Εσπερίδα Περιβαλλοντικής Εκπαίδευσης Δ.Δ.Ε. Β΄ Αθήνας - Presentation xepapadeas observ_june_2016

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
The Economics of Climate Change
Anastasios Xepapadeas
Athens University of Economics and Business and Beijer Fellow
Athens, June 2016
A. Xepapadeas (AUEB) Climate Change Athens, June 2016 1 / 84

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
What is Climate Change? Evidence and Mechanisms
Earth’s average temperature has risen by 1.4 F over the
past century, and is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5 F
over the next hundred years. Small changes in the average
temperature of the planet can translate to large and
potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
People, through their consumption and production
decisions, emit greenhouse gasses (GHGs). Carbon dioxide
is especially important, accounting for around
three-quarters of the human-generated global warming
e¤ect; other relevant GHGs include methane, nitrous
oxide, and hydro‡uorocarbons (HFCs).

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
People, through their consumption and production
decisions, emit greenhouse gasses (GHGs). Carbon dioxide
is especially important, accounting for around
three-quarters of the human-generated global warming
e¤ect; other relevant GHGs include methane, nitrous
oxide, and hydro‡uorocarbons (HFCs).
These ‡ows accumulate into stocks of GHGs in the
atmosphere. It is overall stocks of GHGs that matter, and
not their place of origin. The rate at which stock
accumulation occurs depends on the "carbon cycle,"
including the earth’s absorptive capabilities and other
feedback e¤ects.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
The stock of GHGs in the atmosphere traps heat and
results in global warming: how much depends on "climate
sensitivity. The process of global warming results in
climate change.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
climate change.
Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in
more ‡oods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more
frequent and severe heat waves. The planet’s oceans and
glaciers have also experienced some big changes - oceans
are warming and becoming more acidic, ice caps are
melting, and sea levels are rising.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
climate change.
Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in
more ‡oods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more
frequent and severe heat waves. The planet’s oceans and
glaciers have also experienced some big changes - oceans
are warming and becoming more acidic, ice caps are
melting, and sea levels are rising.
Climate change a¤ects people, species, and plants in a
variety of complex ways, most notably via water in some
shape or form: storms, ‡oods, droughts, sea-level rise.
These changes will potentially transform the physical and
human geography of the planet, a¤ecting where and how
we live our lives. Each of these …ve links involves
considerable uncertainty.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Source: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations Damages
Under business as usual (BAU), over the next two
centuries we are likely to see change at a rate that is
fast-forward in historical time and on a scale that the
world has not seen for tens of millions of years.
The science clearly shows that the probability and
frequency of ‡oods, storms, droughts, and so on, is likely
to continue to grow with cumulative emissions, and that
the magnitude of some of these impacts could be
catastrophic.
The task of economists is to take the science, particularly
its analysis of risks, and think about its implications for
policy. Only by taking the extraordinary position that the
scienti…c evidence shows that the risks are de…nitely
negligible should economists advocate doing nothing now.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations Climate Change: A global externality
Externalities
Environmental and resource economics have long been
associated with the concepts of externalities and market
failure. An externality is present when the well-being
(utility) of an individual or the production possibilities of a
…rm are directly a¤ected by the actions of another agent
in the economy.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Externalities
in the economy.
When externalities are present the competitive equilibrium
is not Pareto optimal. A market failure takes place

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Externalities
in the economy.
When externalities are present the competitive equilibrium
is not Pareto optimal. A market failure takes place
Climate change represents the greatest and
widest-ranging market failure ever seen. Climate
change is considered as the mother of all externalities

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations Characteristics of the Climate Change Externality
1 It is global in its origins and impacts;

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
2 Reducing emissions is an extreme “global public good,”
meaning that no single nation can capture for itself a
substantial part of the bene…ts from its own emission
reductions (free riding incentives)

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
3 Some of the e¤ects are very long term and governed by a
‡ow-stock process with positive non-near feedbacks;

Climate
Change
A.
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What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
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IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
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Environmental,
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Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
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References
4 There is a great deal of uncertainty in most steps of the
scienti…c chain; and

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
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IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
4 There is a great deal of uncertainty in most steps of the
scienti…c chain; and
5 The e¤ects are potentially very large and many may be
irreversible

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations The role of economic analysis
1 Deal with risk and uncertainty (deep structural
uncertainty);

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
uncertainty);
2 Understand links between economics and ethics (trade-o¤s
and distribution both within and between generations), as
well as notions of distribution across nations (responsibility
of rich vs poor countries)

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
uncertainty);
3 International economic policy and cooperation to
formulate policies.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
uncertainty);
3 International economic policy and cooperation to
formulate policies.
4 Policy formulation is impeded by free riding and
distributional issues

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations International Climate Change Policy
The agreed framework for all international climate-change
deliberations is the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change, rati…ed in 1994. That document
stated, “The ultimate objective is to achieve stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”.
The Framework Convention was implemented in the Kyoto
Protocol in 1997. The Kyoto Protocol currently covers
only 27% of global emissions. The Kyoto Protocol sets
emissions targets for developed countries which are
binding under international law.
The Kyoto Protocol has had two commitment periods, the
…rst of which lasts from 2005-2012, and the second
2012-2020. The US has not rati…ed the Kyoto Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol has been rati…ed by all the other
Annex I Parties.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
The 2009 “Copenhagen Accord adopts a target of limiting
the increase in global mean temperature, “recognizing the
scienti…c view that the increase should be below 2 degrees
Celsius.”
The Cancun agreements adopted by the Convention of
parties (COP) in 2010 states that global warming should
be limited to below 2.0 C (3.6 F) relative to the
pre-industrial level. This target may be strengthened "on
the basis of the best available scienti…c knowledge,
including in relation to a global average temperature rise
of 1.5 C"
In 2011, parties adopted the "Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action and agreed to "develop a protocol,
another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal
force under the Convention applicable to all Parties

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
At Durban 2011 and Doha 2012 parties noted "with grave
concern" that current e¤orts to hold global warming to
below 2 or 1.5 C relative to the pre-industrial level appear
inadequate.
The Doha Amendment (2012) is a proposal in which 37
countries have binding targets: Australia, the European
Union (and its 28 member states), Belarus, Iceland,
Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, and
Ukraine.
Negotiations were held in Paris in 2014 to agree on a
post-Kyoto legal framework that would obligate all major
polluters to pay for CO2 emissions. China, India, and the
United States have all signaled that they will not ratify
any treaty that will commit them legally to reduce CO2
emissions.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations Paris, December 2015
The highlights of the Paris Agreement are:
To hold the increase in the global average temperature to
well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. This is a more
ambitious objective than in previous international
agreements on climate change. Furthermore, in a
concession to small island states and other highly
vulnerable states, the text also includes an aspiration to
limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C.
To aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas
emissions as soon as possible, while recognising that
peaking will take longer for developing countries. While no
target year has been set for this emissions peak, there is a
long-term commitment to "achieve a balance between
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks
of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century".
This e¤ectively translates into a goal of net zero emissions
to be achieved at some point beyond 2050.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Economic Considerations Paris, December 2015
To put in place an ongoing framework that will encourage
countries to communicate and update their climate policy
targets, in the form of intended nationally determined
contributions (INDCs), on a regular …ve-yearly basis. The
agreement establishes a framework of …ve-yearly
"stocktakes" of progress made on climate policies from
2018, and these in turn will form the basis of submissions
to be made by countries to strengthen their commitments
to reduce emissions. These periodic national commitments
are to be submitted every …ve years from 2020. The
agreement therefore sets in motion a framework for an
ongoing review of strategies to strengthen emissions
reduction commitments over time.
To guarantee continued and enhanced climate …nance
from the developed world to assist developing countries to
adopt a lower emissions pathway and build climate
resilience into their economies. A target of US$100bn is to
be provided annually by 2020.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Stabilization Stock stabilization and policy instruments
The increase in global temperature relates to the stock of
greenhouse gasses (GHGs), thus the achievement of
temperature targets requires stabilization of stocks.
Two type of instruments to regulate externalities:
Quantity instruments: Emission reductions (mitigation) by
quantity restrictions so that the target is attained.
Quantity instruments could lead to the creation of markets
for emission permits with the overall quantity constraint is
satis…ed. Emissions trading or cap and trade (e.g. The
European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), or
Scheme, was the …rst large greenhouse gas emissions
trading scheme in the world, and remains the biggest.
Price instruments: Reduce emission by pricing carbon
according to the marginal damages induced by GHGs.
(e.g. Carbon tax)
Price instruments are sensitive to ethical and structural
assumptions on the future and the risk of major losses due
to irreversibilities.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Stabilization Cost of Stabilization
According to the Stern Review (Stern 2007) Starting at
430ppm C02e, stabilizing at 550ppm C02e or below would likely
cost around 1 percent of world GDP per annum with good
policy and timely decision making ; for stabilization at 450ppm
C02e, it might cost 3 or 4 times as much (possibly more).

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Stabilization Cost of Stabilization
Policies
EU 20, 20, 20 low carbon
economy
20% reduction in EU
GHG emissions from 1990
levels;
Raising the share of EU
energy consumption
produced from renewable
resources to 20%;
20% improvement in the
EU’s energy e¢ ciency.
Particular measures
National targets for
non-EU ETS emissions
Carbon capture and
storage

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Stabilization The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
The marginal social cost of carbon (SCC) re‡ects the future
damage of an incremental emission.
It is important for policy, because it gives us an understanding
of where carbon prices (or GHG prices more generally) should
be. This will help deciding about the optimal level of reduction
of GHGs emissions.
The SCC at time t is de…ned by:
The marginal social utility of consumption at t
(embodying ethical values and a particular path)
The impact on consumption at t of all relevant preceding
temperature changes (and resultant climate change)
The impact on a relevant temperature increase of increases
in preceding carbon stocks
The impact on all relevant stocks of an increase in carbon
emissions at t, where “impact” in the above is to be
interpreted as a partial derivative.

Climate
Change
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Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
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IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
However, the SCC is very slippery numerically since it is so
sensitive to assumptions about model structure, including
future emission
paths, carbon cycles, climate sensitivity, future technologies,
and ethical approaches to valuation over the centuries to come.
SCCt =
∞
∑
k=2
1
(1 + ρ)t+k
u0
(ct+k )
∂ct+k
∂Tt+k
k 1
∑
t=1
∂Tt+k
∂St+k
∂St+k
∂Et
!
(1)
u (c) : utility of consumption c; T global average temperature;
S stock of GHGs, E emissions of GHGs, ρ utility discount rate.

Climate
Change
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What is
Climate
Change?
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Considerations
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Modeling and
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IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Given this sensitivity, it is remarkable how carelessly the
SCC is often quoted— it is quite common, for example, for
people to quote an SCC without even referring to a
reference emissions path
Thus, the SCC is a very weak foundation for policy. The
target emission reduction approach and the
calculation of the associated MAC is more attractive
from the point of view both of policy toward risk and of
clarity of conclusions.
It is also important, however, to check prices derived from
the MAC against SCC calculations and to keep policy
under revision, as further information and discovery arrives.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs
The understanding of the links and interactions between
the economy and the forces shaping climate change so
that policy design regarding stabilization should be
disciplined by science. This requires formal modeling.

Climate
Change
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What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
This task is performed by aggregate models which couple
climate and the economy. These models have been
popular in the economics of climate change. They attempt
to integrate the science of climate change, as expressed,
for example, via General Circulation Models (GCMs), with
economic modelling based on models of economic growth.
These models called integrated assessment models, or
IAMs.

Climate
Change
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Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
IAMs.
The IAMs contain an Economic module and a Climate
module. The two modules are coupled and they contain
decision variables such as emissions, or abatement.

Climate
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What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
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IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
IAMs.
The IAMs contain an Economic module and a Climate
module. The two modules are coupled and they contain
decision variables such as emissions, or abatement.
Choosing these decision variables in some desirable way
will provide policy rules.

Climate
Change
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Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs Structure

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs Structure
Figure: The coupled climate economy system

Climate
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Climate
Change?
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Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
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References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs The RICE-2010 Model (Nordhaus PNAS)
Name Type Reference
DICE-99 Aggregated Optimal Growth Nordhaus
RICE-2010 Aggregated Optimal Growth Nordhaus
FUND Aggregated Optimal Growth Tol
WITCH Aggregated Optimal Growth FEEM, Bosseti et al.
IMAGE Dynamic process simulation Bowman et al.
MERGE Aggregated Optimal Growth Manne and Richels
PAGE Aggregated Simulation Hope

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References
The RICE model modi…es the Ramsey growth model to
include climate investments. The capital stock of the
conventional model is extended to include investments in
the environment (“natural capital”). It views
concentrations of GHGs as “negative natural capital” and
emissions reductions as lowering the quantity of that
negative capital.
Emissions reductions lower consumption today but, by
preventing economically harmful climate change, increase
consumption possibilities in the future.
The model divides the world into 12 regions. Each region
is assumed to have a well-de…ned set of preferences,
represented by a social welfare function, and to optimize
its consumption, GHG policies, and investment over time.
The social welfare function is increasing in the per capita
consumption of each generation, with diminishing marginal
utility of consumption.

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The relative importance of di¤erent generations is
measured using a pure rate of time preference, and the
curvature of the utility function is given by the elasticity of
the marginal utility of consumption.
These parameters are calibrated to ensure that the real
interest rate in the model is close to the average real
interest rate and the average real return on capital in
real-world markets (7, 8).
The model contains both a traditional economic sector like
that found in many economic models and geophysical
relationships designed for climate-change modeling.

Climate
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Climate
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IAMs
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Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs RICE-2010 Output
Policy Scenarios
Baseline: No climate-change policies are adopted.
Optimal: Climate-change policies maximize economic
welfare, with full participation by all nations starting in
2010 and without climatic constraints.
Temperature-limited: The optimal policies are undertaken
subject to a further constraint that global temperature
does exceed 2 C above the 1900 average.
Copenhagen Accord: High-income countries implement
deep emissions reductions similar to those included in the
current US proposals, with developing countries following
in the next 2 to 5 decades.
Copenhagen Accord with only rich countries: High-income
countries implement deep reductions as in scenario 4, but
developing countries do not participate until the 22nd
century.

Climate
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Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs The Policy Ramp

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Modeling and Policy Design: IAMs Costs and Bene…ts

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Strategic behavior
Non cooperative behavior by the countries. Each country
chooses abatement to maximize own welfare and not
global welfare
A noncooperative Nash equilibrium leads to carbon prices
and emissions reductions that are much lower than optimal
Intergenerational tradeo¤. Climate-change policies require
costly abatement in the near term to reduce damages in
the distant future. The delayed payo¤s reinforce the
incentives of the noncooperative equilibrium, so the
temptation is high to postpone taking the costly steps to
reduce emissions.

Climate
Change
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Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
Policy Design:
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Strategic behavior
International cooperation is di¢ cult because of:
Free riding incentives and global externality. Stabilization
is costly, so there is incentive to avoid stabilization and
free ride on the global climate bene…ts generated by
stabilization undertaken by others.
Prisoners dilemma: The size of the stable coalition of
cooperating countries is small
Spatial asymmetry between winners and losers among
countries. This asymmetry reinforces the tendency of
countries to move to their noncooperative equilibrium.
Kyoto and Copenhagen regimes have adopted a
cap-and-trade structure. These have the theoretical
advantage that they can coordinate emissions reductions
across countries in an e¢ cient manner. However, these
theoretical advantages have proved illusory to date.
Economists often point to harmonized carbon taxes as a
more e¢ cient and attractive regime. But this does not
seem politically feasible

Climate
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Climate
Change?
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Discounting for the future
A high discount rate gives less weights to the welfare of
future generations relative to the present. If bene…ts
accrue in the future a high discount rate reduces them a
lot relative to costs. The opposite holds for a low discount
rate.
This is an ethical issue
Ramsey equation
SDR = ρ + ηg (2)
u (c) =
c1 η
1 η
, g =
˙c
c
, u (c) e ρt
(3)
SDR: social discount rate, ρ : pure time preference rate, η
elasticity of marginal utility (intertemporal distribution,
attitudes towards risk), rate of growth of consumption.

Climate
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Stern (AER 2008): η 1, 2; ρ very low (e.g. 0.1%) ,
g 1.5% 2.5% then SDR 1.5%-5% Stern review
(η = 1) adopts the low bound of this range
Nordhaus (DICE 2007) ρ = 1.5%, η = 2, SDR 5.5%
Social discount rates should be declining - not constant
over time - for projects related to climate change under
uncertainty regarding the future rate of return on capital
and the consumption rate of growth (Weitzman, Gollier)
SDR = ρ + ηµg 0.5η2
σ2
g (4)
consumption at time t, is independently and identically
normally distributed with mean µg and variance σ2
g . The
term 0.5η2σ2
g is the precautionary e¤ect that reduces the
SDR.

Climate
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Climate
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Environmental,
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Change in
Greece
References
Gollier (2008) proves that if shocks to consumption are
positively correlated and u(c) exhibits CRRA
c1 η/(1 η), SDRt will decline with time. The intuition
behind this is that positive shocks to consumption make
future consumption riskier, increasing the strength of the
precautionary e¤ect in equation (4) as t increases.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
Policy Design:
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Uncertainty
High structural uncertainty over the physics of
environmental phenomena and climate change which
makes the assignment of precise probabilistic model
structure untenable
High sensitivity of model outputs to controversial
modeling assumptions (for instance,the functional form of
the chosen damage function and the value of the social
discount rate).
High uncertainty of economic impacts (Pindyck’s critique
of IAMs). Concentrate on the distribution of T. If we do
little or nothing to abate GHG emissions, how much might
the temperature increase by 2100?
As a result, separate models may arrive at dramatically
di¤erent policy recommendations, generating signi…cant
uncertainty over the magnitude and timing of desirable
policy.

Climate
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References
This implies, consistent with IPCC (2007), a 3% loss of GDP in
2100 if T reaches 4 C.(Pindyck)

Climate
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Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Structural uncertainty
Economics of low probability, high-impact catastrophes
related to climate change. Uncertain structural parameters
induce a critical “tail fattening”
of posterior-predictive distributions. This requires the
adoption of stringent policies now than latter in the future
(Weitzman 2009)
Ambiguity, multiple priors and robust control in climate
change. A precautionary principle (Athanassoglou
Xepapadeas 2012)
The least favorable prior (LFP) is the one that corresponds
to the least favorable outcome (the worst-case scenario).
Climate sensitivity (Meinshausen et al. Nature 2009)

Climate
Change
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What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
Policy Design:
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues The time pro…le of the policy ramp
Much of the current scienti…c discussion about climate
change concentrates around the stringency of policy action
(mitigation) and its time pro…le.
Nordhaus (2007, 2010, 2011) to increase mitigation e¤orts
(e.g. carbon taxes) gradually
Stern (2006) justi…es the call for immediate action on the
normative grounds of using a low discount rate to discount
the future costs of climate change. Weitzman (2009a)
argues that the possibility of low probability climate
catastrophes strengthens the case for quick action now to
mitigate potential catastrophic climate change.
Brock, Engstom Xepapadeas (2014) introduce spatial
transport of heat from the equator to the poles and
positive nonlinear feedbacks related to damage reservoirs,
such as an endogenously driven polar ice cap and carbon
stored in permafrost soil. Damage reservoirs call for quick
action now.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues The time pro…le of the policy ramp

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Key policies that can a¤ect climate change
1 Mitigation: Reduction in the ‡ow of emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs). (Emission trading, Harmonized
carbon taxes)
2 Technology cooperation (low carbon technologies)
3 Action to reduce deforestation
4 Adaptation: Cope with the detrimental impacts of
climate change which cannot be avoided. Defensive
investment, The poorest countries are more vulnerable to
climate change
5 Geoengineering: Methods that prevent GHGs from
entering the atmosphere through CCS or methods of solar
radiation management (SRM) that either block incoming
solar radiation or increase the planet’s albedo.

Climate
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Concluding
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
SRM, which is also referred to as geoengineering,
includes methods that either block incoming solar
radiation, or equivalently increase the planet’s albedo, that
is the capacity of the planet to re‡ect incoming solar
radiation
SRM methods should be di¤erentiated from actions that
mitigate (reduce or prevent) anthropogenic GHG emissions
such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Climate
Change
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Xepapadeas
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Climate
Change?
Economic
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Concluding
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
SRM methods work by injecting sulfate aerosols into the
atmosphere. They are expected to act rapidly once
deployed at the appropriate scale, and could potentially
reduce surface global temperatures within a few months or
years if this were considered desirable.
This approach mimics what occasionally occurs in nature
when a powerful volcano erupts.
The Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 injected huge
volumes of sulphur into the stratosphere. The particles
produced in subsequent reactions cooled the planet by
about 0.5 C over the next two years by re‡ecting sunlight
back into space.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Mimicking the volcano

Climate
Change
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Climate
Change?
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues Geoengineering advantages
Advantages
It is a quick emergency measure because it directly
a¤ects global temperature by mimicking the impact of a
large volcano.
SRM methods can be used to “buy time”by slowing down
the increase in temperature so that new abatement or
emission reducing technologies can be developed.
It is cheap relative to the cost of large scale mitigation as
current studies indicate.
Geoengineering reduces temperature by blocking incoming
solar radiation.
Mitigation reduces global temperature by reducing the
stock of GHGs, thus allowing larger amounts of outgoing
solar radiation.

Climate
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Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues SRM disadvantages
Disadvantages
Negative e¤ects on plants due to reduced sunlight
Ozone depletion
More acid depositions
Less solar radiation available for solar power systems
Inability of engineering methods to adjust regional climate
at desired levels
Intensi…ed ocean acidi…cation
We do not really know the consequences of SRM

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Open Issues SRM disadvantages

Climate
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Change?
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Concluding
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Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Concluding Remarks
Climate change could have very serious impacts on growth
and development.
The costs of stabilizing the climate are signi…cant but
manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more
costly.
Action on climate change is required across all countries,
and it need not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or
poor countries.
A range of options exists to cut emissions; strong,
deliberate policy action is required to motivate their
take-up.
Climate change demands an international response, based
on a shared understanding of long-term goals and
agreement on frameworks for action.
(From the Stern Review)

Climate
Change
A.
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What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Environmental, Economic, and Social Impacts of Climate Change in
Greece Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, Bank of Greece, 2011

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Greece Economic Impacts
Sectoral impacts analyzed
Water reserves
Sea level rise
Fisheries
Agriculture
Forests
Biodiversity
Tourism
The built environment
Transport
Health
Mining and quarrying

Climate
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Change?
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References
First Scenario: This is the worst-case scenario in terms of
greenhouse gas emission intensity, called the Inaction
Scenario. It corresponds to no action being taken to
reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
It was estimated that, under this scenario, the total
cumulative cost for the Greek economy over the period
extending till 2100, expressed as GDP loss relative to base
year GDP, would amount to e701 billion (at constant
prices of 2008).

Climate
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References
Second Scenario: This is the Mitigation Scenario,
presumed that the World and Greece would achieve a
consistent and drastic reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions within a broader global e¤ort and that, as a
result, the average global temperature would not increase
by more than 2 C in Greece.
The total cumulative cost of the Mitigation Scenario for
the entire period till 2100, expressed in terms of GDP loss,
comes to e436 billion (at constant prices of 2008).

Climate
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Xepapadeas
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Change?
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Third Scenario: Finally, given that an adaptation policy
is also necessary in order to reduce the damage from
climate change, an Adaptation Scenario was examined.
Under this scenario, the cost of adaptation policies would
total e67 billion. It must, however, be stressed that the
adaptation measures do not eliminate all the damage from
climate change, but simply contain it.
Thus, the cumulative cost for the Greek economy of the
(now reduced) damage from climate change was estimated
at e510 billion (at constant prices of 2008) over the
period till 2100. As a result, the total cost for the Greek
economy under the Adaptation Scenario is the sum of,
…rst, the cost incurred by the economy on account of the
adaptation measures and, second, the cost of the
(reduced) damage from climate change; this sum (the
total cumulative cost through 2100) was estimated at
e577 billion (at constant prices of 2008).

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
Greece Regional Vulnerability Analysis

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
References
S. Athanassoglou, A. Xepapadeas, 2012, Pollution Control
with Uncertain Stock Dynamics: When and How To Be
Precautious, Journal of Environmental Economics and
Management, 62 304-320.
Bank of Greece, 2011, Climate Change Impacts Study
Committee, http://www.bankofgreece.gr/
BoGEkdoseis/ClimateChange_FullReport_bm.pdf
Barrett S, Lenton TM, Millner A, Tavoni A, Carpenter S,
Anderies JM, Chapin FS III, Crépin A-S, Daily G, Ehrlich
P, Folke C, Galaz V, Hughes T, Kautsky N, Lambin E,
Naylor R, Nyborg K, Polasky S, Sche¤er M, Wilen J,
Xepapadeas A, de Zeeuw A (2014) Climate engineering
reconsidered. Nature Climate Change 4:527-529
Brock, W., Engstrom, G., Xepapadeas, A., 2012. Energy
Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time
Pro…le of Climate Change Policy. FEEM, Working Paper
2012.20

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
References
W. Brock, G. Engstrom, A. Xepapadeas, Spatial
Climate-Economic Models in the Design of Optimal
Climate Policies across Locations, European Economic
Review (2014), 78-103.
L.P. Hansen, T. Sargent, 2007, Recursive robust estimation
and control without commitment, Journal of Economic
Theory 136, 1–27.
L.P. Hansen, T. Sargent, 2008, Robustness, Princeton
University Press.
L.P. Hansen, T. Sargent, G. Turhumambetova, N.
Williams, 2006, Robust control and model misspeci…cation,
Journal of Economic Theory 128, 45–90.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
References
Nordhaus, W.D., 2007a. A Question of Balance. Yale
University Press, New Haven & London.
Nordhaus, W.D., 2007b. The Challenge of Global
Warming: Economic Models and Environmental Policy.
Yale University, New Haven, CT.
Nordhaus, W.D., 2010. Economic aspects of global
warming in a post-Copenhagen environment. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America 107 (26), 11721–11726

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
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Modeling and
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Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
References
North, G.R., Cahalan, R.F., Coakley, J.A., 1981. Energy
balance climate models. Reviews of Geophysics and Space
Physics 19 (1), 91–121.
N. Stern, 2007. “The Economics of Climate Change: The
Stern Review.” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
N. Stern, 2008. “The Economics of Climate Change,
American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings 98:2, 1
–37.

Climate
Change
A.
Xepapadeas
What is
Climate
Change?
Economic
Considerations
Stabilization
Modeling and
Policy Design:
IAMs
Open Issues
Concluding
Remarks
Environmental,
Economic, and
Social Impacts
of Climate
Change in
Greece
References
References
M. Weitzman, 2009 On modeling and interpreting the
economics of catastrophic climate change, Review of
Economics and Statistics 91 1–19.
M. Weitzman, 2010,What is the “damages function” for
global warming and what di¤erence might it make?
Climate Change Economics 1 57–69.

Εσπερίδα Περιβαλλοντικής Εκπαίδευσης Δ.Δ.Ε. Β΄ Αθήνας - Presentation xepapadeas observ_june_2016

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Εσπερίδα Περιβαλλοντικής Εκπαίδευσης Δ.Δ.Ε. Β΄ Αθήνας - Presentation xepapadeas observ_june_2016