There is scientific consensus that rising greenhouse gas emissions from human activity will cause global warming and other climate changes. The IPCC projects an increase in average global temperatures by 2100 of 1.4-5.8°C. Climate change will affect human health in many ways, both beneficial and adverse. Research has focused on impacts of extreme heat, infectious diseases, and food security, but climate change may also disrupt societies and economies in ways that indirectly impact health. While some effects are already apparent, such as heat waves increasing mortality, estimating future health impacts involves uncertainty. Evidence of health risks will strengthen arguments for policies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.
This document discusses climate and the potential impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture. It defines climate and differentiates it from weather. It then describes the various natural and human-caused factors that can influence climate on both short and long timescales. The document outlines several ways climate change may negatively impact human health, such as through increased heat waves, extreme weather events, changes in air quality, and shifting patterns of climate-sensitive diseases. It also discusses some of the uncertainties around how climate change will precisely affect agriculture and considers various climate factors that could influence crop yields.
The document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on human health. It finds that climate change has already contributed to increased deaths from heatwaves, cardiovascular disease and respiratory illness. Infectious diseases are also strongly influenced by climate fluctuations, as changes in temperature can alter transmission of diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and hantavirus. Future projections suggest vulnerable regions may experience disproportionate warming and increased health risks from climate change impacts like flooding, drought and extreme weather events.
Haines, kovats.2006.climate change and human health.Luz Marina
The document discusses the impacts of climate change on human health. It states that climate change is occurring due to greenhouse gas emissions and will affect health through increased heat waves, floods, droughts, changes in disease distributions, and disasters. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Recent heat waves in Europe show even developed countries can be negatively impacted. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to address health effects of climate change.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN LIFE:
RISING TEMPERATURE IN INDIA
The research was conducted for the college assignment for the subject of Research Methodology.
Climate-Change by (Christian Darius Paulino)Uschiya_18
This document discusses climate change, including its causes, effects, and prevention. It is caused by both natural factors like variations in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions, as well as human activities that release greenhouse gases. Scientists study climate change using observations and models to understand past and predict future climate. To prevent dangerous climate change, developed countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions 60-80% by 2050 through greater efficiency, use of less harmful alternatives, and sequestration technologies that capture emissions.
1. Climate change poses risks to human health in the UK through increased temperatures, worsening air pollution, and changes in disease patterns.
2. A government report found risks from heatwaves, floods and impacts on food and water safety due to climate change. Vulnerable groups like the elderly are most at risk.
3. Adaptation is needed to prepare for inevitable changes, through measures like improved early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure and public health guidance. Mitigation of greenhouse gases can also benefit health.
Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by Perry Sheffield, Professor of Pediatrics and Preventative Medicine, Mount Sinai
IB Extended Essay Sample APA 2018-2019 by WritingMetier.comWriting Metier
APA style International Baccalaureate Extended Essay Sample years 2018-2019 written by WritingMetier.com
Topic:
Adverse effects of global warming and what can be done to reduce it?
This document discusses climate and the potential impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture. It defines climate and differentiates it from weather. It then describes the various natural and human-caused factors that can influence climate on both short and long timescales. The document outlines several ways climate change may negatively impact human health, such as through increased heat waves, extreme weather events, changes in air quality, and shifting patterns of climate-sensitive diseases. It also discusses some of the uncertainties around how climate change will precisely affect agriculture and considers various climate factors that could influence crop yields.
The document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on human health. It finds that climate change has already contributed to increased deaths from heatwaves, cardiovascular disease and respiratory illness. Infectious diseases are also strongly influenced by climate fluctuations, as changes in temperature can alter transmission of diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and hantavirus. Future projections suggest vulnerable regions may experience disproportionate warming and increased health risks from climate change impacts like flooding, drought and extreme weather events.
Haines, kovats.2006.climate change and human health.Luz Marina
The document discusses the impacts of climate change on human health. It states that climate change is occurring due to greenhouse gas emissions and will affect health through increased heat waves, floods, droughts, changes in disease distributions, and disasters. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Recent heat waves in Europe show even developed countries can be negatively impacted. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to address health effects of climate change.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN LIFE:
RISING TEMPERATURE IN INDIA
The research was conducted for the college assignment for the subject of Research Methodology.
Climate-Change by (Christian Darius Paulino)Uschiya_18
This document discusses climate change, including its causes, effects, and prevention. It is caused by both natural factors like variations in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions, as well as human activities that release greenhouse gases. Scientists study climate change using observations and models to understand past and predict future climate. To prevent dangerous climate change, developed countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions 60-80% by 2050 through greater efficiency, use of less harmful alternatives, and sequestration technologies that capture emissions.
1. Climate change poses risks to human health in the UK through increased temperatures, worsening air pollution, and changes in disease patterns.
2. A government report found risks from heatwaves, floods and impacts on food and water safety due to climate change. Vulnerable groups like the elderly are most at risk.
3. Adaptation is needed to prepare for inevitable changes, through measures like improved early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure and public health guidance. Mitigation of greenhouse gases can also benefit health.
Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by Perry Sheffield, Professor of Pediatrics and Preventative Medicine, Mount Sinai
IB Extended Essay Sample APA 2018-2019 by WritingMetier.comWriting Metier
APA style International Baccalaureate Extended Essay Sample years 2018-2019 written by WritingMetier.com
Topic:
Adverse effects of global warming and what can be done to reduce it?
Climate change refers to the long term rise in average global temperatures due to human activity like burning fossil fuels. This releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, trapping heat and changing the climate in ways that have negative effects. Some consequences of climate change include more extreme weather, economic damages from these events, flooding, landslides and wildfires which can also cause deaths. While natural factors like solar and volcanic activity can influence climate over long periods, human activity is the dominant cause of recent climate change according to scientific studies.
Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic ArgumentsAlexander Ainslie
This document addresses major claims made by climate change skeptics in three categories: that Earth is not warming, that human activity is not responsible for warming, and that action is not needed even if warming is occurring. It summarizes the response to key skeptic arguments, finding that the evidence supports conclusions that Earth is warming due to human greenhouse gas emissions and impacts will be serious without emission reductions. Periods of stable temperatures do not disprove warming, and research has found no evidence of conspiracies among scientists. While imperfect, climate models provide reliable guidance when considered alongside observations and theory. The document provides a balanced and thorough examination of issues in the climate change debate.
The document discusses climate change and its causes according to research by Team Norvergence. It finds that the planet's climate has cycled throughout history, but the global temperature has increased 1 degree Celsius in the last 120 years. Human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have raised greenhouse gas levels exponentially compared to natural levels, influencing the climate. The influence of human emissions on climate change is now overwhelming and causing effects like ocean acidification.
This document argues that climate change constitutes a violation of human rights and the responsibility to protect doctrine, opening up states that are significant contributors to climate change to potential military intervention. It summarizes the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change and its impacts. It frames climate change as a tragedy of the commons problem affecting the global atmosphere. While agreements like the Kyoto Protocol have sought solutions, implementation has been largely symbolic and developing nations have resisted restrictions.
Swechha - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global CoolingNeeraj Parashar
Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.
Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earths climate system, an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by multiple effects of the warming. A worldwide temperature alteration, the wonder of expanding normal air temperatures close to the surface of Earth over the past one to two centuries. Atmosphere researchers have since the mid-twentieth century assembled itemized perceptions of different climate marvels, for example, temperatures, precipitation, and storms and of related influences on atmosphere, for example, sea flows and the airs compound creation . These information demonstrate that Earths atmosphere has changed over pretty much every possible timescale since the start of geologic time and that the influence of human exercises since in any event the start of the Industrial Revolution has been profoundly woven into the specific texture of environmental change. Prof. S. S. Patil "A Study on Global Warming and its Effects" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-2 , February 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd20301.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/geography/20301/a-study-on-global-warming-and-its-effects/prof-s-s-patil
Climate Change Effects on Dengue Fever and Chagas' DiseaseAbigail Lukowicz
Undergraduate capstone project for the class Ecology of Infectious Diseases. This research highlights potential effects of climate change on the Dengue Fever vector (Aedes aegypti) and the Chagas' disease vector (Triatomine spp.). Collaboration with Michael Andreone and Daniel Pastika.
Health, Climate change & WHO - Final donorreport2011Nexomed
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on health, what has been done to address these impacts, and what still needs to be done. It outlines how climate change is affecting health through increased temperatures, extreme weather, air pollution, food and water insecurity. It discusses how the WHO and others have raised awareness, formed partnerships, and conducted research on these issues. However, more still needs to be done to strengthen health systems, policies and funding to protect populations from climate change impacts through essential public health interventions.
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns due to factors like rising global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. These climate patterns determine natural ecosystems and human economies and cultures. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere cause the greenhouse effect and global warming, increasing Earth's surface temperature and affecting climate-dependent processes.
The document discusses evidence that human activity is causing climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. It describes how scientific analysis of ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland reveal that climate change is occurring and that we are heading towards significant changes to the climate. While some argue that climate change is a natural phenomenon, the evidence from feedback mechanisms like chemical weathering of CO2 indicates that human emissions are disrupting these systems and accelerating climate change. The document urges that despite skepticism, the scientific evidence needs to be addressed to mitigate the risks of climate change.
Climate change refers to the rise in average global temperatures due primarily to human use of fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat and can cause a range of effects including rising sea levels, more extreme weather, and droughts that increase wildfires. The scientific community overwhelmingly agrees that climate change poses a severe risk and is primarily human-caused due to emissions from activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation. Potential consequences include stronger storms, flooding, wildfires, and heat waves that threaten lives and infrastructure. While a small minority questions the scientific consensus, most experts agree that climate change poses risks and that reducing emissions would have economic benefits compared to inaction.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
The document discusses how climate change can impact health in several ways. It notes that climate change is causing rising global temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather events. These climate changes are increasing heat waves, flooding, droughts, and raising sea levels, which impact health by exacerbating malnutrition, diseases like malaria and diarrhea, and deaths from extreme weather. Vulnerable groups like the elderly, young, and sick are most at risk.
The document discusses climate change and the greenhouse effect. It notes that climate change is real and caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Computer models consistently predict a 1-4 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures over the next 50-100 years if emissions continue. This level of warming would have catastrophic impacts and require dramatic changes to our energy systems. While models agree on warming, they show more uncertainty and variation in other climate impacts. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further climate change, sea level rise, and impacts, with the magnitude depending on total emissions.
Climate Change & Its Effects on Healthcare: an Evidenced-Based OverviewKR_Barker
This document provides an overview of climate change and its effects on healthcare. It defines climate change and outlines key events in the history of climate change study. It then discusses several pressing climate change issues like air pollution and rising temperatures that negatively impact health. The document also examines how climate change leads to deaths directly through extreme weather and indirectly by worsening air quality, heat exposure, and undernutrition. Finally, it discusses strategies for healthcare facilities and professionals to adapt to and mitigate the health effects of climate change through education, facility design, and combating misinformation.
Climate Change and Water Resources AnalysisMichael DePue
This document summarizes a presentation given on adapting water resources technical analyses to climate change. It discusses several key climate change trends that could impact analyses, including increased precipitation intensities, a longer growing season, and increased drought risk. It outlines how these trends could influence various technical analyses and models used in areas like riverine hydrology, coastal surge modeling, and hydraulic structures. These impacts may include changes to design rainfalls, vegetation changes, erosion impacts, and combined probability issues. The presentation argues technical analyses will need to adapt to incorporate these anticipated climate change impacts.
The document describes a system called Luc.SiMeC that analyzes stoppages on production and packaging lines. It identifies the causes of stoppages, makes interventions to address causes, and optimizes performance by reducing downtime. The system automatically detects machine status and stop events, allows operator summarization of direct stop events, and analyzes event types, timings, and causes. It also manages operational practices, planned maintenance activities, safety information, risk analysis, corrective actions, and documentation. The system runs on a Windows platform using Microsoft SQL Server and .NET with controls from Telerik and interfaces to PLCs from manufacturers like Siemens, Allen-Bradley, and others.
This document provides a list of medical items to treat common vehicle-related injuries including laceration, amputation, and fractures. It includes first aid dressings, wide open width bandages, rubber tourniquets, and a CAT video to demonstrate how to treat fractures.
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang pengertian kinerja, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya, penilaian kinerja, dan cara membangun kinerja karyawan melalui peningkatan kemampuan. Kinerja didefinisikan sebagai hasil kerja kualitas dan kuantitas yang dicapai seseorang sesuai tanggung jawabnya, dipengaruhi oleh kemampuan, motivasi, dukungan, dan hubungan dengan organisasi. Peningkatan kemampuan k
Climate change refers to the long term rise in average global temperatures due to human activity like burning fossil fuels. This releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, trapping heat and changing the climate in ways that have negative effects. Some consequences of climate change include more extreme weather, economic damages from these events, flooding, landslides and wildfires which can also cause deaths. While natural factors like solar and volcanic activity can influence climate over long periods, human activity is the dominant cause of recent climate change according to scientific studies.
Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic ArgumentsAlexander Ainslie
This document addresses major claims made by climate change skeptics in three categories: that Earth is not warming, that human activity is not responsible for warming, and that action is not needed even if warming is occurring. It summarizes the response to key skeptic arguments, finding that the evidence supports conclusions that Earth is warming due to human greenhouse gas emissions and impacts will be serious without emission reductions. Periods of stable temperatures do not disprove warming, and research has found no evidence of conspiracies among scientists. While imperfect, climate models provide reliable guidance when considered alongside observations and theory. The document provides a balanced and thorough examination of issues in the climate change debate.
The document discusses climate change and its causes according to research by Team Norvergence. It finds that the planet's climate has cycled throughout history, but the global temperature has increased 1 degree Celsius in the last 120 years. Human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have raised greenhouse gas levels exponentially compared to natural levels, influencing the climate. The influence of human emissions on climate change is now overwhelming and causing effects like ocean acidification.
This document argues that climate change constitutes a violation of human rights and the responsibility to protect doctrine, opening up states that are significant contributors to climate change to potential military intervention. It summarizes the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change and its impacts. It frames climate change as a tragedy of the commons problem affecting the global atmosphere. While agreements like the Kyoto Protocol have sought solutions, implementation has been largely symbolic and developing nations have resisted restrictions.
Swechha - London Colder than Antarctica" Unusual Trends of Global CoolingNeeraj Parashar
Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.
Global warming is a long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earths climate system, an aspect of climate change shown by temperature measurements and by multiple effects of the warming. A worldwide temperature alteration, the wonder of expanding normal air temperatures close to the surface of Earth over the past one to two centuries. Atmosphere researchers have since the mid-twentieth century assembled itemized perceptions of different climate marvels, for example, temperatures, precipitation, and storms and of related influences on atmosphere, for example, sea flows and the airs compound creation . These information demonstrate that Earths atmosphere has changed over pretty much every possible timescale since the start of geologic time and that the influence of human exercises since in any event the start of the Industrial Revolution has been profoundly woven into the specific texture of environmental change. Prof. S. S. Patil "A Study on Global Warming and its Effects" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-2 , February 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd20301.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/geography/20301/a-study-on-global-warming-and-its-effects/prof-s-s-patil
Climate Change Effects on Dengue Fever and Chagas' DiseaseAbigail Lukowicz
Undergraduate capstone project for the class Ecology of Infectious Diseases. This research highlights potential effects of climate change on the Dengue Fever vector (Aedes aegypti) and the Chagas' disease vector (Triatomine spp.). Collaboration with Michael Andreone and Daniel Pastika.
Health, Climate change & WHO - Final donorreport2011Nexomed
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on health, what has been done to address these impacts, and what still needs to be done. It outlines how climate change is affecting health through increased temperatures, extreme weather, air pollution, food and water insecurity. It discusses how the WHO and others have raised awareness, formed partnerships, and conducted research on these issues. However, more still needs to be done to strengthen health systems, policies and funding to protect populations from climate change impacts through essential public health interventions.
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns due to factors like rising global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions. These climate patterns determine natural ecosystems and human economies and cultures. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere cause the greenhouse effect and global warming, increasing Earth's surface temperature and affecting climate-dependent processes.
The document discusses evidence that human activity is causing climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. It describes how scientific analysis of ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland reveal that climate change is occurring and that we are heading towards significant changes to the climate. While some argue that climate change is a natural phenomenon, the evidence from feedback mechanisms like chemical weathering of CO2 indicates that human emissions are disrupting these systems and accelerating climate change. The document urges that despite skepticism, the scientific evidence needs to be addressed to mitigate the risks of climate change.
Climate change refers to the rise in average global temperatures due primarily to human use of fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat and can cause a range of effects including rising sea levels, more extreme weather, and droughts that increase wildfires. The scientific community overwhelmingly agrees that climate change poses a severe risk and is primarily human-caused due to emissions from activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation. Potential consequences include stronger storms, flooding, wildfires, and heat waves that threaten lives and infrastructure. While a small minority questions the scientific consensus, most experts agree that climate change poses risks and that reducing emissions would have economic benefits compared to inaction.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
The document discusses how climate change can impact health in several ways. It notes that climate change is causing rising global temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather events. These climate changes are increasing heat waves, flooding, droughts, and raising sea levels, which impact health by exacerbating malnutrition, diseases like malaria and diarrhea, and deaths from extreme weather. Vulnerable groups like the elderly, young, and sick are most at risk.
The document discusses climate change and the greenhouse effect. It notes that climate change is real and caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Computer models consistently predict a 1-4 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures over the next 50-100 years if emissions continue. This level of warming would have catastrophic impacts and require dramatic changes to our energy systems. While models agree on warming, they show more uncertainty and variation in other climate impacts. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further climate change, sea level rise, and impacts, with the magnitude depending on total emissions.
Climate Change & Its Effects on Healthcare: an Evidenced-Based OverviewKR_Barker
This document provides an overview of climate change and its effects on healthcare. It defines climate change and outlines key events in the history of climate change study. It then discusses several pressing climate change issues like air pollution and rising temperatures that negatively impact health. The document also examines how climate change leads to deaths directly through extreme weather and indirectly by worsening air quality, heat exposure, and undernutrition. Finally, it discusses strategies for healthcare facilities and professionals to adapt to and mitigate the health effects of climate change through education, facility design, and combating misinformation.
Climate Change and Water Resources AnalysisMichael DePue
This document summarizes a presentation given on adapting water resources technical analyses to climate change. It discusses several key climate change trends that could impact analyses, including increased precipitation intensities, a longer growing season, and increased drought risk. It outlines how these trends could influence various technical analyses and models used in areas like riverine hydrology, coastal surge modeling, and hydraulic structures. These impacts may include changes to design rainfalls, vegetation changes, erosion impacts, and combined probability issues. The presentation argues technical analyses will need to adapt to incorporate these anticipated climate change impacts.
The document describes a system called Luc.SiMeC that analyzes stoppages on production and packaging lines. It identifies the causes of stoppages, makes interventions to address causes, and optimizes performance by reducing downtime. The system automatically detects machine status and stop events, allows operator summarization of direct stop events, and analyzes event types, timings, and causes. It also manages operational practices, planned maintenance activities, safety information, risk analysis, corrective actions, and documentation. The system runs on a Windows platform using Microsoft SQL Server and .NET with controls from Telerik and interfaces to PLCs from manufacturers like Siemens, Allen-Bradley, and others.
This document provides a list of medical items to treat common vehicle-related injuries including laceration, amputation, and fractures. It includes first aid dressings, wide open width bandages, rubber tourniquets, and a CAT video to demonstrate how to treat fractures.
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang pengertian kinerja, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya, penilaian kinerja, dan cara membangun kinerja karyawan melalui peningkatan kemampuan. Kinerja didefinisikan sebagai hasil kerja kualitas dan kuantitas yang dicapai seseorang sesuai tanggung jawabnya, dipengaruhi oleh kemampuan, motivasi, dukungan, dan hubungan dengan organisasi. Peningkatan kemampuan k
Dokumen tersebut merupakan bab pendahuluan dan kurikulum dari program pelatihan kepemimpinan untuk pejabat struktural eselon IV. Tujuan pelatihan ini adalah membentuk kompetensi kepemimpinan operasional bagi para pejabat tersebut agar dapat mempengaruhi seluruh pemangku kepentingan dan bawahan dalam mengimplementasikan kebijakan sektor. Kurikulum pelatihan terdiri atas empat agenda pembelajaran yaitu
El documento presenta un taller sobre aprendizaje colaborativo para estudiantes de sexto y séptimo grado. Describe roles como líder, relator, investigador y vigilante que los estudiantes asumirán para completar actividades en equipo. También incluye un cuento sobre herramientas que trabajan juntas y una reflexión sobre los beneficios del trabajo colaborativo.
El documento instruye elaborar un flujograma en Word sobre un dispensador de jugos con 3 sabores diferentes. Luego se debe guardar el flujograma como PDF y subirlo a SlideShare. También instruye elaborar algunas autoformas como un óvalo en Word, guardarlo como PDF y subirlo a SlideShare.
Climate change will affect human health in many ways. Rising temperatures are expected to increase heat-related deaths and illness, especially among elderly populations. More severe extreme weather events like floods and storms will also cause more injuries and deaths as well as spread infectious diseases. Changes in climate patterns may alter the ranges of some vector-borne diseases, increasing transmission in new areas. Over time, climate change could disrupt global food production and damage ecosystems, leading to widespread health problems. While some regions may see reduced winter mortality, the overall health impacts of climate change are expected to be overwhelmingly negative.
1. The document discusses the impacts of global climate change on human health. It summarizes the findings of the IPCC working groups on observed and projected impacts of climate change through different pathways.
2. Key observed impacts include rising sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and effects on ecosystems. Projected health impacts include increased deaths from heat waves, changing disease vectors, and threats to food security.
3. The document outlines the natural and human causes of climate change and examines the IPCC emissions scenarios for projecting future impacts. Understanding climate change drivers and impacts is important for developing response strategies to protect human health.
- Climate change is occurring due to greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion and will negatively impact human health through various pathways such as increased heat waves, floods, droughts, changes in disease vectors, and effects on malnutrition.
- Populations in low-income countries will be most vulnerable to these health effects, though even high-income countries like those in Europe were adversely affected during the 2003 heat wave.
- Adaptation is needed through public health strategies and surveillance, while mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gases through renewable energy and energy efficiency can also improve near-term health by lowering air pollution exposure.
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxjoellemurphey
Running Head: CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE
Student’s Name
University Affiliation
Climate Change
So there has been an temperature increase on the Earth b 1 degree Farenheit with the past two centuries. Many oblivious persosn would wonder what the big deal is. The one degree being mentioned may appear negligible, but it is actually an extraordinary event in the planet’s history. The preserved and studied Earth’s climate records indicate that the average global temperature has been stable for long periods of time. Furthermore, slight changes in the temperature result in major alterations in the environment.
According to scientific estimations, the environment as we now know it will not be the same in the next 10 years. We should also not forget that the environment is what we depend on fully, not the other way round. As it is, the initiatives to mitigate climate change should first begin with the actions of each and every one at a personal level. Climate change is no longer considered an emerging concern but a lurking catastrophe. This paper seeks to enlighten the reader on climate change, a Geoscience issue that has been the cause of massive research in its various aspects. The paper gains insight on the topic in the most holistic manner possible.
According to other professionals in the field of geology, climate change has been termed as a significant, progressive and lasting alteration in weather’s statistical patterns, noted for periods that range from a decade to millions of ages. Basically, climate change has the potential of being the change in the weather’s average condition or its distribution. The main means that have been used by scientists in understanding the condition’s plight are theoretical and observational. More recently however, there have been improved methods of scrutinizing the situation, through the use of instrumental recordings. Nonetheless, the universally accepted definition of climate change is; the change in climate system’s statistical properties after being considered for a long period of time, where the causes are not regarded.
As a constituent issue, many are unable to distinguish climate and global warming (Giddens, 2009). However, the fault cannot be entirely placed on them as the two are indeed deeply intertwined. I would therefore use this relationship between the two issues to approach both at once. It is common knowledge that climate change is one of the realest threats that our prosperity faces; this being in accordance to a tenfold of research conducted by numerous scientists. Carbon dioxide is among the pollutant gases that contribute to the deterioration of the ozone layer as well as bringing about the greenhouse effect (McKrecher, 2010). Various anthropogenic activities such as deforestation have also been noted as major causes of the progressively increasing climate change. Having stated that, it becomes clear that climate change comes about due to global ...
health can be affected by many factors.These may be in terms of environment and also internal body changes depending on climate.It is discussed in details on these slides the main factors that attribute to the health problems.Countries vary differently in terms of number of people contracting diseases due to different physical,social and psychological effects.
Global climate change refers to long-term changes in average weather patterns globally. Scientists agree that climate change is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions which trap heat in the lower atmosphere. While precipitation and temperature data show the climate is changing, the terms "global warming" and "climate change" mean different things to some groups. For many, climate change is a more encompassing term that global warming.
Global warming will have widespread effects on human societies and economies. It is projected to increase extreme weather events, worsen droughts and wildfires, and raise sea levels. These changes will significantly impact agriculture, causing food shortages and higher prices that put hundreds of millions at risk of hunger by 2060. Coastal communities will be vulnerable to flooding and property damage. The costs of climate change are also economic, with estimates of annual losses of 5-20% of global GDP if no action is taken. Mitigation efforts could reduce these costs substantially.
Global warming will have significant negative effects on human health, agriculture, and the global economy according to the document. It is estimated to already cause over 150,000 deaths per year and will exacerbate problems like infectious diseases, heat waves, droughts, and natural disasters. Agriculture will be impacted through changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures, which could put hundreds of millions of additional people at risk of hunger by 2060. The economic costs of climate change include damage from increased natural disasters, loss of coastal lands, and declines in productivity, with some estimates indicating costs of 5-20% of global GDP if no action is taken.
This document discusses the health impacts of climate change. It notes that climate change influences human health in numerous ways, including increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease from worsening air pollution and heat waves. Certain groups are most vulnerable, such as children, the elderly, and those with low socioeconomic status. The impacts discussed include increased heat waves and wildfires exacerbating air pollution; longer pollen seasons worsening allergies; more extreme precipitation events like flooding and drought influencing waterborne and foodborne illnesses; and shifting vector habitats impacting diseases spread by insects. Adaptation can help reduce but not eliminate health risks from climate change.
The document discusses how climate change can impact health in several ways. It notes that climate change is causing rising global temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather events. These climate changes are increasing heat waves, flooding, droughts, and raising sea levels, which impact health by exacerbating malnutrition, diseases like malaria and diarrhea, and deaths from extreme weather. Vulnerable groups like the elderly, young, and sick are most at risk.
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Effects Of Climatic Change ... These climatic changes have a negative impact on the environment. The ocean level is rising, glaciers are melting, CO2 in the air .... Climate change is caused by the things that people do. The greenhouse gases that come from cars and factories is a major cause of climate change. In fact, it .... Greenhouse gases released such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth's atmosphere cause Global Warming which leads to climate change. Black .... The climate change essay is information on changing weather conditions and its impact on the environment. How to start a climate change essay? You can start a .... 5. 12. 2022 ... Climate Change Essay 10 Lines (100 - 150 Words) · 1) Climate change is the unusual shift in the climate of the earth. · 2) It has an adverse .... 29. 1. 2022 ... In conclusion, climate change is the most significant problem facing the world. Global warming is increasing day by day. If we cannot prevent it .... Climate change refers to the changes in Earth's climate condition. It describes the changes in the atmosphere which have taken place over a period ranging from .... 27. 9. 2022 ... Climate change is primarily caused by the excessive accumulation of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in the Earth's .... 22. 2. 2023 ... Answer: The effects of global warming are disturbing. Due to excessive urbanization, the Earth's temperature is regularly increasing, and .... Essay on Climate Change ... The Change Of The Climate Change. The world continues to spin and spin, and we've always heard about the condition of the climate. We ...
impactos del cambio climatico en ecosistemas costerosXin San
Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine
ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The
relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well
understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in
distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has
revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be
substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more
important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many
organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with
important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one
or a few leverage species may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally,
synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing
pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve
living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the
existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key
demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the
community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations
ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and
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The document discusses climate change and global warming based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It summarizes that global temperatures have risen 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005 according to the IPCC, causing sea level rise, shrinking glaciers and ice caps. The IPCC forecasts continued temperature rise of 2.5-10°F over the next century if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. The effects of climate change will vary by region but include risks from heat waves, flooding, drought and wildfires.
The largest association of meteorologists and climate scientists issued a fresh statement on the scientific evidence for human-driven climate change and possible impacts. This is an update from the 2007 statement that can be found here: http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2007climatechange.html
More on climate change on Dot Earth:
http://j.mp/dotBasic http://j.mp/dotBasics
Global warming is defined as the increase in average surface temperatures on Earth over the past century due to greenhouse gas emissions. The main causes are the greenhouse effect trapping heat from the sun and human activities increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Effects include more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and disrupted ecosystems. While some nations have taken steps to reduce emissions, current trends show temperatures and impacts continuing to increase without serious global action on solutions to mitigate further warming and help societies adapt.
Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures caused primarily by increases in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. This warming leads to changes in climate indicators like rising temperatures, sea levels, and extreme weather events. Humans are largely responsible for recent climate change through releasing greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and other activities. For India, the effects of global warming may include more frequent floods and droughts as well as threats to food security and major cities due to rising seas.
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Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) Curriculum
2006 mac michael-climate-human-health
1. Review
There is near unanimous scientific consensus that the
rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
due to human actions will cause warming (and other
climatic changes) at Earth’s surface. The Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
drawing on the published results of leading modelling
groups around the world, forecasts an increase in world
average temperature by 2100 within the range
1·4–5·8ºC.1
The increase will be greater at higher
latitudes and over land. Global average annual rainfall
will increase, although many mid latitude and lower
latitude land regions will become drier, whereas
elsewhere precipitation events (and flooding) could
become more severe. Climate variability is expected to
increase in a warmer world.
Climatological research over the past two decades
makes clear that Earth’s climate will change in response
to atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation. The
unusually rapid temperature rise (0·5ºC) since the mid-
1970s is substantially attributable to this anthropogenic
increase in greenhouse gases.1,2
Various effects of this
recent warming on non-human systems are apparent.3–9
In view of greenhouse gas longevity and the climate
system’s inertia, climate change would continue for at
least several decades even if radical international pre-
emptive action were taken very soon.1,10
In the 1990s, climate change science relied on climate-
system models with good atmospheric dynamics but
simple representations of the ocean, land surface, sea
ice, and sulphate aerosols, at coarse spatial resolution.
Meanwhile, much has been learnt about how Earth’s
climate system responds to changes in natural and
human generated effects: solar activity, volcanic
eruptions, aerosols, ozone depletion, and greenhouse
gas concentration. Today’s global climate models are
more comprehensive: they include more detailed
representations of the ocean, land-surface, sea-ice,
sulphate and non-sulphate aerosols, the carbon cycle,
vegetation dynamics, and atmospheric chemistry, and at
finer spatial resolution.10
Recent understanding of how
sea surface temperature affects the characteristics of
tropical storms and cyclones, and how ocean subsurface
temperatures, thermocline depths and thicknesses affect
activity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
cycle, tropical cyclone intensification, and landfall
prediction will further enrich modelling capacity.
Today’s models have been well validated against the
recorded data from past decades. Climate model
projections, driven by anticipated future greenhouse gas
and aerosol emissions, indicate that Earth will continue
to warm, with associated increases in sea level and
extreme weather events.
Modelling cannot be an exact science. There is debate
about humankind’s future trajectories for greenhouse
gas emission. There are residual uncertainties about the
sensitivity of the climate system to future atmospheric
changes. The range in the forecast increase in world
average temperature (1·4–5·8o
C) by 2100 indicates both
uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions and
marginal differences in design of the several leading
global climate models (UK, Germany, USA, etc). The
spatial pattern of projected temperature and particularly
rainfall changes also differ between models. Hence,
estimates of climate changes over coming decades are
indicative rather than predictive.1
Note also that the
uncertainty is symmetrical: underestimation of future
climate change is as likely as overestimation. Longer
term, the probability of exceeding critical thresholds—
causing step-changes in climate, environment and
related effects—will increase.1,10
A fundamental global environmental change, affecting
physical systems and ecosystems, will affect human
health in many ways. However, many details are
debated. What health effects will occur? When will they
Lancet 2006; 367: 859–69
Published Online
February 9, 2006
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)
68079-3
National Centre for
Epidemiology and Population
Health, The Australian National
University, Canberra 0200,
Australia
(Prof A J McMichael PhD,
R E Woodruff PhD); and
University of Otago,
Wellington School of Medicine
and Health Sciences,
Wellington, New Zealand
(S Hales PhD)
Correspondence to:
Professor A J McMichael
tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au
www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006 859
Climate change and human health: present and future risks
Anthony J McMichael, Rosalie E Woodruff, Simon Hales
There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will
change Earth’s climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0·5ºC is partly attributable to such anthropogenic
emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways—mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the
epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little
evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published
estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on
thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional
food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to
the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health
effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.
Search strategy and selection criteria
We used keyword combinations to search MEDLINE and
Science Citation Index databases for articles published in all
languages during the years 1995–2005, including the search
terms “climate”, “climate change”, “health”, “health effects”,
“dengue”, “malaria”, “heat”, “heat waves”, “time-series”,
“floods”, “extreme weather”, and “harmful algae”.
2. Review
take place? Will there be both beneficial and adverse
effects?
Publications about relations between (natural)
variation in meteorological variables, especially
temperature, and health effects is extensive,
encompassing several decades. Many papers have been
published, for example, on the association of heat waves
with mortality excesses. Much of this empirical evidence
is uncontentious, and rather than reviewing it
comprehensively, we have cited representative examples
of research published in mainstream journals.
Publications estimating, via modelling and
extrapolation, how climate change will affect population
health in future are much less extensive. They also entail
several controversies (including debate over the relative
effects of climatic versus social, economic, and
topographic conditions on vector-borne infectious
disease transmission). We cite representative reports to
illustrate the main contending points of view. There is
little empirical research exploring whether climate
change over the past three decades has affected health,
and the few papers attributing some particular recent
health changes to climate change are debated. We have
attempted to represent those debates fairly. Finally, little
research has been done on the indirect pathways that
link climate change to resultant social, economic, and
demographic disruptions and their knock-on health
effects. We comment on these because they are
important, despite the sparse research.
There are several limitations to the available
information. First, most empirical climate-health
studies and most national assessments of health risks
from future climate change have been done in high-
income countries. Second, the estimation of future
health trends and effects is necessarily subject to various
uncertainties. Hence, our review inevitably differs from
a more conventional review of published empirical
biomedical evidence.
Figure 1 summarises the main pathways by which
climate change can affect population health. The several
main climatic-environmental manifestations of climate
change are shown in the central section. The right-hand
boxes, from top to bottom, entail an increase in
complexity of causal process and, therefore, in the
likelihood that health effects will be deferred or
protracted. Most of the diverse anticipated health
consequences are adverse, but some would be beneficial.
Milder winters would reduce the normal seasonal peak
mortality in winter in some temperate developed
countries, and warming or drying in already hot regions
would reduce the viability of mosquitoes (table).
The climate-health relationships that are the easiest to
define and study are those in relation to heatwaves, the
physical hazards of floods, storms, and fires, and various
infectious diseases (especially those that are vector-
borne). Other important climatic risks to health, from
changes in regional food yields, disruption of fisheries,
loss of livelihoods, and population displacement
(because of sea-level rise, water shortages, etc) are less
easy to study than these factors and their causal
processes and effects are less easily quantified.
Climate variations and health
Before the prospect of anthropogenic climate change
emerged, epidemiologists were not greatly interested in
climate-health relations. Modern epidemiology has
focused mainly on studying risk factors for non-
communicable diseases in individuals, not populations.
Meanwhile, there have been occasional studies exam-
ining deaths due to heatwaves, some epidemiological
studies of air pollution incorporating temperature as a
covariate, and a continuation of the longer standing
research interest in meteorological effects on microbes,
vectors, and infectious disease transmission. Overall, the
health risks of climate-related thermal stress, floods, and
infectious diseases have been the most amenable to
conventional epidemiological studies.
Extreme weather events
Extreme weather events include periods of very high
temperature, torrential rains and flooding, droughts,
and storms. Over time, regional populations adapt to the
local prevailing climate via physiological, behavioural,
and cultural and technological responses. However,
extreme events often stress populations beyond those
adaptation limits. Understanding the health risks from
860 www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006
Natural climate forcings
(determinants): terrestrial, solar,
planetary, orbital
Changes in
mean climatic
conditions and
variability:
•temperature
•precipitation
•humidity
•wind patterns
Effects on ecosystems:
(land and sea), and on
particular species
Extreme weather
events
•frequency
•severity
•geography
Environmental
degradation:
land, coastal ecosystems,
fisheries
Sea-level rise:
salination of coastal land
and freshwater; storm
surges
Microbial proliferation:
Food poisoning—Salmonella spp,
etc; unsafe drinking water
Changes in vector-pathogen-
host relations and in infectious
disease geography/seasonality—eg,
malaria, dengue, tickborne viral
disease, schistosomiasis
Impaired crop, livestock and
fisheries yields, leading to impaired
nutrition, health, survival
Mitigation
Loss of livelihoods, displacement,
leading to poverty and adverse
health: mental health, infectious
diseases, malnutrition, physical
risks
Anthropogenic
greenhouse gas
emissions
Thermal stress: deaths, illness
Injury/death from floods, storms,
cyclones, bushfires
Effect of these events on food yields
Health effects
Environmental
effects
Climate
change
Mitigation AdaptationAdaptation
Figure 1: Schematic summary of main pathways by which climate change affects population health
Mitigation refers to true primary prevention (reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Adaptation (a form of late
primary prevention) entails interventions to lessen adverse health effects.
3. Review
these events is important because the future frequency
and intensity of extreme events is expected to change as
both climatic means and variability change.1
Thermal stress
Populations typically display an optimum temperature at
which the (daily or weekly) death rate is lowest. Mortality
rates rise at temperatures outside this comfort zone.11
Figure 2 shows a typical U-shaped relation. The trough
represents the comfort zone; the steeper (right-side) arm
of each line shows the mortality increase at hot
temperatures, and the shallower (left-side) arm of each
line shows the increase with colder temperatures.
The temperature-mortality relation varies greatly by
latitude and climatic zone. People in hotter cities are more
affected by colder temperatures, and people in colder
cities are more affected by warmer temperatures.11,12
Regions where housing provides poor protection against
cold have higher excess winter mortality than expected for
that location.13
In the UK and some other northern high-
latitude countries, seasonal death rates and illness events
are higher in winter than in summer.14–18,30,102,103
There, the
role of cold temperature itself, beyond the role of seasonal
infectious agents (influenza in elderly people104
and
respiratory syncytial virus in infants105
) and seasonal
haematological changes,102
remains unresolved.
Most epidemiological studies of extreme temperatures
have been done in Europe and North America. These
studies have shown a positive association between
heatwaves and mortality, with elderly people (who have
diminished physiological capacity for thermoreg-
ulation),19,20
especially women,21–23
being the most
affected. Other research indicates that mentally ill
people,106
children,24,107
and others in thermally stressful
occupations or with pre-existing illness are also
vulnerable. The striking mortality excess (about
30 000 deaths) during the extreme heatwave of August,
2003, in Europe,25
especially France,26
attests to the
lethality of such events. The actual burden of life-years
lost depends on the proportion of those deaths that is
due to short-term mortality displacement in people
otherwise likely to have died within the next 1–2 months.
In the USA this proportion is around 30–40%.108
Most heatwave deaths occur in people with pre-existing
cardiovascular disease (heart attack and stroke) or chronic
respiratory diseases. People living in urban environments
are at greater risk than those in non-urban regions.27
Thermally inefficient housing28
and the so-called urban
heat island effect (whereby inner urban environments,
with high thermal mass and low ventilation, absorb and
retain heat) amplify and extend the rise in temperatures
(especially overnight).20
In 2003 in Paris26
many nursing
homes and other assisted-living and retirement
communities were not air-conditioned, and elderly
residents might not have been promptly moved to air-
conditioned shelters and rehydrated with fluids.
www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006 861
Adverse effect Beneficial effect References
Climate variability Climate change
Temperature extremes More daily deaths and disease Reduced winter deaths and disease 11–13, 14, 15–18, 30–36
(more very hot days, events—primarily due to more events in (at least some) temperate 19–29
possibly fewer very cold days) very hot days countries
Floods More injuries, deaths and other 37–44 2, 34, 45–47
sequelae (infectious disease, mental
health disorders)
Aero-allergen production Increased allergic disorders (hay Reduced exposure to aero-allergens in 48
fever, asthma) due to longer pollen some regions due to lesser production
season or shorter season of pollen circulation
Food-poisoning (diarrhoeal Greater risks at higher temperature 40, 49–55 34
disease) (especially salmonellosis)
Water-borne infection Cholera risk might be amplified by Less risk where (heavy) rainfall diminishes 40, 56–61 62–64
coastal/estuarine water warming,
local flooding
Vector-borne infections Mosquito-borne infections tend to Mosquito reproduction and survival could 65–76 34, 60, 77–95
increase with warming and certain be impaired by altered rainfall and surface
changes in rainfall patterns: heightened water and by excessive heat: reduced
transmission. Likewise tick-borne transmission. Similar determinants may apply
infections, although via more complex to ticks, snails and other vectors.
ecological changes
Regional crop yields Reductions in many low-latitude and Increases in currently too-cold regions (might 34, 96, 97
low-rainfall regions not be sustained with continuing climate change)
Fisheries Declines or shifts in local fisheries: Latitudinal shifts of fisheries, with ocean 98–100
protein shortages (in poor populations). warming, may benefit new host populations
Possible increased contamination
Sea-level rise Health consequences of population 101
displacement, lost livelihood, exposure
to coastal storm surges and floods.
Salinisation of freshwater and coastal soil.
Table: Main known and probable health hazards of climate variability and climate change
4. Review
Physiological and behavioural adaptations can reduce
heatwave morbidity and mortality,20
as can changes in
public health preparedness.109
An overall drop in
mortality associated with heatwaves across a recent
three-decade period in 28 US cities29
shows that weather-
mortality relations can change over time. This decline
indicates that adaptations to climate change (air
conditioning, improved health care, and public
awareness—along with changes in underlying health
status) can reduce risks. Even so, under extreme
conditions an increase in deaths can arise in cities that
are accustomed to heatwaves and have high levels of
prevention awareness and air conditioning.110
Floods
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that
overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience,
and social organisation. From 1992 to 2001, there were
2257 reported disasters due to droughts or famines,
extreme temperature, floods, forest/scrub fires,
cyclones, and windstorms. The most frequent natural
weather disaster was flooding (43%), killing almost
100 000 people and affecting over 1·2 billion people.37
Floods result from the interaction of rainfall, surface
run-off, evaporation, wind, sea level, and local
topography. In inland areas, flood regimens vary
substantially depending on catchment size, topography,
and climate.111
Where people live close to rivers, natural
flows have usually been modified to avoid floods (eg, by
constructing levees, dikes, and dams). Water
management practices, urbanisation, intensified land
use, and forestry can substantially alter the risks of
floods.38,39,45,111,112
The trend in high-income countries for
people to move to the coast, along with the world’s
topographic profile of deltas and coral atolls, means that
many settlements and much arable land are at
increasing risk from flooding due to rise of sea level.46
Floods have recently tended to intensify, and this trend
could increase with climate change.3,47
The ENSO cycle
determines inter-annual variability in temperature and
in rainfall, and the likelihood of flooding, storms, and
droughts in many regions.113
It is a major part of the
world’s pre-eminent source of climate variability: the
Pacific Ocean and its several regional climatic
oscillations. It has a far-reaching, quasi-periodic,
westward-extending effect every 3–6 years. Some health
consequences arise during or soon after the flooding
(such as injuries, communicable diseases,40
or exposure
to toxic pollutants41
), whereas others (malnutrition42
and
mental health disorders43,44
) occur later. Excessive rainfall
facilitates entry of human sewage and animal wastes
into waterways and drinking water supplies,
potentiating water-borne diseases.56–59
Globally, disaster
effects are greatest for droughts (and associated
famines) because of their regional extent.114
Infectious diseases
Transmission of infectious disease is determined by
many factors, including extrinsic social, economic,
climatic, and ecological conditions,115
and intrinsic
human immunity (analytic methods that differentiate
extrinsic and intrinsic influences are now evolving116
).
Many infectious agents, vector organisms, non-human
reservoir species, and rate of pathogen replication are
sensitive to climatic conditions.60,61
Both salmonella and
cholera bacteria, for example, proliferate more rapidly at
higher temperatures, salmonella in animal gut and food,
cholera in water. In regions where low temperature, low
rainfall, or absence of vector habitat restrict trans-
mission of vector-borne disease, climatic changes could
tip the ecological balance and trigger epidemics.
Epidemics can also result from climate-related migra-
tion of reservoir hosts or human populations.117
In many recent studies investigators have examined
the relation between short-term climatic variation and
occurrence of infectious disease—especially vector-
borne disease. Studies in south Asia and South America
(Venezuela and Columbia) have documented the
association of malaria outbreaks with the ENSO cycle.65–68
In the Asia-Pacific region, El Niño and La Niña events
seem to have affected the occurrence of dengue fever
outbreaks.69–71
Similarly, inter-annual (especially ENSO-
related) variations in climatic and environmental
conditions in Australia affect outbreaks of Ross River
virus disease.72,73,118
Many of these associations between infectious
diseases and El Niño events have a plausible climatic
explanation. High temperatures in particular affect
vector and pathogen. The effect of rainfall is more
complex. For example, in tropical and subtropical
regions with crowding and poverty, heavy rainfall and
flooding may trigger outbreaks of diarrhoea, whereas
very high rainfall can reduce mosquito populations by
flushing larvae from their habitat in pooled water.
862 www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006
2005 distribution
2050 distribution
2050 annual temperature range
Daily temperature
Low High
2005 annual temperature range
Fewer cold-
related deaths
Note: some
acclimatisation
More heat-
related deaths
Numberofdailydeaths
Figure 2: Schematic representation of how an increase in average annual
temperature would affect annual total of temperature-related deaths, by
shifting distribution of daily temperatures to the right
Additional heat-related deaths in summer would outweigh the extra winter
deaths averted (as may happen in some northern European countries). Average
daily temperature range in temperate countries would be about 5–30ºC.
5. Review
Increased notifications of (non-specific) food
poisoning in the UK49,50
and of diarrhoeal diseases in
Peru and Fiji51,59
have accompanied short-term increases
in temperature. Further, strong linear associations have
been noted between temperature and notifications of
salmonellosis in European countries52
and Australia,53
and a weak seasonal relation exists for campylobacter.54,55
Are any health effects of climate change
detectable?
Since global temperatures have risen noticeably over the
past three decades (see introduction), some health
outcomes are likely to already have been affected.
However, there is nothing distinctive about the actual
types of health outcomes due to longer-term climate
change, versus shorter-term natural variation. Hence,
the detection of health effects due to climate change is at
this early stage difficult. However, if changes in various
health outcomes occur, each plausibly due to the
preceding climate change, then pattern-recognition can
be used—as was recently used for assessment of non-
human effects of recent climate change.119
The complexity of some causal pathways makes
attribution difficult. Recent climate change might have
contributed (via changes in temperature, rainfall, soil
moisture, and pest and disease activity) to altered food
yields in some regions.96
In food-insecure populations
this alteration may already be contributing to
malnutrition. Subsistence hunting and fishing have
been much harmed by recent climate changes in
Alaska, through stresses on fish and wildlife driven by
warming of air and sea, sea ice retreat, and ecosystem
shifts.98
Some actions taken in response to the advent of
climate change also entail health risks. Sea level
(figure 1) has risen moderately in recent decades, and
population relocation from some of the lowest-lying
Pacific islands is starting to take place.101
Such
displacement often increases nutritional, physical,
infectious disease, and mental health risks.
Extreme events
The number of people adversely affected by El Niño-
related weather events over three recent decades,
worldwide, appears to have increased greatly.120
Systematic studies of trends over time in the effects of
extreme events on human populations are needed to
clarify this situation. One manifestation of global
warming over the past 50 years is an increased duration
of heatwaves in Alaska, Canada, central and eastern
Europe, Siberia, and central Australia (data for South
America and Africa are unavailable).121
Although no one
extreme event can be attributed solely to climate change,
the probability of a particular event occurring under
modified climatic conditions can be estimated. Recent
studies have shown that the record-breaking 2003
European summer heatwave was consistent with climate-
change modelling31,32
and substantially attributable to
human-induced warming.33
Rainfall seems to have become more variable globally,
and the frequency of intense rainfall has increased in
some areas.1
However, evidence that climate change has
affected the frequency or magnitude of river floods is
inconsistent.81,122,123
Globally there has been a substantial
increase in the risk of great floods (ie, in river basins
larger than 200 000 km2
and at levels greater than
100 years) over the past century.47
At this stage,
therefore, to attribute changes in flood-related health
effects to climate change is difficult.
Infectious diseases
Several recent reports have shown that climate change
might be affecting some infectious diseases—although
no one study is conclusive. Tick-borne (viral)
encephalitis in Sweden has reportedly increased in
response to a succession of warmer winters over the
past two decades,77,78
although this interpretation is
contested.79
The geographic range of ticks that transmit
Lyme borreliosis and viral encephalitis has extended
northwards in Sweden78
and increased in altitude in the
Czech Republic.124
These extensions have accompanied
recent trends in climate.78,125
Changes in the intensity (amplitude) of the El Niño
cycle since 1975, and more recently its frequency—both
probably manifestations of climate change—have been
accompanied by a strengthening of the relation between
that cycle and cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh.62
The
cholera vibrio naturally harbours within coastal and
estuarine marine algae and copepods, whose
proliferation is affected by sea-surface temperature and
other environmental factors.63
Evidence of marine
ecosystem changes linked to climate trends126
indicates
that climate change is amplifying harmful algal
blooms.64,127
There is some, though inconclusive, evidence of
increases in malaria in the eastern African highlands in
association with local warming. Several investigators
have documented an increase in highland malaria in
recent decades,80–82
including in association with local
warming trends.83,128
Although two other studies showed
no statistically significant trends in climate in those
same regions,84,85
the medium-resolution climate data
used129
were not well suited to research at this smaller
geographical scale.130
Within the climate range that limits the transmission
rate and geographic bounds of infectious disease, many
other social, economic, behavioural, and environmental
factors also affect disease occurrence. For example,
many environmental factors affect malaria incidence,
including altitude,131
topography,132
environmental
disturbance,74
short-term climate variability,75
ENSO,76,114
and longer-term climate trends.130
To make a
quantitative attribution of change in incidence to any
single factor is therefore difficult.
www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006 863
6. Review
Can current effects be estimated, if not yet directly
observed? The current burden of disease attributable to
climate change has been estimated by WHO as part of
the Global Burden of Disease (2000) project, a
comprehensive standardised risk assessment exercise
that underwent critical review.133
The estimation of
the attributable burden was a statistical exercise that
entailed three steps: (i) estimation of the baseline
average annual disease burden in 1961–90; (ii)
specification (from published work) of the increase
in disease risk per unit increase in temperature or other
climate variable; and (iii) estimation, by geographic
region, of the current and future global distributions of
population health effects of the change in climate. The
extent of climate change (relative to the 1961–90 average
climate) by the year 2000 is estimated to have caused in
that year around 160 000 deaths worldwide and the loss
of 5 500 000 disability-adjusted life-years (from malaria,
malnutrition, diarrhoeal disease, heatwaves, and floods).34
This exercise was conservative in several respects,
including being limited to quantifiable health outcomes.
Nevertheless, is it reasonable to attribute a proportion of
global deaths from malaria, malnutrition, or other such
outcomes in 2000, to the global warming that has taken
place since around 1975? The fact that equivalent
estimations are routinely made for other such relation-
ships involving a disease with known multivariate
causation—eg, the proportion of all stroke deaths in
2000 attributable to hypertension134
—suggests that, in
principle, wherever a well documented exposure-effect
relation exists, the incremental change in health
outcome can legitimately be estimated for an incre-
mental exposure (eg, temperature).
A more specific question is, can we attribute to climate
change some fraction of the health effect associated with
a particular climatic event that itself is partly attributable
to climate change? For example, the probability of
occurrence of the severe European heatwave of 2003 was
estimated to have been doubled by the underlying
warming trend largely induced by human activities.33
Simple arithmetic therefore suggests that half the excess
heat was due to that warming. Thus we could infer that
approximately half of excess deaths during the 2003
heatwave were due to that underlying anthropogenic
contribution.
Estimates of future health effects
Climate change will have many effects on health over the
coming decades (figure 1). In view of the residual
uncertainties in modelling, how the climate system will
respond to future higher levels of greenhouse gases, and
uncertainties over how societies will develop econom-
ically, technologically, and demographically, formal
predictions of future health effects cannot be made. The
appropriate task is to make estimations, for future
modelled climate situations, of the consequent health
effects.136
This estimation can be done in three contexts: (i) in
classic experimental fashion, holding constant all other
non-climate factors likely to affect future health; (ii)
incorporating such factors acting independently into a
multivariate model, to estimate net changes in
population health burden; (iii) also incorporating effect-
modifying factors, especially those due to adaptive
responses. Not surprisingly, much of the initial
modelling research has been of type (i) above. Published
work consists of both reports of specific modelling
studies and of systematic assessments done over the
past decade by national governments (eg, UK, Australia,
USA, Portugal, Norway, Japan) and, recently, by WHO
as part of its global burden of disease (2000)
assessment.135
Extreme events
The early modelling of the effect of extreme events
assumed that climate change would act mainly by
shifting the mean values of temperature and other
meteorological variables. Little attention was paid to the
possibility of altered climate variability.136
Recently
however, there have been gains in the modelling of how
climatic variability will also change in future. One such
study, for example, has estimated that major cities in
Europe and northern USA will have substantial rises in
both frequency and duration of severe heatwaves by
2090.32
The importance of considering changes in
variability is illustrated in figure 3: small changes in
temperature variability, along with a shift in mean
temperature, can greatly increase the frequency of
extreme heat. Similar reasoning applies to other
meteorological variables. Because populations in high-
income countries are predicted to age substantially over
coming decades (the proportion aged over 60 years
increasing from 19% to 32% by 2050),137
and with a trend
towards urbanisation in all countries (projected to
increase from 45% in 1995 to 61% by 2030),138
a greater
proportion of people in all countries will be at risk from
heat extremes in future, even without substantial climate
change.139
In Australia, for a medium-emissions climate
change setting in 2050, the annual number of deaths
attributable to excess heat in capital city populations is
expected to increase by 50% to 1650 (assuming no
change in population size and profile).35
Conversely, the mortality risk from cold weather is
expected to decline in northern latitudes.36
Currently,
physiological and behavioural acclimatisation probably
explains the gradient in the low-temperature threshold
for increasing mortality, apparent from northern to
southern Europe.12
But whether populations can offset
temperature-related changes in mortality risks by
acclimatisation (eg, through changes in building
design12
) is uncertain.
The accurate estimation of future deaths from floods
and storms is impeded by the absence of empirically
documented exposure-response relations. Further, the
864 www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006
7. Review
typical spatial scale of global climate models—even at
the country level—is still too coarse for reliable
projections of precipitation.45
Unless current deficiencies
in watershed protection, infrastructure, and storm
drainage systems are remedied, the risk of water-borne
contamination events will probably increase.40
Infectious diseases
Climate change will affect the potential incidence,
seasonal transmission, and geographic range of various
vector-borne diseases. These diseases would include
malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever (all mosquito-
borne), various types of viral encephalitis, schistoso-
miasis (water-snails), leishmaniasis (sand-flies: South
America and Mediterranean coast), Lyme disease (ticks),
and onchocerciasis (West African river blindness, spread
by black flies).86
The formal modelling of the effects of climate change
on vector-borne diseases has focused on malaria and
dengue fever. Modelling of dengue fever is conceptually
simpler than for malaria. Whereas malaria entails two
main pathogen variants (falciparum and vivax) and relies
on several dozen regionally dominant mosquito species,
dengue fever transmission depends principally on one
mosquito vector, Aedes aegyptii. Both statistical and
biologically based (mathematical) models have been
used to assess how a specified change in temperature
and rainfall pattern would affect the potential for
transmission of these and other vector-borne diseases.
Various research groups have published estimates of
how climate change will affect future transmission of
malaria.87–93
Biologically based models of climate-malaria
futures depend on the documented mathematical
relation between temperature and transmission,
including a simple threshold for the effect of rainfall.
Empirical statistical models can account for interactions
between temperature and rainfall effects, but are
affected by the uncertainty of modelled projections of
future rainfall.92
Several models project a small
geographical expansion of potential malaria
transmission in the next few decades,88,90
with some
estimating more substantial changes later this
century.90,91,93
In several studies that have modelled
seasonal changes in transmission researchers estimate a
substantial extension—such as a 16–28% increase in
person-months of exposure to malaria in Africa by
2100.89
Three research groups have estimated how climate
change will affect dengue fever. Early models were
biologically based, driven mainly by the known effect of
temperature on virus replication within the mosquito.
Warmer temperatures (up to a threshold) shorten the
time for mosquitoes to become infectious, increasing
the probability of transmission.94
Studies with both
biologically based94
and statistical models95
project
substantial increases in the population at risk of dengue
(eg, figure 4).
Such modelling excludes many (often unforeseeable)
non-climate aspects of the future world. Nevertheless,
estimation of how the intrinsic probability of disease
transmission would alter in response to climate change
alone is informative—and accords with classic experi-
mental science (see type (i) in Estimates of future health
effects). Whether the change in disease transmission
actually occurs also depends on non-climate factors;
presence of vector and pathogen is prerequisite, as is
vector access to non-immune people. The transmission
of such diseases is also much affected by socioeconomic
conditions and by the robustness of public health
defences.91,140,141
For example, case surveillance and
treatment in fringe areas, management of deforestation
and surface water, and effective mosquito control
programmes would tend to offset the increased risk due
to climate change, whereas universally-funded bed-net
campaigns would reduce infection rates. Future
modelling will benefit by incorporation of those non-
climate contextual changes that are reasonably
foreseeable.
Other health effects
Beyond the specific and quantifiable risks to health are
indirect and knock-on health effects due to the social,
economic, and political disruptions of climate change,
including effects on regional food yields and water
supplies. Modelling of climate change effects on cereal
grain yields indicates a future world of regional winners
and losers, with a 5–10% increase in the global number
of underfed people.97
The conflicts and the migrant and
refugee flows likely to result from these wider-ranging
effects would, typically, increase infectious diseases,
malnutrition, mental health problems, and injury and
violent death. Future assessments of the health effects of
climate change should attempt order-of-magnitude
estimates of these more diffuse risks to health.
www.thelancet.com Vol 367 March 11, 2006 865
TemperatureFrequency
5% 1% 1%
Very cold Very hot
15% 25%
(a)
(b)
Baseline distribution
Increase in mean temperature
Increase in temperature mean and variability
Criterion temperatures
Figure 3: The effect of increases in (a) mean temperature, and (b) temperature mean and variability, on
frequency of extreme temperature days
Arrows designate the area-under-the-curve, beyond the criterion temperatures for very cold and very hot.
Percentages are approximate only.
8. Review
The wider ramifications of climate change for health
are well illustrated by a recent study of how ocean
warming around the Faroe Islands will facilitate the
methylation of (pollutant) mercury and its subsequent
uptake by fish. Concentrations in cod and pilot whales
would increase by an estimated 3–5% for a 1ºC rise in
water temperature.99
Eating methyl-mercury-contam-
inated fish impairs fetal-infant neurocognitive develop-
ment.142
Further, ocean warming is already beginning to
cause geographic shifts in fisheries.100
Climate change
might also alter the timing and duration of pollen and
spore seasons and the geographic range of these
aeroallergens, affecting allergic disorders such as hay
fever and asthma.48
The advent of changes in global climate signals that
we are now living beyond Earth’s capacity to absorb a
major waste product: anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
The resultant risks to health (and other environmental
and societal outcomes) are anticipated to compound
over time as climate change—along with other large-
scale environmental and social changes—continues.
Research on climate, climate change, and health has
focused largely on thermal stress, other extreme
weather events, and infectious diseases. The wider
spectrum of health risks should now be given more
attention. With the adaptability of human culture, many
communities will be able to buffer themselves (at least
temporarily) against some of the effects of climate
change. Buffering capacity, though, varies greatly
between regions and communities, indicating
differences in geography, technological resources,
governance, and wealth.143
Research to characterise
vulnerable groups is needed.
Knowledge of vulnerability allows an informed
approach to development and evaluation of adaptive
strategies to lessen those health risks. Although details144
are beyond our scope here, it is noteworthy that
governments are now paying increasing attention to
adaptation options. Researchers must engage, too, with
the formulation, evaluation, and economic costing of
adaptive strategies. Beyond structural, technological,
procedural, and behavioural adaptations by at-risk
communities are larger-scale technical possibilities—
such as applying satellite data and computer modelling
to natural disaster forecasting, and geographic
information system modelling of the effect of changes in
rainfall and vegetation on specific infectious diseases.
Other generalised strategies include protection from
coastal storm surges, improved sentinel case
surveillance for infectious diseases, development of
crops resistant to drought and disease, and most
importantly, the fostering of renewable energy sources.
Conclusion
Research into the existence, future likelihood, and
magnitude of health consequences of climate change
represents an important input to international and
national policy debates. Recognition of widespread
health risks should widen these debates beyond the
already important considerations of economic
disruption, risks to infrastructure, loss of amenity, and
threatened species. The evidence and anticipation of
adverse health effects will indicate priorities for planned
adaptive strategies, and crucially, will strengthen the
case for pre-emptive policies. It will help us understand
better the real meaning of sustainability.
Conflict of interest statement
All the authors have been or are involved in the scientific review
activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Kevin Hennessy and Sari Kovats for helpful
comments.
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