Impact and effect of climate change on agriculture

1. 1
Welcome

2. IMPACT AND EFFECT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
2

3. Sequence of seminar
Introduction
Climate and climate change
Climate change in developed and
developing countries
Factors responsible for climate change
Impact of climate change on agriculture
Effect of climate change on agriculture
Research studies
Conclusion
3

4. INTRODUCTION
4

5. What is climate ???
• Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular
area
• It is measured by assessing the patterns of variation in
temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, precipitation and
other meteorological variables in a given region over long
periods of time
• Climate is different from weather. weather only
describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a
given region
5

6. “A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g.,
using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variability of
its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically
decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.”
-IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change)
“A change that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods”
-UNFCCC ( The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change)
Climate change
6

7. Climate change in developed countries
 Climate change will have less effects
for a few developed countries for
moderate amounts of warming
 Climate Costs of extreme weather alone
could reach 0.5–1 per cent of world
GDP
 2°C rise in global temperatures may
lead to a 20 per cent reduction in water
availability and crop yields in Southern
Europe
7
In USA GDP declines by
1 per cent when global
temperatures exceed by
3°C

8. 8

9. CLIMATE CHANGE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
• Poor and developing countries are
mostly affected by climate change
• In developing countries like India,
climate change is an additional burden
because ecological and socioeconomic
systems are already facing pressures
from rapid population industrialization
and economic development
• Developing countries will be
particularly badly hit for the reasons:
–
9
-Stronger dependence on
agriculture
– Resource scarcity: Fewer
resources associated with
greater vulnerability

10. 10
Source : www.climateeye.com, 2014

11. 11

12. Factors responsible for Climate change
.
.
.
.
.
Greenhouse Gases
Deforestation
Land use change
Energy usage
vehicular usage
Climate change
12

13. Green house gases
• Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and
emit radiation within the thermal infrared range.
• Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture have increased by
approximately 17 per cent since 1990.
• CO2 is the most important anthropogenic GHG as it constitutes about 70
per cent of the total emissions.
• The per-capita emission of an Indian citizen is 1.2 tonnes of Carbon
dioxide where as in US with 20.6 tonnes.
• The green house gases have a drastic effect on temperature , human
health , biodiversity loss etc.
13

14. GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSION
(2013)
25%
15%
10%
7%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
27%
CHINA
AMERICA
EUROPE
INDIA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
BRAZIL
INDONESIA
MEXICO
IRAN
OTHERS
14

15. DEFORESTATION
• National Action Plan
on Climate Change
(NAPCC) estimates
that 68% of the forest
areas in India are
likely to experience
shift in forest types by
the end of the 21st
century, which needs
our immediate
attention
39%
8%
6%
3%
2%
2%
40%
SHARE OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
Brazil
Indonesia
Paraguay
Malaysia
India
DR Congo
others
SOURCE: FAO 2012
15

16. 16

17. Source: IPCC 2013
Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change
(Through Greenhouse Gas emissions)
17

18. Industrial
processes
8%
Wastes
2%
Land use
changes
1%
Agriculture
28%
Energy
61%
Contribution of different sectors in India to climate change
(through greenhouse gas emissions in India)
Fossil fuel used in agriculture considered in energy sector
Source: IPCC 2013
18

19. Rice cultivation
23%
Manure
management
5%
Emission from
soils
12%
Enteric
fermentation
59%
Crop residues
1%
Sectors of agriculture in India contributing to climate change
Source: IPCC 2013 19

20. Impact of climate change on different sectors
20

21. Impact of climate change on agriculture
21

22. • Rise in temperatures likely to affect crops differently from region
to region
• India is a predominantly agriculture-oriented economy, as around
50 per cent of the population directly depends on agriculture
either as farmers or agricultural laborers
• Food production in India is sensitive to climate change like
variations in temperature and monsoon
• It is predicted that a loss of 10 to 40 per cent in production may
occur by 2100 in India due to climate change (NAPCC)
22

23. 23
Mean temperature trend in India ( in oC)
Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

24. 24
Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

25. Effect of climate change on agriculture
Crop
yield
Soil
fertility
Diseases
and insect
pest
Cropping
pattern
25

26. 26
Years
Cropped area
affected
(in lakh ha)
% Change
over
Previous
year
2001 18.72 -
2002 21 10.85
2003 31.98 34.33
2004 32.53 1.69
2005 35.52 8.41
2006 70.87 49.88
2007 85.13 16.75
2008 35.56 -139.39
2009 47.13 24.54
2010 46.25 -1.90
2011 52.01 11.07
2012 50.36 -3.27
Cropped area affected due to climate change in India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Croppedarea affectedby
extremeevents
Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

27. 27
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and rice in
India
• Wheat production Rice yield
Aggarwal et al,2002

28. 28
Effects of Temperature on selected Crops in India
Rao et al, 2008

29. 29
Impact of climate change on other potential
sectors of agriculture
On soil
• Surface runoff
• Acidification
• Water logging
• Biological degradation
On water
• Evaporation loss
• Decline in water quality
• Melting of glacial ice
• Shrinking of water
bodies

30. 30
Impact of climate change on other potential
sectors of agriculture
On livestock
1.Feed Grain & Forage
Quantity & Quality Decrease
Production Cost Increase
2. Animal Heat & Humidity Stress
Reduces growth, reproduction,
production (meat, dairy, eggs)
3. Disease & Pests
Frequency, intensity, distribution is
abundance .
On fisheries
• Increase in temperature affect
breeding, migration and harvests of
fishes.
• Affect the capture, production and
marketing costs of the marine fish.

31. 31

32. Adaptation strategies introduced by IPCC
32

33. Mitigation of climate change
 Improving organic matter management
 Methane emission from ruminants can be reduced
by altering the feed composition
 Efficient management practice to reduce N2O
emission is site-specific nutrient management.
 Mitigating methane emission from rice cultivation.
 Application of plant-derived organics such as neem
oil and neem cake which can also act as nitrification
inhibitors 33

34. How to cut down emissions?
34
The British Petroleum suggests different options to cut down the
emission of CO2 by 110 million tonnes.

35. Research Studies
35

36. 1. Farmers awareness of climate change
and their adaptations
36
Ravindra 2012

37. • Methodology
• Locale of study : Bijapur
• Simple random sampling technique
• Sample size : 150
37

38. Table 1. Awareness of farmers about changes in the precipitation
Sl.
No.
Statements
Farmers response
Aware Not aware
Frequen
cy
Percentage Frequency Percentage
1.
Increase in frost occurrence increases
the scope of pests and diseases
75 50.00 75 50.00
2.
Late onset of rains results in delayed
farm operations and difficult to
manage the crops
56 37.33 94 62.66
3.
Heavy rainfall destroys irrigation
water supply system
24 16.00 126 84.00
4.
Heavy rainfall, drought and frost
situation results in abnormal growth
of crops
24 16.00 126 84.00
5.
Low market price for poor quality of
produce results due to unfavorable
rainfall situation
14 9.33 136 90.66
6.
Now a days there is change in the
rainfall during crop growth period
15 10.00 135 90.0038
n=150

39. Table 1a. Overall awareness of farmers about changes in
precipitation
Categories Frequency Percentage
Low (<9.57) 54 36
Medium (9.57-11.02) 36 24
High (>11.02) 60 40
Mean=10.29 SD=1.71
39
n=150

40. Table 2. Awareness of farmers about changes in temperature
Sl.
No.
Statements Aware Not aware
Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage
1. Now a days there is rise in
both day and night
temperature
64 42.66 86 57.35
2. Rise in temperature results
in large scale migration and
exodus of people and
animals
35 23.33 115 76.67
3. Summer/winter is getting
warmer
43 28.66 107 71.34
4. High temperature and
relative humidity results in
poor quality of the produce
35 23.33 115 76.67
40
n=150

41. Table 3. Distribution of farmers according to changes in
temperature
Sl.
No.
Categories Frequency Percentage
1. Low awareness (<5.99) 49 32.66
2. Medium awareness (5.99-7.14) 14 9.33
3. High awareness (>7.14) 87 58.00
4. Mean=6.57 SD= 1.35
41
n=150

42. Table 4. Awareness of farmers about impact of climate change
in agriculture
Sl.
No.
Awareness statements on impact
of climate change
Aware Not aware
Frequenc
y
Percentage Frequency Percentage
1. Stronger wind and heavy rainfall
increases soil erosion
65 43.33 85 56.67
2. As a result of climate change,
there increase in operational cost
due to increased expenditure on
inputs
46 30.66 104 69.34
3. Strong wind and storms result in
heavy lodging and uprooting of
crops
46 30.66 104 69.34
4. High rainfall and relative humidity
results in increased insect
problems
25 16.66 125 83.34
5. Income from agriculture is
adversely affected due to climate
change
21 14.00 129 86.00
42
n=150

43. Table 5. Overall impact of climate change on agriculture
Awareness category Frequency Percentage
Low (<7.17) 53 35.33
Medium (7.17-9.26) 24 16.00
High (>9.26) 73 48.66
Mean=8.21 SD=2.46
43
n=150

44. 2. Perspectives of farmers on effect of climate
change on agriculture and livestock
44
Gajendra 2011

45. Methodology
• Locale of study : Bijapur
• Simple random sampling technique
• Sample size is 150
45

46. Table 1. Distribution of the respondents according to their perceived
effects of climate change on agriculture in the last 2 decades
Sl. No. Farming
practices
Effect of climate change Percent
variation
Negative f (%) No effect f
(%)
1. Soil fertility 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 21.90
2. Crops grown 145 (96.67) 05 (03.33) 39.68
3. Cropping
pattern
138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 32.00
4. Variety
selection
80 (53.33) 70 (46.67) 90.00
5. Land
preparation
135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 46.34
6. Sowing time 128 (85.33) 22 (14.67) 30.50
46
(n=150)

47. Contd…
Sl. No. Farming
practices
Effect of climate change Percent
variation
Negative f (%) No effect f (%)
8. Seed rate 02 (01.33) 148 (98.67) ---
9. Seed treatment 28 (18.67) 122 (81.33) ---
10. FYM application 22 (14.67) 128 (85.33) ---
11. Use of chemical
fertilizer
135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 22.98
12. Time of
application of
chemical fertilizers
150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 30.42
13. Intercultural
operations
150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 31.42
14. Intensity of weeds 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 48.05
15. Insect, pest
infestation
138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 21.00
16. Disease infestation 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 09.50
17. Pesticide use 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 09.50 47

48. Contd…
Sl. No. Farming
practices
Effect of climate change Percent
variation
Negative f (%) No effect f (%)
19. Harvesting 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 24.73
20. Grain yield quantity 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 30.35
21. Grain yield quality 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 29.13
22. Straw yield obtained 132 (88.00) 18 (12.00) 26.00
23. Storage duration 100 (66.67) 50 (33.33) ---
24. Market price 70 (46.67) 80 (53.33) 35.28
25. Overall health of the
crop
150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 35.25
26. Shelf life of crop 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 15.33
27. Storage pests and
diseases
105 (70.00) 45 (30.00) ---
28. Taste of the produce 117 (78.00) 33 (22.00) 23.33
48

49. Table 2. Distribution of the respondents according to their
perceived effects of climate change on livestock in the last 2 decades
Subject Effect of climate change
Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation
Type of livestock
reared
00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 47.10
Number of livestock
reared
00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 45.12
Purpose of rearing
livestock (milk,
FYM, both, meat)
00 (00.00) 134 (89.33) 16 (10.67) 14.26
Number of diseases
to the livestock
00 (00.00) 75 (50.00) 75 (50.00) 25.62
Extent of milk yield 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 14.95
Strength of bullocks 00 (00.00) 98 (65.33) 52 (34.67) 23.11
Method of rearing
livestock
00 (00.00) 120 (80.00) 30 (20.00) 39.00
Price of the milk 144 (96.00) 00 06 (04.00) 71.14
49
(n=150)

50. Contd…
Subject Effect of climate change
Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation
Cost of rearing 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 72.95
Cost of feeds 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 73.00
Fodder availability
from common lands
00 (00.00) 116 (77.33) 34 (22.67) 25.71
Fodder utilization
from common lands
00 (00.00) 117 (78.00) 33 (22.00) 26.06
Quality of fodder
from common lands
00 (00.00) 76 (50.67) 74 (49.33) ---
Availability of green
fodder
00 (00.00) 108 (72.00) 42 (28.00) 25.90
Utilization of green
fodder
00 (00.00) 111 (74.00) 39 (26.00) 27.73
50

51. Contd…
Subject Effect of climate change
Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation
Availability of dry
fodder
00 (00.00) 138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 32.55
Utilization of dry
fodder
00 (00.00) 129 (86.00) 21 (14.00) 34.04
Quality of dry
fodder
00 (00.00) 125 (83.33) 25 (16.67) 32.75
Availability of
concentrate feeds
00 (00.00) 141 (94.00) 09 (06.00) 21.30
Utilization of
concentrate feeds
00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (06.67) 23.05
Quality of
concentrate feeds
00 (00.00) 129 (86.00) 21 (14.00) 24.05
Hours of stall
feeding
00 (00.00) 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 22.32
Hours of grazing 00 (00.00) 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 42.00
51

52. 52
3 .Impact of climate change on rain fed agriculture in
India : A case study of Dharwad
Asha latha et al.2012

53. 53
Methodology :
• Locale of study : Dharwad
• Multi stage random sampling design used .
• Sample size is 250.

54. 54
Table 1.Growth and instability in the yields of major
rainfed crops
Crop Compound Growth
rate (per cent)
Instability Index
Sorghum -17.47 0.83
Maize -6.00 0.56
Tur -8.44 0.58
Groundnut -13.06 0.61
Wheat -16.00 0.70
Onion -3.93 0.53
Cotton -10.65 0.79

55. 55
Table2.Effect of drought on rain fed crop yield in
Dharwad District
Crop Percent of loss of normal yield (kg /ha)
Sorghum 43.03
Maize 14.09
Tur 28.23
Groundnut 34.09
Wheat 48.68
Onion 29.56
Cotton 59.96

56. 56
Table 3. Major coping mechanism adopted by rain fed farmers to
mitigate the impact of climate change
Coping mechanism Small
farmers
Medium
farmers
Large
farmers
Total
farmers(%)
Technological mitigation
Change in cropping pattern 60.00 40.00 26.67 42.22
Mixed /inter cropping 93.33 76.67 56.67 75.56
Cultivating tree crops 0.00 10.00 76.67 28.89
Soil organic matter enhancement 46.67 46.67 16.67 36.67
Drought resistant 13.33 43.33 20.00 25.56
Integrated /mixed farming system 93.33 76.67 43.33 71.11
Socio-economic factors
Reduced consumption expenditure 60.00 50.00 0.00 36.67
Shifting to other profession 80.00 50.00 20.00 50.00
Borrowing 86.67 50.00 10.00 48.89
Crop insurance 6.67 16.67 10.00 11.11
Selling of land and livestock 26.67 6.67 3.33 12.22
No response 6.67 23.33 23.33 17.78
(n=250)

57. 57
4.Farmers’ Response and Adaptation Strategies to Climate
Change in Mafeteng District, Lesotho
Sekaleli and Sebusi (2013)

58. 58
Methodology :
• Locale of study : Mafeteng district, Lesotho
• Stratified sampling method .
• Sample size is 120.

59. 59
Fig1. Impacts of Climate Change as Reported by
Farmers in Kolo and Ts’akholo
23%
40%
17%
16%
4%
Poor crop quality

60. 60
Fig 2. Emerging practices and adaptation strategies at
Kolo and Ts’akholo

61. 61
Keyhole garden and trench garden

62. CONCLUSION
62