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Introduction to climate change science
Prof. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Climate Change is a Large Issue
Majority of the sciences are involved.
Business/Industry has a stake.
Involves citizens, politicians, public policy experts.
Every sector of the economy affected.
All aspects of our lives touched:
environment, jobs, health, politics, etc.
What is happening in the
climate system?
What are the risks?
What can be done?
IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution
1990
1995
2001
2007
2013
Climate system
Main components: the atmosphere, hydrosphere [liquid water
components], cryosphere [frozen water components], lithosphere [land
surface] and biosphere [living things]) and the interactions between them
THE COMPOSITION OF AIR IS
CHANGING RAPIDLY due to human
activities:
→ more GHG (CO2, CH4, NOx...)
→ more aerosol (air pollution)
Human activities induced LAND USE
CHANGES
→ deforestation changed CO2 balance, more
GHG (CO2)
→ changes in albedo, water balance etc.
Primary energy consumption and total global
emissions are increasing
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and
nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at
least the last 800,000 years.
–18°C +15°C
Earth without air Our planet
+ 33°C
If the EARTH had no atmosphere, it would
be very cold
Natural GHG effect
33 °C
Other GHG <1 °C
CO2 2 °C
H2O 31 °C
–18oC
+15oC
Enhanced GHG
effect
33 °C
+ 1 °C
Other GHG <1 °C
CO2 2 °C + 1oC
H2O 31 °C
–18oC
+16oC
Warming rate K/100 y
• The Earth gets warmer as CO2 increases in the atmosphere
• The Earth doesn't warm uniformly, the oceans warm slower
than the continents and arctic
Changes in water cycle
drier wetter
Number of world natural catastrophes
1980-2017
GHG radiative forcing values are
getting bigger every year
RCPs Scenarios
Representative Concentration Pathways
radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values
+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2
Climate models have improved in the last decade. Models
reproduce observed surface temperature patterns and trends
over many decades and are used for climate projections.
Climate models
• Climate models are systems of differential
equations based on the basic laws of physics,
fluid motion, and chemistry.
• GCMs divide earth into many layers of grids.
GCMs provide forecasts for each grid point,
which represent average values for a grid.
• Using more than one GCM is recommended to
avoid the effects of model bias.
Regional aspects of surface warming
Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015
1.5°C 2°C 4°C
°C
Regional aspects of precipitation change
Water cycle change :
• for 50% of world’s population at
+2°C
• for 40% of land surface at +3°C
Sedlacek and Knutti, 2014; Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015
1.5°C 2°C 4°C
% precipitation
change
Downscaling is a technique to obtain information for a
finer scale from information for a larger scale.
Projections Europe (RCP4.5)
2081-2100 versus 1986-2005
Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)
winter summer winter half summer half
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Impacts are already underway
• Tropics to the poles
• On all continents and in the ocean
• Affecting rich and poor countries
(but the poor are more vulnerable
everywhere)
AR5 WGII SPM
Facing the dangers from climate change…
…there are only three options:
Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the
pace & magnitude of the changes in global
climate being caused by human activities.
Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the
adverse impacts on human well-being resulting
from the changes in climate that do occur.
Suffering the adverse impacts that are not
avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.
Concluding thoughts
• Human influence on the climate system is clear.
This is evident from the increasing GHG
concentrations, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system.
• Continued emissions of GHG will cause further
warming and changes in all components of the
climate system.
• We can still limit climate change by substantial
and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions.

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Students - Introduction to climate change science

  • 1. Introduction to climate change science Prof. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
  • 2. Climate Change is a Large Issue Majority of the sciences are involved. Business/Industry has a stake. Involves citizens, politicians, public policy experts. Every sector of the economy affected. All aspects of our lives touched: environment, jobs, health, politics, etc.
  • 3. What is happening in the climate system? What are the risks? What can be done?
  • 4. IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution 1990 1995 2001 2007 2013
  • 5. Climate system Main components: the atmosphere, hydrosphere [liquid water components], cryosphere [frozen water components], lithosphere [land surface] and biosphere [living things]) and the interactions between them
  • 6. THE COMPOSITION OF AIR IS CHANGING RAPIDLY due to human activities: → more GHG (CO2, CH4, NOx...) → more aerosol (air pollution) Human activities induced LAND USE CHANGES → deforestation changed CO2 balance, more GHG (CO2) → changes in albedo, water balance etc.
  • 7.
  • 8. Primary energy consumption and total global emissions are increasing
  • 9. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
  • 10. –18°C +15°C Earth without air Our planet + 33°C If the EARTH had no atmosphere, it would be very cold
  • 11. Natural GHG effect 33 °C Other GHG <1 °C CO2 2 °C H2O 31 °C –18oC +15oC
  • 12. Enhanced GHG effect 33 °C + 1 °C Other GHG <1 °C CO2 2 °C + 1oC H2O 31 °C –18oC +16oC
  • 13.
  • 14. Warming rate K/100 y • The Earth gets warmer as CO2 increases in the atmosphere • The Earth doesn't warm uniformly, the oceans warm slower than the continents and arctic
  • 15. Changes in water cycle drier wetter
  • 16.
  • 17. Number of world natural catastrophes 1980-2017
  • 18.
  • 19. GHG radiative forcing values are getting bigger every year
  • 20. RCPs Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2
  • 21. Climate models have improved in the last decade. Models reproduce observed surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades and are used for climate projections.
  • 22. Climate models • Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. • GCMs divide earth into many layers of grids. GCMs provide forecasts for each grid point, which represent average values for a grid. • Using more than one GCM is recommended to avoid the effects of model bias.
  • 23.
  • 24. Regional aspects of surface warming Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 1.5°C 2°C 4°C °C
  • 25. Regional aspects of precipitation change Water cycle change : • for 50% of world’s population at +2°C • for 40% of land surface at +3°C Sedlacek and Knutti, 2014; Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 1.5°C 2°C 4°C % precipitation change
  • 26.
  • 27. Downscaling is a technique to obtain information for a finer scale from information for a larger scale.
  • 28. Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005 Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%) winter summer winter half summer half
  • 29. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Impacts are already underway • Tropics to the poles • On all continents and in the ocean • Affecting rich and poor countries (but the poor are more vulnerable everywhere) AR5 WGII SPM
  • 30. Facing the dangers from climate change… …there are only three options: Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace & magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities. Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur. Suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.
  • 31. Concluding thoughts • Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing GHG concentrations, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. • Continued emissions of GHG will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. • We can still limit climate change by substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.