Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic Introduction


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Basic introduction to working with past timelines and the Three Horizons Framework, as presented at the 'Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind' Three Horizons / Futures Thinking Bootcamp, 18-19 September 2013, by Wendy Schultz

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  • Laurie – the name of this series of events came from when Gill & I were talking about the changes happening in the world and the effect on clients ’ business – and how difficult it was for successful organisations to take on board the extent of these changes. ? Use the neurobiolgy reference I sent you? Refer to Mike Johnstone ’ s work So we are delighted that so many of our friends have joined us today to start to blow away the cobwebs. And that our event today met the stringent requirements of the Royal Society – as a serious contribution to learning . The SAMI team is led by Gill Ringland, Dr Wendy Schultz and Dr Chris Yapp, and I will hand you over to Gill to brief you on the Agenda
  • Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum Tony Hodgson, Decision Integrity Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
  • Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic Introduction

    1. 1. 1
    2. 2. 2 • History as a launch pad for foresight: • Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. • Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. • Layering history of different sectors: • Analysing different patterns of change. • Identifying different speeds of change. TIMELINES and the FUTURE
    3. 3. 3 1© H C H L V 2 0 0 8 Th e s ix la y e rs o f c iv ilis a tio n N a t u r e G o v e r n a n c e C u lt u r e S o c ia l c h a n g e S o u r c e : S t e w a r t B r a n d /F r e e m a n D y s o n , a d a p t e d In f r a s t r u c t u r e B u s in e s s F a s h io n a n d m e d ia Faster Slower Regulators Accelerators TIMELINE LAYERS: Speed Differentials
    4. 4. Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. local; few cases; emerging issues 3rd horizon Pockets of future found In present Time “present” “future” Number of cases; degree of public awareness global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers scientists; artists; radicals; mystics specialists’ journals and websites laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media institutions and government system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts HORIZON SCANNING
    5. 5.  Beginning of research, not the end;  “N of 1”;  Unearths contradictions;  Subjective, not objective;  “Unscientific” sources;  Systems-based;  Unfamiliar concepts. HORIZON SCANNING • Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change. • Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. • ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources. • High quality scanning: – identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, – confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and – has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
    6. 6.  Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes.  3 Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes.  Uses:  Challenge obsolescing assumptions;  Spot emerging constraints / opportunities;  Get beyond incrementalism. SCANNING + the 3 HORIZONS framework
    7. 7. Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cyclesThree Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry The 3 HORIZONS framework
    8. 8. • Perspective: long-term time horizon • Need: technology road-mapping that reflects generations of technological innovation • Researchers: Bill Sharpe, Tony Hodgson, Andrew Curry • Subsequent publications and articles: – IIS Technology Forward Look; Sharpe and Hodgson – “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy;” Curry and Hodgson, Journal of Futures Studies – Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, 2013. 8 ORIGINS of 3 HORIZONS framework: UK Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) Project
    9. 9. Three Horizons: Functional differencesThree Horizons: Functional differences B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry Horizon 1: Managers Horizon 1: Managers Dominance of worldview Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Status quo, momentum, inertia Status quo, momentum, inertia Incremental adaptation & innovation Incremental adaptation & innovation Emerging change & visions Emerging change & visions Pockets of the future found in the present
    10. 10. Horizon ONE 10 • Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions and designs • H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’ • Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges • Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource MANAGERIAL
    11. 11. Horizon THREE 11 • Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present • Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’ • Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions • Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision VISIONARY
    12. 12. Horizon TWO 12 • Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3 • Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence • Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past • Dominated by feelings of opportunity, engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made ENTREPRENEURIAL
    13. 13. Horizons Insights 13 “Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.”