An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.

1. I T ’ S C H A O S
T U RT L E S
A L L T H E
WAY D OW N
aka teacups vs
the age of murmurations.

2. a l ittl e per s o n a l ba c kg ro u n d
Polak & Prigogine
Vision, leadership, complexity & chaos

3. tea c u ps vs
th e a ge o f mu r mu r a tio n s
Goals, gaps, and actions,
OR
All emergence all the time?

4. t e a c u p s v s …

5. … v s t h e a g e o f m u r m u rat i o n s

6. mu r mu r a tio n s s o a r in g
o n tu r bu l en c e
Complex adaptive systems
Rules creation
Causality interpretation
Responding to chaos

7. …tu r tl es :
ic o n s
o f
in f in ite
reg res s
A well-known scientist (some say it was the
philosopher Bertrand Russell) once gave a public
lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth
orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn,
orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars
called our galaxy.
At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back
of the room got up and said:“What you have told us
is rubbish.The world is really a flat plate supported
on the back of a giant tortoise.”
The scientist gave a superior smile before replying,
“What is the tortoise standing on?”
“You’re very clever, young man, very clever,” said the
old lady.“But it’s turtles all the way down!”
[Stephen Hawking,A Brief History of Time, 1988]
https://breadandcircusnetwork.wordpress.com/2007/06/23/turtles-all-the-way-down/

8. w h a t do es
th e wa r ped pl a te o f th e pres en t
in ter s ec t?
phase spaces of the pasts and futures

9. A N A N C I E N T F U T U R E S C O N E
( t h e ‘ p e r f u m e o f t i m e ’ v e r s i o n , f r o m m y
p h d d i s s e r t a t i o n , 1 9 9 5 )

10. A N E X T E N D E D N E W F U T U R E S C O N E
( J o s e p h V o r o s , “ T h e f u t u r e s c o n e , u s e a n d h i s t o r y , ” 2 0 1 7 )

11. A N E W N E W E R F U T U R E S C O N E
( A n d y H i n e s , “ T h e f u t u r e s c o n e , u s e a n d h i s t o r y , ” 2 0 2 1 )

12. A F A N TA S T I C A L LY N E W F U T U R E S C O N E
( C h r i s t o p h i l o p o u l o s , “ t h e c o n e s o f e v e r y t h i n g , ” 2 0 2 1 )

13. A F A N TA S T I C A L LY N E W F U T U R E S C O N E
( C h r i s t o p h i l o p o u l o s , “ t h e c o n e s o f e v e r y t h i n g , ” 2 0 2 1 )

14. I N T RO D U C I N G …
T H E C H A O S T U RT L E S F U T U R E S C O N E
PASTS PRESENTS FUTURES

15. T HE CHAOS T URT L E S
F UT UR ES CONE
Filled with evolving attracters, and paths of the dance of
life challenged and adapting, facing different patterns of
turbulence, taking different adaptive paths, swirling
forward through pasts across the infinite boundary of the
present (it is always the present) into the infinite
possibilities of gently bounded attractors.

16. PASTS PRESENTS FUTURES

17. I MAG ES, S TOR I ES, S ONG S,
S CENT S, S ENS EMA KI NG
We seek certainty, we value stability – both constrain
Surfing change, adapting to uncertainty, thriving on chaos
Tensegrity and dynamic balance

18. I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R M A K I N G
BA K I N G T E L L I N G S M E L L I N G
TO U C H I N G F U T U R E S
Managing uncertainty may require wallowing in it
The futures are not binary
Fall off the edge of uncertainty’s plane of doxa into chaos
Bang the drums, hit the cymbals, drop stones in the waters,
read the interference patterns, then do it again.

20. MOR E S PECI F I CA L LY MET HODS
Reverse assumptions
Toss stones of emerging change onto the systems of the present
Emerging changes generate futures wheels that ripple through the systems
Futures wheels link into larger evolving systems and emergent stories
Mānoa Scenario Buildimg
Mānoa -basedVisioning: CST Seeds of a Good Anthropocene
Mānoa + Harman Fan Turbulence Path Potentials – steps on the path / vortices

21. MĀNOA S CENA R I O BUI L DI NG
I MPACT CA S CA DES / I NT ER F ER ENCE

22. MĀNOA - BA S ED VI S I ONI NG
CS T G OOD A NT HROPOCE NE

23. MĀNOA + HA R MA N FA N
T UR BUL E NCE PAT H POT E NT I A L S
FUTURES OF
THE UNIVERSITY
Sooner Later
Sooner
Later
Business
Satellite
Continuous
Education
Exchange
Bookless
Access without exam
No University
Multi-cultural
Experience
Degrees
Student led
Corporate Owned
Split
Teaching/Research
Multi mode
No
calendar
No Bowl
All have access
Mentor
Star Prof
Intel Inside
Special
Interest
Group
Holodeck
Grasshopper
other
NOW

24. MĀNOA + HA R MA N FA N
T UR BUL E NCE PAT H POT E NT I A L S
Sooner Later
Sooner
Later
Satellite
Bookless
All have access
No calendar
NOW
Scenario:
The tailor-made on-line university
This scenario assumes that we move from our
current university towards more distant learning – a
‘satellite university’ that slowly replaces all hardcopy
learning. Working with digital media makes it easier
to let students study at their own pace, leading to a
‘no-calendar’ university. Since universities will
become widely accessible with marginal extra costs
and higher marginal outputs per dollar invested, the
government will finally provide access to all
prospective students with repayable grants, which
will be deducted from their income over the
professional life of the graduates.

26. MĀNOA + HA R MA N FA N
T UR BUL E NCE PAT H POT E NT I A L S

27. c o n t r a d i c t
e v e r y t h i n g.
r e m e m b e r
p l a u s i b i l i t y i s
m a l a d a p t i v e .
d i v i n e p a n i c
o p e n s n e w p a t h s
… a n d l i f e
f l o u r i s h e s o n t h e
b o u n d a r y w h e r e
o r d e r m e e t s
c h a o s .
EKWENSU – a trickster spirit
embodying chaos and change.

28. m o v e b e y o n d u n c e r t a i n t y a n d e m b r a c e c h a o s -
g e t t o k n o w y o u r l o c a l t r i c k s t e r s p i r i t .

29. T HA NK YOU.
Dr.Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures and Jigsaw Foresight
@wendyinfutures | wendy@infinitefutures.com
Senior Fellow, Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies
Fellow,World Futures Studies Federation