Describes a participatory process to help experts teach an algorithm to forecast possible futures for jobs and skills in the USA and the UK. Began with scanning data and asked participants to locate those emerging changes onto a map of a generic city and discuss the various impacts. This was followed by scoring how those changes would affect increase or decrease of certain jobs and skills in future labour markets; the scores were input into the algorithm to teach it. The process was iterative.
Previous work has analysed the intersection between social constructions of skill and women’s exclusion from many elite scientific jobs. However, this work has largely failed to specify the processes by which the reworked gender composition of high-tech workforces affects intra-firm and interfirm learning and innovation processes in the region. Crucially, rather than
simply describing the gendered sociorelational properties of these regions, we need to specify how these social relations affect female workers’ abilities both to access and use new sources of information and expertise on behalf of their respective firms, relative to their male colleagues. These
socioeconomic phenomena form the focus of this chapter.
Growing Pains - The Auckland Capacity for Growth StudySafe Software
Auckland Council’s growth projections indicate that the city needs to find development capacity for 400,000 new dwellings by 2041. To better understand the quantity and location of development capacity in their region the Council commissioned the ‘Capacity for Growth Study’. Through this study this presentation explores how FME was used to generate a number of innovative spatial data modelling algorithms to measure the vacant, redevelopment and infill development capacity across residential, business and rural-residential land use designations.
Presentation delivered as part of the 2018 Australian National Science Week for the workshop Weaving Technology Into The Fabric of the Classroom - Teachers Professional Development Workshop at Bond University on Friday 17 August 2018.
Previous work has analysed the intersection between social constructions of skill and women’s exclusion from many elite scientific jobs. However, this work has largely failed to specify the processes by which the reworked gender composition of high-tech workforces affects intra-firm and interfirm learning and innovation processes in the region. Crucially, rather than
simply describing the gendered sociorelational properties of these regions, we need to specify how these social relations affect female workers’ abilities both to access and use new sources of information and expertise on behalf of their respective firms, relative to their male colleagues. These
socioeconomic phenomena form the focus of this chapter.
Growing Pains - The Auckland Capacity for Growth StudySafe Software
Auckland Council’s growth projections indicate that the city needs to find development capacity for 400,000 new dwellings by 2041. To better understand the quantity and location of development capacity in their region the Council commissioned the ‘Capacity for Growth Study’. Through this study this presentation explores how FME was used to generate a number of innovative spatial data modelling algorithms to measure the vacant, redevelopment and infill development capacity across residential, business and rural-residential land use designations.
Presentation delivered as part of the 2018 Australian National Science Week for the workshop Weaving Technology Into The Fabric of the Classroom - Teachers Professional Development Workshop at Bond University on Friday 17 August 2018.
Download Buildling Tomorrow: www.psfk.com/report/building-tomorrow
PSFK Labs partnered with Architizer to launch Building Tomorrow: Trends Driving the Future of Design. This report provides an overview of future trends in architecture, as well as the societal forces moving them forward drawn from an analysis of Architizer’s global library of innovative designs and PSFK’s expertise in industries like travel, retail, and home living.
It is important to note, this report is not necessarily a study in architecture: it is a guide for any creative professional who is building today – whether that in the physical, media or digital landscape. The themes highlighted within Building Tomorrow can be used to inspire the cities of tomorrow, but the trends can be leveraged to build the next generation of products, services and experiences.
The report includes:
- 3 global drivers impacting design
- 9 Key Trends building tomorrow
- Implications for Retail, Product, and Digital Experience
- Perspectives from industry experts
- 4 Pillars for Creating Experiences
If you are interested in seeing a presentation of this report or would like to understand how PSFK can help your team ideate new possibilities for your brand, contact us at sales@psfk.com
Ver. 2 | Published September 2015
All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of PSFK Labs.
Imagining the Future through Social Media as a Tool for Social Innovation (E...Mario Guillo
F212.org is a virtual think tank of university students interested in sharing ideas on how to face main future challenges. It describes the results of a comparative study about the images of the future found among young students from Haaga Helia University of Applied Science (Finland) Tamkang University (Taiwan); and University of Alicante (Spain).
Fast Future - The Shape of Jobs to Come - Full ReportRohit Talwar
Foresight study exploring key jobs and professions that could emerge by 2030 as a result of advances in science and technology. Examines critical driving forces in society and a timeline of key science and technology developments out to 2030.
It is time we recognize that learning, technology, and workforce development are experiencing a global convergence. In today’s technology-driven world, knowledge and information are growing exponentially. As globalization and advancements in technology reshape society, they also generate an accelerated pace of change that is outpacing humans’ ability to adapt. This requires new approaches to how we upskill and reskill learners to better meet the demands of today and the future.
In today’s rapidly changing world, organizations and societies are struggling with the
complexity and uncertainties of emerging issues and challenges in the current dynamic
environment (Conklin, 2005; Snowden & Boone, 2007). Designers have a strategic role in
helping organizations to deal with this complexity and uncertainty by developing artefacts
that help experiencing possible futures (Maessen, van Houten, & van der Lugt, 2018).
Preliminary findings from our research showed that people with some help readily engage in
exploring far futures, yet have difficulties afterwards to distill next steps for the near future
while resisting the dominant collective pull to the comfort zone of current paradigms and
daily routines (Maessen, 2019). We therefore developed a workshop format, containing a
set of interventions and tools to guide people to engage in exploring far away possible
futures and link these back to anticipating actions in the present.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory engagement during the Design Develop Transform event in Antwerp, that combined multiple interactive futures methods: Manoa scenario building, the Verge General Practice Framework for Futures, the Postcards exercise, and Lego Serious Play. Participants explored possible long-range futures for museums and art.
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
Work is universal. But, how, why, where and when we work has never been so open to individual interpretation. The certainties of the past have been replaced by ambiguity, questions and the steady hum of technology. Now, in a groundbreaking research project covering 21 global companies and more than 200 executives, Lynda Gratton is making sense of the future of work. In this exclusive article she provides a preview of the real world of 21st century work.
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Download Buildling Tomorrow: www.psfk.com/report/building-tomorrow
PSFK Labs partnered with Architizer to launch Building Tomorrow: Trends Driving the Future of Design. This report provides an overview of future trends in architecture, as well as the societal forces moving them forward drawn from an analysis of Architizer’s global library of innovative designs and PSFK’s expertise in industries like travel, retail, and home living.
It is important to note, this report is not necessarily a study in architecture: it is a guide for any creative professional who is building today – whether that in the physical, media or digital landscape. The themes highlighted within Building Tomorrow can be used to inspire the cities of tomorrow, but the trends can be leveraged to build the next generation of products, services and experiences.
The report includes:
- 3 global drivers impacting design
- 9 Key Trends building tomorrow
- Implications for Retail, Product, and Digital Experience
- Perspectives from industry experts
- 4 Pillars for Creating Experiences
If you are interested in seeing a presentation of this report or would like to understand how PSFK can help your team ideate new possibilities for your brand, contact us at sales@psfk.com
Ver. 2 | Published September 2015
All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of PSFK Labs.
Imagining the Future through Social Media as a Tool for Social Innovation (E...Mario Guillo
F212.org is a virtual think tank of university students interested in sharing ideas on how to face main future challenges. It describes the results of a comparative study about the images of the future found among young students from Haaga Helia University of Applied Science (Finland) Tamkang University (Taiwan); and University of Alicante (Spain).
Fast Future - The Shape of Jobs to Come - Full ReportRohit Talwar
Foresight study exploring key jobs and professions that could emerge by 2030 as a result of advances in science and technology. Examines critical driving forces in society and a timeline of key science and technology developments out to 2030.
It is time we recognize that learning, technology, and workforce development are experiencing a global convergence. In today’s technology-driven world, knowledge and information are growing exponentially. As globalization and advancements in technology reshape society, they also generate an accelerated pace of change that is outpacing humans’ ability to adapt. This requires new approaches to how we upskill and reskill learners to better meet the demands of today and the future.
In today’s rapidly changing world, organizations and societies are struggling with the
complexity and uncertainties of emerging issues and challenges in the current dynamic
environment (Conklin, 2005; Snowden & Boone, 2007). Designers have a strategic role in
helping organizations to deal with this complexity and uncertainty by developing artefacts
that help experiencing possible futures (Maessen, van Houten, & van der Lugt, 2018).
Preliminary findings from our research showed that people with some help readily engage in
exploring far futures, yet have difficulties afterwards to distill next steps for the near future
while resisting the dominant collective pull to the comfort zone of current paradigms and
daily routines (Maessen, 2019). We therefore developed a workshop format, containing a
set of interventions and tools to guide people to engage in exploring far away possible
futures and link these back to anticipating actions in the present.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory engagement during the Design Develop Transform event in Antwerp, that combined multiple interactive futures methods: Manoa scenario building, the Verge General Practice Framework for Futures, the Postcards exercise, and Lego Serious Play. Participants explored possible long-range futures for museums and art.
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
Work is universal. But, how, why, where and when we work has never been so open to individual interpretation. The certainties of the past have been replaced by ambiguity, questions and the steady hum of technology. Now, in a groundbreaking research project covering 21 global companies and more than 200 executives, Lynda Gratton is making sense of the future of work. In this exclusive article she provides a preview of the real world of 21st century work.
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking pas...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
A brief history and description of visioning tools.Wendy Schultz
This starts with the little building a vision mosaic interactive exercise, and ends with the shared joys problem-to-vision exercise. What the slidedeck doesn't note is that we posted the vision detail cards from the first exercise, and clustered them thematically to let a more coherent structure for the vision emerge.
A fun think piece on possible futures for AI and its potential range of relationships with humanity - written in response to a request by editors at Critical Muslim to provide an AI-focussed version of their regular feature, "The List." Thanks to Zia Sardar.
Tick TOCS Tick TOCS - channeling change through theory into scenariosWendy Schultz
Describes an original scenario-building method used to explore futures for education, based on combining scanning output with specific social change theories. The social change theories provided logical narrative arcs to evolve different futures from starting points in the present.
Crazy Futures: Why Plausibility is MaladaptiveWendy Schultz
Explores how images of the future are perceived and categorized, and how the discipline itself uses 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion - and why that may be a mistake.
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's FanWendy Schultz
Describing a distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures, using the Futurescaper software platform as a way to generate Harman's Fan scenario explorations.
A provocation for the Association of Professional Futurists' Virtual Gathering, 15 September 2017 exploring what is populism in an age when extraordinary is ordinary.
An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
"Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind" BootcampWendy Schultz
A futures research and foresight methods workshop by SAMI Consulting, Laurie Young, and Infinite Futures - focus on patterns of change over time, using past timelines, Three Horizons, and the Gartner Hype Cycle, and age cohort analysis; CLA; Verge; and Futures Wheels.
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Collecting stories about future uses of blockchain technologyWendy Schultz
This slidedeck briefly introduces blockchain technology and then requests readers to share a scenario - a story of a possible future - of possible uses for blockchain tech in the future. The stories can be shared on Sensemaker, and the slidedeck gives a step-by-step demo of how that would work. The deck then lists possible future users as prompts for your imaginative exploration of how blockchain technology might affect people in all walks of life and sectors.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Melding machine learning and participatory foresight
1. S E Q U O I A C L U B
APF Compass | January 2017 13
Occupations, Tasks, Skills:
what might we need most in
the future?
What do you want to be
when you grow up?Are you
thinking about choosing a new career?
Worried about the jobs available for your
children, and what skills they might need
to succeed in the future? Pearson, the
world’s largest education company, has
sponsored Nesta UK and the University of
Oxford in forecasting future jobs
availability and skills requirements.
The resulting project, “Employment in
2030: Skills, Competencies, and the
Implications for Learning,” explored
which occupations may disappear in the
future, and which may be in greater
demand. Robots and smart things
everywhere are supplanting human labour
—how many occupations are actually in
jeopardy?
Official government occupational lists
from the UK and the USA provided the
starting point for the project. Each
occupation’s description includes a list of
typical tasks and the skills they require.
Consequently, forecasting the potential for
growth or decline of a specific occupation
also indicated the potential for growth or
decline in demand for specific skills: will
we still need chefs in the future?
Or will nimble robots assemble raw
ingredients into gourmet meals in
gleaming restaurant kitchens? Does that
only mean that restaurants no longer
require line cooks, and that the chef’s key
tasks—of designing the dishes and
curating the meals, calculating the
ingredients required and their most
efficient use—and related skills will still be
in high demand?
Understanding what skills future
occupations will require helps educators
understand what the critical educational
needs of the future might be. What do
people really need to know to thrive in the
transformed economy of the future?
How can experts work
together to help train an
algorithm about occupational
futures?
Pearson, Nesta and the University of
Oxford set out to explore these questions
with a unique futures approach: a dialogue
between human experts and an active
learning algorithm. The array of methods
available to foresight researchers and
forecasters splits across Snow’s two
cultures: the highly data-driven and
quantitative vs the data-informed,
intuitive and qualitative. This project
sought consciously to bridge the two.
It’s a tricky bridge to build. Nesta
invited world class thinkers to discuss
emerging changes and their potential
effects on occupations to one workshop in
Boston, and another in London. I should
also declare an interest at this point: I was
commissioned to design and facilitate the
workshops that elicited the expert opinion
that informed the algorithms.
Melding machine learning and
pa icipatory foresight
by Wendy Schultz
Helping experts think as futurists. The workshop trends card. Photo, Wendy Schultz.
2. S E Q U O I A C L U B
14
APF Compass | January 2017
The workshop attendees were looking
forward to a stimulating conversation and
discussion about transformations in jobs
and labour. The active learning algorithm
that we needed to feed, on the other hand,
simply wanted those experts to rate
possible growth or decline in 30
occupations—not a very interactive task.
Our goal was to design a process that
supported wide-ranging thinking about
change, stimulated discussions across the
expert perspectives in the room—and
paused periodically to inform the
algorithm, via a simple web-based input
form.
How did we do it? The most critical part
of the process design was explaining
clearly what we were asking participants
to do, and why: the introductions to the
project goals (understanding what skills
the future will require), the overview of
machine learning (introducing them to the
algorithm they’d be training), and their
role in sharing data and contributing
insights. Second, while many of the
experts had deep understanding of one
sector of change, we wanted everyone to
have a shared baseline of changes across
multiple sectors of changes that might
affect the future of occupations. Thus a
key component of the project was
extensive research into critical trends, and
summarising them as a trends deck for
discussion.
The workshop live
What, then, did we actually do on the day?
Each workshop began with a round of
introductions that included—as an
icebreaker and a way to frame discussions
—the question, “When you were ten, what
did you want to be when you grew up?” It
turns out that even economists, social
scientists, and technology experts wanted
to be astronauts or soccer stars when they
were ten!
The project team then galloped rather
rapidly through the extensive map of
trends and emerging issues affecting
economic activity and potentially
transforming occupations over the next
twenty years. After listening to a data-
dense presentation for thirty minutes,
participants deserved an opportunity to
process the information and its
implications, and to discuss the trends
amongst themselves. We wanted them to
think about how those impacts might
affect all the different activities in the
economic landscape. We also wanted to
switch thinking modes from listening
(verbal) to mapping impacts and
interconnections (visual).
To spur that conversation and encourage
that thinking mode, we printed out a
table-sized cartoon of a city landscape
(office buildings, retail space, government
buildings, arts and leisure, manufacturing
facilities, transport infrastructure,
agriculture, suburbs, etc.), and a deck
featuring each of the key trends and
emerging changes, summarized in a
phrase. Participants worked in pairs to
cluster the trends they thought reinforced
and amplified each other, and then placed
each change or change cluster on the map
where they thought it would have the
greatest impacts.
If they thought the change affected more
than one economic activity, they could use
coloured tape to connect their chosen
change to other activities. We then asked
them to summarise by suggesting two
Mapping the future onto the city. Photo, Wendy Schultz.
3. S E Q U O I A C L U B
APF Compass | January 2017 15
occupations that, as a result, would
increase in future, and two that would
decrease.
After stretching their mental muscles
with that exercise, we moved on to
labelling specific occupations with
directional forecasts—“will this
occupation increase or decrease in the
next twenty years?”—an activity that was
assisted by fact sheets that included a
definition of the occupation, its specified
tasks and required skills, and historical
trend data summarizing its growth in the
economy. We instantly displayed the
forecast output to the group, so they could
discuss the range of answers, explore the
different assumptions each of them used
to arrive at their forecasts, and potentially
amend their initial judgments. Participants
could refer to the trend deck for change
‘evidence’ to support their assumptions
and forecasts. To provide the algorithm
with its required base of thirty occupation
evaluations, we repeated this process two
more times.
Giving the participants discussion space
during the occupation forecast labelling
gave them an opportunity for
unconstrained and exploratory thinking, in
contrast to the very constrained mental
process of assigning ‘increase or decrease’
labels to 30 different occupations. But it
didn’t provide space for another obvious
potential output from combining
emerging changes, forecasts of impacts on
current occupations, and human creativity:
brainstorming entirely novel occupations,
or radical transformations in current
occupations. To capture those creative
insights, participants ended the day by
pairing up again and scrawling their wild
and divergent extrapolations of the
occupations of the future on a wall mural
with the key change clusters already
posted.
Emergent forecasting…
watch this space
The research team has mapped the
interesting changes, the experts have
discussed the possible impacts, and the
algorithm is computing. We are looking
forward to the output: forecasts of
potential future growth—and decline—in
specific occupations in the UK and the
USA and, more importantly, in the range
of critical tasks and skills that may be
required of the next generation of
workers.
Web pundits trumpet the erosion of
employment due to increasing
roboticisation and the emerging ecology of
‘smart everything’ (cities, factories, cars,
toasters, you name it). Nesta has just
demonstrated at least one instance where
human intuition and machine learning can
work hand in hand. Maybe that’s the best
future we could hope for. ◀︎
The jobs of the future, maybe. Photo, Wendy Schultz.
Wendy Schultz is a futurist based in
Oxford, England.
There is more information and project
reports at Nesta UK.