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SECTION 7-1
Basic Principles of Probability
Warm-up
A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks.
   Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer.
1. What is the probability that the sock is red?



2. What is the probability that the sock is not white?



3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
Warm-up
A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks.
   Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer.
1. What is the probability that the sock is red?
                    r
                  r+b+w
2. What is the probability that the sock is not white?



3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
Warm-up
A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks.
   Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer.
1. What is the probability that the sock is red?
                    r
                  r+b+w
2. What is the probability that the sock is not white?
                   r+b
                  r+b+w
3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
Warm-up
A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks.
   Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer.
1. What is the probability that the sock is red?
                    r
                  r+b+w
2. What is the probability that the sock is not white?
                   r+b
                  r+b+w
3. What is the probability that the sock is green?

                      0
Probability theory:
Probability theory: The study of chance using math
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment:
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment: A situation with several possible results
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment: A situation with several possible results




Outcome:
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment: A situation with several possible results




Outcome: A possible result of an experiment
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment: A situation with several possible results




Outcome: A possible result of an experiment




Sample Space:
Probability theory: The study of chance using math




Experiment: A situation with several possible results




Outcome: A possible result of an experiment




Sample Space: The set of the total number of possible outcomes
   of an experiment
Example 1
A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random.
       a. Give the sample space and describe some of the
                   characteristics of the deck.
Example 1
A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random.
       a. Give the sample space and describe some of the
                   characteristics of the deck.
        The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards.
Example 1
A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random.
       a. Give the sample space and describe some of the
                   characteristics of the deck.
        The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards.

There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs,
                           13 spades)
Example 1
A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random.
       a. Give the sample space and describe some of the
                   characteristics of the deck.
         The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards.

There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs,
                           13 spades)

Each suit has 4 face cards (J, Q, K, A) for a total of 16 in the deck
Example 1
A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random.
       a. Give the sample space and describe some of the
                   characteristics of the deck.
         The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards.

There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs,
                           13 spades)

Each suit has 4 face cards (J, Q, K, A) for a total of 16 in the deck

                          Anything else?
Example 1
b. Identify the event “red face cards.”
Example 1
b. Identify the event “red face cards.”



     There are 8 red face cards:
              4 hearts
            4 diamonds
Example 1
     b. Identify the event “red face cards.”



          There are 8 red face cards:
                   4 hearts
                 4 diamonds



{J     ,Q ,K ,A ,J ,Q ,K ,A }
Event:
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
   This means that it is a particular occurrence of something
   happening
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
   This means that it is a particular occurrence of something
   happening




Probability that E occurs:
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
   This means that it is a particular occurrence of something
   happening




Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event
   will occur
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
   This means that it is a particular occurrence of something
   happening




Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event
   will occur
   So, E is an event within our sample space S. To do this, we
   need to know the size of our sample space and the size of
   our favorable outcomes.
Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
   This means that it is a particular occurrence of something
   happening




Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event
   will occur
   So, E is an event within our sample space S. To do this, we
   need to know the size of our sample space and the size of
   our favorable outcomes.

                   # of favorable outcomes
          P(E) =
                 # of possible outcomes in S
Fair:
Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another
Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another




Biased:
Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another




Biased: When all outcomes are not equally likely to occur
Example 2
Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
    probability of occurring? What is its probability?
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2   2,3
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2   2,3   2,4
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2   2,3   2,4   2,5
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2   2,3   2,4   2,5   2,6
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1   1,2   1,3   1,4   1,5   1,6
                2,1   2,2   2,3   2,4   2,5   2,6
                3,1   3,2   3,3   3,4   3,5   3,6
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:   1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum:
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7

P(7) =
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7
            # of sum of 7
P(7) =
         # of possible sums
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7
            # of sum of 7     6
P(7) =                      =
         # of possible sums   36
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7
            # of sum of 7     6   1
P(7) =                      =   =
         # of possible sums   36 6
Example 2
 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest
     probability of occurring? What is its probability?

Sample Space:    1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
                 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
                 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
                 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
                 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
                 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Highest Sum: 7
            # of sum of 7     6  1
P(7) =                      =   = = 16 2/3% chance of
         # of possible sums   36 6 rolling a 7
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?

    P(3, 6, 9, or 12)
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                        12
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =
                        36
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                        12   1
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =    =
                        36   3
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                        12   1
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =    =
                        36   3
     P(2, 5, 8, or 11)
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                         12    1
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =      =
                         36    3
                         12 1
     P(2, 5, 8, or 11) =    =
                         36 3
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                         12    1
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =      =
                         36    3
                         12 1
     P(2, 5, 8, or 11) =    =
                         36 3
                       12 1
   P(1, 4, 7, or 10) =   =
                       36 3
Example 3
Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide
who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3,
 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11
 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared,
    person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
                         12    1
    P(3, 6, 9, or 12) =      =
                         36    3            This is fair
                         12 1             since all of the
     P(2, 5, 8, or 11) =    =
                         36 3              probabilities
                                           are the same
                       12 1
   P(1, 4, 7, or 10) =   =
                       36 3
Theorem: Basic Properties
     of Probability
Theorem: Basic Properties
       of Probability
Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and
                P(E) be the probability of E.
Theorem: Basic Properties
       of Probability
Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and
                P(E) be the probability of E.


   0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
Theorem: Basic Properties
       of Probability
Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and
                P(E) be the probability of E.


   0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
   If E = S, then P(E) = 1
Theorem: Basic Properties
       of Probability
Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and
                P(E) be the probability of E.


   0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
   If E = S, then P(E) = 1
   If E = ∅, then P(E) = 0
Example 4
If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the
     probability that a family with four children has all girls?
Example 4
If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the
     probability that a family with four children has all girls?
               Make a list of all possible outcomes

       BBBB           BBBG           BBGB           BGBB

      BBGG           BGGB            GGBB           BGBG

      GBGB           BGGB            GBGG           BGGG

      GGBG           GGGB            GBBB           GGGG
Example 4
If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the
     probability that a family with four children has all girls?
               Make a list of all possible outcomes

       BBBB           BBBG           BBGB           BGBB

      BBGG           BGGB            GGBB           BGBG

      GBGB           BGGB            GBGG           BGGG

      GGBG           GGGB            GBBB           GGGG

One situation out of the sixteen gives 4 girls, so 1/16, or 6.25%
Homework:
Homework:


  p. 431 #1-23

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Notes 7-1

  • 2. Warm-up A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks. Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer. 1. What is the probability that the sock is red? 2. What is the probability that the sock is not white? 3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
  • 3. Warm-up A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks. Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer. 1. What is the probability that the sock is red? r r+b+w 2. What is the probability that the sock is not white? 3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
  • 4. Warm-up A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks. Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer. 1. What is the probability that the sock is red? r r+b+w 2. What is the probability that the sock is not white? r+b r+b+w 3. What is the probability that the sock is green?
  • 5. Warm-up A drawer contains r red socks, b blue socks, and w white socks. Assume that you draw a sock at random from the drawer. 1. What is the probability that the sock is red? r r+b+w 2. What is the probability that the sock is not white? r+b r+b+w 3. What is the probability that the sock is green? 0
  • 7. Probability theory: The study of chance using math
  • 8. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment:
  • 9. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment: A situation with several possible results
  • 10. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment: A situation with several possible results Outcome:
  • 11. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment: A situation with several possible results Outcome: A possible result of an experiment
  • 12. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment: A situation with several possible results Outcome: A possible result of an experiment Sample Space:
  • 13. Probability theory: The study of chance using math Experiment: A situation with several possible results Outcome: A possible result of an experiment Sample Space: The set of the total number of possible outcomes of an experiment
  • 14. Example 1 A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random. a. Give the sample space and describe some of the characteristics of the deck.
  • 15. Example 1 A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random. a. Give the sample space and describe some of the characteristics of the deck. The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards.
  • 16. Example 1 A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random. a. Give the sample space and describe some of the characteristics of the deck. The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards. There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs, 13 spades)
  • 17. Example 1 A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random. a. Give the sample space and describe some of the characteristics of the deck. The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards. There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs, 13 spades) Each suit has 4 face cards (J, Q, K, A) for a total of 16 in the deck
  • 18. Example 1 A standard deck of playing cards is used to draw a card at random. a. Give the sample space and describe some of the characteristics of the deck. The sample space is 52, since there are 52 cards. There are 26 red (13 hearts, 13 diamonds) and 26 black (13 clubs, 13 spades) Each suit has 4 face cards (J, Q, K, A) for a total of 16 in the deck Anything else?
  • 19. Example 1 b. Identify the event “red face cards.”
  • 20. Example 1 b. Identify the event “red face cards.” There are 8 red face cards: 4 hearts 4 diamonds
  • 21. Example 1 b. Identify the event “red face cards.” There are 8 red face cards: 4 hearts 4 diamonds {J ,Q ,K ,A ,J ,Q ,K ,A }
  • 23. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment
  • 24. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment This means that it is a particular occurrence of something happening
  • 25. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment This means that it is a particular occurrence of something happening Probability that E occurs:
  • 26. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment This means that it is a particular occurrence of something happening Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event will occur
  • 27. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment This means that it is a particular occurrence of something happening Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event will occur So, E is an event within our sample space S. To do this, we need to know the size of our sample space and the size of our favorable outcomes.
  • 28. Event: Any subset of the sample space or experiment This means that it is a particular occurrence of something happening Probability that E occurs: The probability that the given event will occur So, E is an event within our sample space S. To do this, we need to know the size of our sample space and the size of our favorable outcomes. # of favorable outcomes P(E) = # of possible outcomes in S
  • 29. Fair:
  • 30. Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another
  • 31. Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another Biased:
  • 32. Fair: When each outcome is as likely as another Biased: When all outcomes are not equally likely to occur
  • 33. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability?
  • 34. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space:
  • 35. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1
  • 36. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2
  • 37. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3
  • 38. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4
  • 39. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5
  • 40. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
  • 41. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1
  • 42. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2
  • 43. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3
  • 44. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4
  • 45. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5
  • 46. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
  • 47. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
  • 48. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
  • 49. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum:
  • 50. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7
  • 51. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7 P(7) =
  • 52. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7 # of sum of 7 P(7) = # of possible sums
  • 53. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7 # of sum of 7 6 P(7) = = # of possible sums 36
  • 54. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7 # of sum of 7 6 1 P(7) = = = # of possible sums 36 6
  • 55. Example 2 Suppose two fair dice are rolled. What sum has the highest probability of occurring? What is its probability? Sample Space: 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 Highest Sum: 7 # of sum of 7 6 1 P(7) = = = = 16 2/3% chance of # of possible sums 36 6 rolling a 7
  • 56. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not?
  • 57. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? P(3, 6, 9, or 12)
  • 58. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = 36
  • 59. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 1 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = = 36 3
  • 60. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 1 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = = 36 3 P(2, 5, 8, or 11)
  • 61. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 1 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = = 36 3 12 1 P(2, 5, 8, or 11) = = 36 3
  • 62. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 1 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = = 36 3 12 1 P(2, 5, 8, or 11) = = 36 3 12 1 P(1, 4, 7, or 10) = = 36 3
  • 63. Example 3 Persons A, B, and C were playing a game and needed to deicide who would go first. Person A suggested tossing two dice. If a 3, 6, 9, or 12 appeared, person A would go first. If a 2, 5, 8, or 11 appeared, person B would go first. If a 1, 4, 7, or 10 appeared, person C would go first. Is this fair? Why or why not? 12 1 P(3, 6, 9, or 12) = = 36 3 This is fair 12 1 since all of the P(2, 5, 8, or 11) = = 36 3 probabilities are the same 12 1 P(1, 4, 7, or 10) = = 36 3
  • 64. Theorem: Basic Properties of Probability
  • 65. Theorem: Basic Properties of Probability Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and P(E) be the probability of E.
  • 66. Theorem: Basic Properties of Probability Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and P(E) be the probability of E. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
  • 67. Theorem: Basic Properties of Probability Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and P(E) be the probability of E. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 If E = S, then P(E) = 1
  • 68. Theorem: Basic Properties of Probability Let S be the sample space associated with an experiment and P(E) be the probability of E. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 If E = S, then P(E) = 1 If E = ∅, then P(E) = 0
  • 69. Example 4 If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the probability that a family with four children has all girls?
  • 70. Example 4 If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the probability that a family with four children has all girls? Make a list of all possible outcomes BBBB BBBG BBGB BGBB BBGG BGGB GGBB BGBG GBGB BGGB GBGG BGGG GGBG GGGB GBBB GGGG
  • 71. Example 4 If births of boys and girls are assumed equally likely, what is the probability that a family with four children has all girls? Make a list of all possible outcomes BBBB BBBG BBGB BGBB BBGG BGGB GGBB BGBG GBGB BGGB GBGG BGGG GGBG GGGB GBBB GGGG One situation out of the sixteen gives 4 girls, so 1/16, or 6.25%
  • 73. Homework: p. 431 #1-23