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Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic Introduction


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Basic introduction to working with past timelines and the Three Horizons Framework, as presented at the 'Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind' Three Horizons / Futures Thinking Bootcamp, 18-19 September 2013, by Wendy Schultz

Published in: Business, Technology

Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic Introduction

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. 2 • History as a launch pad for foresight: • Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. • Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. • Layering history of different sectors: • Analysing different patterns of change. • Identifying different speeds of change. TIMELINES and the FUTURE
  3. 3. 3 1© H C H L V 2 0 0 8 Th e s ix la y e rs o f c iv ilis a tio n N a t u r e G o v e r n a n c e C u lt u r e S o c ia l c h a n g e S o u r c e : S t e w a r t B r a n d /F r e e m a n D y s o n , a d a p t e d In f r a s t r u c t u r e B u s in e s s F a s h io n a n d m e d ia Faster Slower Regulators Accelerators TIMELINE LAYERS: Speed Differentials
  4. 4. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. local; few cases; emerging issues 3rd horizon Pockets of future found In present Time “present” “future” Number of cases; degree of public awareness global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers scientists; artists; radicals; mystics specialists’ journals and websites laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media institutions and government system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts HORIZON SCANNING
  5. 5.  Beginning of research, not the end;  “N of 1”;  Unearths contradictions;  Subjective, not objective;  “Unscientific” sources;  Systems-based;  Unfamiliar concepts. HORIZON SCANNING • Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change. • Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. • ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources. • High quality scanning: – identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, – confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and – has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
  6. 6.  Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes.  3 Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes.  Uses:  Challenge obsolescing assumptions;  Spot emerging constraints / opportunities;  Get beyond incrementalism. SCANNING + the 3 HORIZONS framework
  7. 7. Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cyclesThree Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry The 3 HORIZONS framework
  8. 8. • Perspective: long-term time horizon • Need: technology road-mapping that reflects generations of technological innovation • Researchers: Bill Sharpe, Tony Hodgson, Andrew Curry • Subsequent publications and articles: – IIS Technology Forward Look; Sharpe and Hodgson – “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy;” Curry and Hodgson, Journal of Futures Studies – Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, 2013. 8 ORIGINS of 3 HORIZONS framework: UK Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) Project
  9. 9. Three Horizons: Functional differencesThree Horizons: Functional differences B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry Horizon 1: Managers Horizon 1: Managers Dominance of worldview Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Status quo, momentum, inertia Status quo, momentum, inertia Incremental adaptation & innovation Incremental adaptation & innovation Emerging change & visions Emerging change & visions Pockets of the future found in the present
  10. 10. Horizon ONE 10 • Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions and designs • H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’ • Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges • Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource MANAGERIAL
  11. 11. Horizon THREE 11 • Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present • Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’ • Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions • Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision VISIONARY
  12. 12. Horizon TWO 12 • Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3 • Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence • Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past • Dominated by feelings of opportunity, engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made ENTREPRENEURIAL
  13. 13. Horizons Insights 13 “Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.”