur, P:1996. Climate change and its impact on
crop productivity in the Punjab, India’, In Climate Variability and
Agriculture . 408-415
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
