Pinebridge 2020 Q3

1. June
2020
2020 3

2. I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI MSCI
300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
ESG MSCI ( )
(NEXGEM) - - -
- - -
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
-21.4
-39.2
-18.5
-16.5
-24.9
-11.3
-21.3
-8.8
-24.4
-5.6
-9.2
-15.7
-9.9
-2.1
-5.8
-15.3
-26.4
-12.1
-7.5
-8.6
-4.3
-6.1
2.0
-16.1
-1.9
3.5
-6.7
-0.6
-0.2
3.05
3 % %
-5.3
2.0
0.2
-7.3
-6.7
-0.2
-3.0
-14.4
-5.9
-7.7
-4.7
-6.8
1.4
5.5
1.5
8.6
-6.0
-0.9
-2.1
-2.8
-6.9
-2.6
-4.4
-14.4
-6.4
-6.1
-3.4
-5.2
-1.5
1.6
-1.2
3.3
-
-
ESG
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
-20.1
-11.5
-5.6
-24.7
-2.4
-0.2
-11.4
-5.0
-6.9
0.8
-1.0
2.0
-10.8
-4.6
-3.9
-16.2
-2.0
0.9
-6.1
2.5
-3.7
0.3
0.7
0.2
3 % %
-12.9
14.0
-46.5
-41.9
-28.8
-4.6
9.1
-30.1
-20.7
-17.1
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. II.

7. PAGE 6
•
•
• 2020
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
GDP( ) 0.2% (2020/3)
40
45
50
55
60
65
2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11
PMI 41.5 (2020/4) PMI 41.8 (2020/4)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CPI 0.3% (2020/4) CPI 1.4% (2020/4)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
14.7% (2020/4)

8. PAGE 7
• 0%~0.25%
• QE ETF
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
( 0.25%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
( ) 0.25% (2020/5/29)

9. PAGE 8
•
•
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
GDP( ) -3.2% (2020/3)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11 2020/5
PMI 39.5 (2020/5) PMI 28.7 (2020/5)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
CPI 0.1% (2020/5) CPI 0.9% (2020/5)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
7.4% (2020/3)

10. PAGE 9
• QE (PEPP) 1.35
2021 6 -0.75%
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
( 0.1%)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0.0% (2020/5/29)
-0.5% (2020/5/29)

11. PAGE 10
• 10 GDP
324 GDP 40%
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GDP( ) -2.0% (2020/3)
20
30
40
50
60
2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12
PMI 38.4 (2020/5) PMI 25.3 (2020/5)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
CPI 0.1% (2020/4) CPI -0.1% (2020/4)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2.6% (2020/4)

12. PAGE 11
• QE ETF
75 3
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
( 0.1%)
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.1% (2020/5/29)

13. PAGE 12
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
GDP( ) -3.4% (2020/3)
30
35
40
45
50
55
2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11
PMI 42.7 (2020/4) PMI 31.5 (2020/4)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
CPI 4.5% (2020/3)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.0% (2019/12)

14. PAGE 13
- Bank of America WSJ 2020/05 - IMF World Economic Outlook 2020/04
? V U W ?
2.9%
-3%
5.8% 202120202019
2.3%
-5.9%
4.7%
1.2%
-7.5%
202120202019
4.7%
3.7%
-1%
6.6%
20212019 2020
V : 10%
194 ….
IMF .…
U or W : 75%
6 – 12 12 - 24
202120202019

15. III.

16. PAGE 15
•
( :
)
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 0.653% (2020/5/29)
2 0.160% (2020/5/29)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 -0.447% (2020/5/29)
2 -0.659% (2020/5/29)

17. PAGE 16
• ETF
(fallen angel)
• 3
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
Bank of America 2020/05
70bp
120bp
170bp
220bp
270bp
320bp
370bp
420bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
174bp (2020/5/29)
5
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.40% (2020/5/29)
5

18. PAGE 17
• ETF
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
Bank of America 2020/04/30
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
1000bp
1100bp
1200bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
637bp (2020/5/29)
5
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7.02% (2020/5/29)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(12 ) : 5.06% (2020/04)
(Notes) 2020 : 8% - 10%

19. PAGE 18
•
IMF
• 5
Bloomberg 2020/5/28 (EMBI) (NEXGEM)
Bloomberg 2020/4/30 2020
127
104
123
88
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2017 2018 2019 2020F
( 10 )
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
6.01% (2020/5/28)
5
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
1000bp
1100bp
1200bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
534bp (2020/5/28)
5
859bp (2020/5/28)
5

20. PAGE 19
•
• ( : PEMEX
8 )
Bloomberg 2020/5/28 (CEMBI)
J.P. Morgan 2020/04/30
150bp
250bp
350bp
450bp
550bp
650bp
750bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
474bp (2020/5/28) 5
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5.34% (2020/5/28) 5
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
(12 ) : 1.48% (2020/04)
(Notes) 2020 : 4.8%

21. PAGE 20
•
• 5
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
Bank of America 2020/4/30
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
(12 ) : 1.97% (2020/04)
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8.93% (2020/5/29) 5
150 bp
350 bp
550 bp
750 bp
950 bp
1150 bp
1350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
855bp (2020/5/29) 5
(Notes) 2020 : 4%

22. IV.

23. PAGE 22
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12
BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Bloomberg 2020/5/19
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
500 21.6 (2020/5/29) 5
(%)

24. PAGE 23
• ( )
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12
BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Bloomberg 2020/5/22
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
600 17.4 (2020/5/29)
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5
GDP( % )
PMI_ ( )
PMI_ ( )

25. PAGE 24
• 2020
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12
BofA Global Research Bloomberg 2020/5/30
12
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
300 11.5 (2020/5/29) 5

26. PAGE 25
• 20
GDP 1%
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12
Bank of America 2020/5/22
( )
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MSCI 17.6 (2020/5/29) 5
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5
( )

27. PAGE 26
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BOVESPA 15.8 (2020/5/29)
5
Selic
( )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5

28. PAGE 27
•
Bloomberg 2020/5/29 ICE
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 416bp (2020/5/29) 5
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.97% (2020/5/29)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

29. V.

30. PAGE 29
ETF
2020/6
3

31. PAGE 30
2020/6
3

32. 3

33. PAGE 32
Bloomberg 2020/5/29
2020 7
• 7/16 ECB
• 7/22 BOJ
• 7/29 FOMC
2020 8
• 8/13 ECB
• 8/17 – 8/20
• 8/24 – 8/27
2020 9
• 9/10 ECB
• 9/15 – 9/30 UN
• 9/16 FOMC
• 9/17 BOJ
• 9/29
• G7

35. PAGE 34
IMF 2020/6/3
IMF
66 $236
1
27.7
8.9
4.1
1.5
10
7.4
34
4.4
4.9
6.5
6.4
3.9
2.2
5.2
2.7
13.9
7.3
26 $2.3

36. PAGE 35
* 5 29 Bloomberg 2015/5/29 -
2020/5/29 / / /
/ (NEXGEM) / / -
3/23
bps 373
bps
5 bps 126
174
42%
637
1100
450
41%
699
477
1192
318
465
652 722
515
356
1130 1067
855
862
491 493
53%*
29% 29%
24%
19%

37. PAGE 36
2020/6
TR109154
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