2. Seminar II
on
Impact of climate change on sustainable
production and productivity of rice
Shantappa Duttarganvi
II year Ph.D
Department of Agronomy

3. Sequence of presentation…
Introduction
Impact of climate change on rice
Strategies for mitigation
Conclusion
Future line of work

4. INTRODUCTION

5. Global warming
 Global warming refers to an increase in average global
temperature which in turn causes climate change
 The average global air temperature increased by 0.74
± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) by the end of 2005
 The global temperatures increases to 1.8 – 6.4 °C by
2100 AD
 Sea levell going raise 0.18 to 0.59 mt
IPCC, 2009

6. Variations of the Earth's surface temperature
IPCC, 2009
for the past 140 years

7. GISStemperature2011with
Colorbar_WMV V9.wmv

8. Projected future regional patterns of warming based on the
emissions scenarios NASA

9. IPCC, 2007

10. Why GHG makes a big effect on climate…?
 Part
of
the
infrared
waves
is
trapped
by
the
atmosphere making the earth warm
 Because of too much GHGs that thicken the atmosphere

11. Carbon –dioxide emission from different
countries
Country
Metric tons
USA
20.01
Europe
9.40
Japan
9.87
China
3.60
Russia
11.71
India
1.02
World average
4.25
IPCC,2009

12. Percentage change in sector emissions in developed and
developing country groups, 1990 to 2020
UNEP, 2006

13. Climate change

Changes in measures of temperature and rainfall

It may be cooling or warming of climate
Climate change may result from
 Natural factors
 Natural processes within the climate system
 Human activities

14. Green house gases for Climate
change
 Carbon Di-oxide
 Methane
 Halocarbons – CFCs & HFCs (Montreal protocol)
 N2O
 Water vapour

15. Share of different agriculture sectors in
climate change
National Communication on Climate Change, 2004

16. Agriculture as GHG contributor

Potential contributor it accounts for 15%

Major contributing activities
- Deforestation
- Burning of crop residue
- Raising large herd of cattle’s and other ruminants
- N-fertilization

17. Evidences of Climate Change
Physical evidence
Biological evidence
1. Rise in atmospheric temp
and CO2 level
1. Early blossoming of trees
1. Depletion in rainfall
2. Appearance of grasses in
Antartica
2. Shifting and shrinking of
cooling period
3. Changing cropping pattern
3. Changing pattern of monsoon
4. Occurrence of natural disaster
Kurukshetra, 2008

18. Future impacts of climate change in India
 Decreased snow cower
 Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed
agriculture
 Drop in wheat production by 4-5 mt with 10 C raise in
temperature
 Raising sea level
 Increased frequency and intensity of floods

19. Earthquake in Gujrat-2001
Mumbai Flood-2005
Tsunami in South East-Asia

20. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941
Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004
IPCC

21. Impact of sea level rise
IPCC, 2009

22.  > 25m children will be malnourished
 Irrigated wheat yield will decreased by 30%
 Irrigated rice yield 15%
 Climate change will increase prices in 2050 by
90% for wheat, 12% for rice and 35% for maize
At least US$7 billion a year are necessary to improve agricultural
productivity to prevent adverse effects on children.
IFPRI

23. Impact of climate change on rice
production

24. Impact of climate change on Rice
production
An increase of 2 - 4oC results to 15% reduction in
yields
Rainfed and drought prone areas-17 to 40%
Water scarcity affects 23mha in Assia
Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was
nullified by an increase of temperature

25. Critical temperatures for the development of
rice plant at different growth stages
Critical temperature (0C)
Growth stages
Low
High
Optimum
16-19
45
18-40
Seedling emergence
12
35
25-30
Rooting
16
35
25-28
Leaf elongation
7-12
45
31
Tillering
9-16
33
25-31
15
-
-
15-20
30
-
Anthesis
22
35-36
30-33
Ripening
12-18
>30
20-29
Germination
Initiation of panicle
Panicle differentiation
Nguyen, 2006

26. Contd…
Symptoms of heat stress in rice
Growth stage
Symptoms
Vegetative
White leaf tip, chlorotic & white
bands and specks
Reproductive stage
Reduce spikelet number and sterility
Ripening
Reduced grain filling

27. Rice crop response to variations in temperature
Yield and yield attributes
Climate
Tempera Crop
Grain
Grains Grains Biomass
scenarios ture
duration yield
(m-2)
(ear-1) (kg ha-1)
change (days)
(kg ha-1)
Straw
(kg ha -1)
(% deviation over normal scenario)
Extreme
warm
Greater
warm
Moderate
warm
Slight
warm
Normal
warm
+2.0 0C
-3.3
-8.4
-8.4
-12.4
-7.4
-6.4
+1.5 0C
-2.6
-8.2
-8.2
-8.3
-6.5
-4.7
+1.0 0C
-2.0
-4.9
-4.9
-6.1
-3.6
-2.2
+0.5 0C
-1.3
-3.2
-3.2
-2.4
-1.3
-0.7
Normal
153
6136
18846
494
10220
4943
CERES rice model
Ludhiana, Punjab
Mathauda et al., 2000

28. Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis
and yield of rice crop at different locations
Location
Economic
Days to
Year Duration
yield
anthesis
(kg ha-1)
2000
Tiruvallur
2020
2050
2080
2000
Cuddalore
2020
2050
2080
2000
Dharmapuri 2020
2050
2080
INFOCROP model
Tamilnadu
110
108
107
104
112
111
109
107
113
110
106
103
87
87
86
84
87
86
84
84
92
90
88
87
5236
4956
4634
3925
4921
4765
3256
3198
5518
5342
4861
4197
Decreases of
economic yield
from 2000 (%)
5.3
6.5
15.3
3.2
31.7
1.8
3.2
9.0
13.7
Srivani et al., 2007

29. Effect of climate change on LAI (a) and DMP (b) in rice
Srivani et al., 2007

30. Schematic representation of potential effects of rise in CO2 concentrations and
temperature on rice and its growing environment
Wassmann et al., 2009

31. Predicted yield of rice (kg ha -1) selected locations
for the years 2008, 2030,2050 and 2070
Station
name
% change % change % change
2008 2030 2050 2070 in yield for in yield in yield for
2030
for 2050
2070
Bogra
5714 5119 4070
Dinajpur
6848 4824 4364
Mymensingh 5995 5275 4455
Tangail
5487 5160 3874
Jessore
5571 4432 4583
Satkhira
4700 4364 3603
Barisal
6043 4006 3972
Madaripur
4582 4017 3647
Chandpur
5975 5455 4039
Comilla
6115 5987 4456
Avg. Change in yield
Bangladesh
2036
2692
2739
1938
1997
2066
2091
2186
2772
3075
PRECIS model
-10.8
-29.6
-12.0
-5.95
-20.4
-7.14
-33.7
-12.3
-8.70
-2.09
11
-29.1
-36.3
-25.7
-29.4
-17.7
-23.3
-34.3
-20.4
-32.4
-27.1
21
-64.5
-60.7
-54.3
-64.7
-64.2
-56.0
-65.4
-52.3
-53.6
-49.7
54
Basak et al., 2010

32. Predicted yield of BR3 rice in Barisal and Dhinajpur under different
atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Basak et al., 2010

33. Yield
at
10 C
rise
in
temperature and different
CO2 concentrations
Yield
at
concentration
temperature
340ppm
CO2
and
rise
in
Sanjay et al., 2009

34. Sensitivity of simulated yield of rice to temperature,
CO2 concentration and solar radiation
Max Temp Min Temp CO2 Conc.
(0 C)
(0 C)
(ppm)
0a
+4
-4
+4
-4
0
0
0
+4
+4
-4
-4
-4
a
0
+4
-4
+4
-4
0
0
0
+4
+4
-4
-4
-4
335
335
335
+20
+20
+20
335
335
335
335
335
335
+20
Solar
radiation
(MJ/m2/d)
0
0
0
0
0
0
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
-1
+1
Simulated
yield
(kg/ha)
8391
5517
9842
5604
9853
8439
8590
8179
5717
5369
9877
9433
9583
Yield
change
(%)
100
66
117
67
117
101
102
97
68
64
118
112
114
Growth
duration
(days)
108
99
133
99
132
108
108
108
99
99
132
133
132
standard treatment (120 kg N/ha continuous flooding)
Punjab
Amgain et al., 2006

35. Sensitivity of ET and yield to CO2 changes in the atmosphere as
simulated by CERES-Rice model
Kerala
Saseendran et al., 2000

36. Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between
-6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model
Kerala
Saseendran et al ., 2000

37. Impact climate change on quality
of rice

38. Elevated CO2 influences eating
80
quality of rice
70
Whiteness
60
50
21
40
20.5
Percentage
21.5
30
20
20
19.5
10
19
18.5
Elevated
Ambient
0
1999
2000
18
17.5
1999
2000
Terao et al., 2005

39. Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of
80 rice
70
Protein content
60
50
80
70
30
60
mg/g
Elevated
Ambient
40
50
40
20
10
0
1999
2000
30
20
10
0
1999
2000
Terao et al., 2005

40. Impact of climate change on pest and
diseases
Hymenopteran parasitoids and small predators
Brown plant hopper is 17 times more tolerant to 40 0C
than its predator Cyrtorrhynus lividipennis
Rise in winter temperature may help to continue the
life cycle of pests

41.  High temperature and RH is very much conducive for
rapid proliferation of sheath blight disease
 Bacterial
leaf
streak
proportion in South and
emerged
as
an
alarming
SW parts of country might
be due environmental factor
 Minimum temperature In winter may rise in further
increased severity of sheath blight and stem rot

42. Mitigation Strategies for climate change

43. Adaptive options to deal with the impact of
climate change are

Developing cultivars tolerant of heat and salinity stress and
resistant to flood and drought

Modified crop management practices

Improving water management

Crop diversification

Improving pest management

Better weather forecasts and crop insurance

Harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of farmers

44. Performance of different varieties under the system of rice intensification
method of cultivation during summer 2010
Tamilnadu
Geethalakshmi et al., 2011

45. For flooded condition floating rice is best…

46. Variation in selected parameters of rice plants and
cumulative CH4 efflux from a flooded rice paddy under
the influence of Azolla and urea
Kg CH4 Mg-1
Grain yield
Cumulative
(t ha-1)
CH4 (kg ha-1)
Control (no N)
3.58
94.94
26.52
Urea (60 kg N)
4.58
155.28
33.90
Azolla IC (30 kg N) + Urea (30 kg N)
4.38
149.37
34.10
Azolla dual cropping (30 kg N)+ Urea (30 kg N)
4.33
89.29
20.62
Azolla IC (30 kg N) +dual cropping (30 kg N)
4.24
105.64 b
24.92
Treatment
CRRI, Cuttack
grain yield
Bharathi et al., 2000

47. Organic agriculture principles and practices in mitigating climate change
impacts
Biodiversity
Intercropping, crop rotation
& companion cropping
Mitigate and adapt on
climate change by:
Nitrogen Fixation
Integration
IPM & Animal manure
Sequestrating CO2
Reduce GHG emission
Sustainability
Tillage & cover crop
Pl. nutritn mangt
Natural fertilizers &
rotation
Weed, pest & disease
mangt
Tillage method, natural
pesticides & biocontrol
Indonesia
Promote the healthy use
& proper care of water
and water resources
Interact in a constructive
and life enhancing way
with natural systems and
cycles
Priyanka Prima Dewi, 2009

49.  Reducing methane emission
 Reducing nitrous oxide emission
 Rice residues
 Rice cooking time

50. Future line of work
 In detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects
and interactions of CO2 and temperature on rice
 Development of species specific agronomic management
practices to over come climate impact
 Need greater research, policy and financial support for
climate change

51. Conclusion
 Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat of climate
change.
 Rice yield decreases by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient zones and
0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions.
 Grain yield declined by 10 per cent for each 1 ºC increase in
growing season minimum temperature.
 By adapting mitigation strategies minimize the negative impacts of
climate change and need more time to become effective.