DAAG 2018: Emotions and Decision Analysis

E M O T I O N S A N D D A
S O M I K R A H A
S E N I O R A S S O C I AT E , U L U V E N T U R E S
D A A G 2 0 1 8

The Conversation that got me into DARH: You cannot judge a
decision from the
outcome
Me:
(After class)
Me: Prof, this is what
the Indian Philosophers
have said for a couple
thousand years
RH: Yes, but they
haven’t applied this in
finance, and here we’ve
worked out the details.

VA L U E
Cultural norms (e.g. integrity)
Objective functions for tradeoffs (e.g. time/money)
What’s important to you?

T R U T H . C L A R I T Y. F R E E D O M .

– R A B I N D R A N AT H TA G O R E
“The small truth has words that are clear.
The great truth has great silence.”

E N F O R C E M E N T O F T H E L AW
V S .
S U D P S : VA L U E S - D R I V E N
S TA N F O R D P O L I C E VA L U E S :
P U B L I C S A F E T Y A N D E D U C AT I O N

M Y W O R K O N VA L U E - M A P P I N G
Robert S. Hartman
1910-1973
Founder of Formal Axiology Prof. Ron Howard
Prot. Hartman taught in MIT
as a visiting professor one summer
Value Diagrams
Value-Mapping
Raha, S. (2010). Achieving clarity on value (Doctoral
dissertation, Stanford University).
“Are Two Lives Saved Twice as Good as One?”
https://tinyurl.com/axiology

Robert S. Hartman
1910-1973
Founder of Formal Axiology
I N S E PA R A B L E F R O M S E L F
THE EXPERIENCE of INTRINSIC VALUE

A different kind of listening
“As an observer, the researcher notes that when
the subject discovered the intrinsic value, he
immediately went silent for some seconds.
When he spoke next, the researcher got the
impression that he felt he was finally being
understood. This assenting silence has been
experienced by the researcher with other
subjects as well, and might be a clue that we are
touching on ground that is indeed of an intrinsic
nature to the subject.”
– P128, Achieving Clarity on Value

U N U S U A L T H I N G S
S TA R T E D H A P P E N I N G
P H Y S I C A L S E N S AT I O N S I N M Y
O W N B O D Y
S U B J E C T S F O U N D I T D E E P LY
M E A N I N G F U L
“ T H E M O S T VA L U A B L E PA RT WA S
VA L U E - M A P P I N G ! ”

R E F : H T T P : / /
W W W. S C H O L L E I P N . C O M /
T H E - 4 - T R A I T S - W H I C H -
D R I V E - S C H O L L E - I P N S -
PA C K A G I N G - S O L U T I O N S /

S T R AT E G Y- G E N E R AT I N G VA L U E S
Dr. David Matheson
CEO, SmartOrg Inc.
“ L I S T E N I N G F O R S T R AT E G Y-
G E N E R AT I N G VA L U E S I S N O W A
PA RT O F M Y S TA N D A R D
C O N S U LT I N G T O O L K I T ”
“Only Somik can do this.”

Q U E S T I O N S F O R M Y S E L F
• Why are the mapper and the mappee so inspired by
these conversations?
• Is the connection real? What’s happening to the
mapper (me) physically? I believe that the mappee is
also feeling it in their bodies — can that be validated?
Is it all just a big mental game I am playing to believe
what I want to believe?
• How can I get myself and a subject into one of those MRI machines
to see what’s going on?

S O , I N 2 0 1 7 , I S TA R T E D L O O K I N G I N T O
N E U R O S C I E N C E …
B U T F I R S T…

O V E R 4 D E C A D E S O F B E H AV I O R A L E C O N O M I C S H A S S H O W N T H AT
W E M A K E M I S TA K E S I N D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G B E C A U S E O F B I A S E S
Amos Tversky
1937-1996
Daniel Kahneman
Nobel laureate
Heuristics & Biases (1974)
43,953 citations
International
best-seller

217 decision-making biases
53 social biases
54 memory biases
Ref: Wikipedia

T H E I M P L I C I T B O T T O M L I N E
• A good decision is one where you feel balanced and
achieve equanimity
• The real value of Decision Analysis is that it helps you
cross stormy seas and get to equanimity
• “Don’t trust your emotions when making decisions;
they will misguide you”

T H I S I S A N
I N C O M P L E T E P I C T U R E

I T I S M I S S I N G F O U R D E C A D E S
O F N E U R O S C I E N C E R E S E A R C H !

B U T F I R S T, L E T ’ S G O
E V E N E A R L I E R , T O 1 8 4 8

H O W T O E X P L O D E A R O C K I N 1 8 4 8
G U N P O W D E R
F U S E
S A N D
TA M P W I T H A N I R O N R O D
L I G H T F U S E

G A G E R E C O V E R E D
P H Y S I C A L LY

– A N T O N I O D A M A S I O , P 1 7 , D E S C A R T E ’ S E R R O R
For a long time, most everybody, John Harlow
(Gage’s doctor) included, believed, “the portion of
the brain traversed, was, for several reasons, the
best fitted of any part of the cerebral substance to
sustain the injury.” … Nothing could be further
from the truth

– A N T O N I O D A M A S I O , P 1 7 , D E S C A R T E ’ S E R R O R
For a long time, most everybody, John Harlow
(Gage’s doctor) included, believed, “the portion of
the brain traversed, was, for several reasons, the
best fitted of any part of the cerebral substance to
sustain the injury.” … Nothing could be further
from the truth
Antonio Damasio
U N I V E R S I T Y P R O F E S S O R ,
D O R N S I F E P R O F E S S O R O F N E U R O S C I E N C E , P S Y C H O L O G Y & P H I L O S O P H Y
D I R E C T O R , B R A I N A N D C R E AT I V I T Y I N S T I T U T E
U N I V E R S I T Y O F S O U T H E R N C A L I F O R N I A L O S A N G E L E S
PhotoCredit:LuisBarra

T H E C H A N G E S C O N T R A S T E D
S H A R P LY W I T H H I S PA S T
P E R S O N A L I T Y

H E H A D A H A R D T I M E M A K I N G
D E C I S I O N S T H AT W E R E G O O D F O R
H I M

A M O D E R N P H I N E A S G A G E : E L L I O T T
• Meningioma, pushing against brain tissue
• Surgically removed tumor, as also frontal lobe tissue
that was damaged
• Cognitive abilities intact
• Total change of personality: became terrible in
executive function (decision-making) and could not
hold jobs, made decisions that bankrupted him and
caused two divorces
• Finally social security payments were denied due to
refusal by the government to accept his disability
… Antonio Damasio in Descarte’s Error

U N A B L E T O
D E C I D E P R O P E R LY
( E S P E C I A L LY P E R S O N A L &
S O C I A L M AT T E R S )
C O G N I T I V E
A B I L I T Y
M E M O RY
( S H O RT A N D
L O N G - T E R M )
A R I T H M E T I C
A B I L I T Y
N E W L A N G U A G E
A B I L I T Y
A LT E R N AT I V E -
G E N E R AT I O N
A B I L I T Y
PA S S E D S P E C I A L
T E S T S F O R F R O N TA L -
L O B E D Y S F U N C T I O N
AT T E N T I O N
& W O R K I N G
M E M O RY
N O M O R E S T R O N G
E M O T I O N S
C A N R E A S O N
T H R O U G H P R O B L E M S , J U S T
N O T M A K E A D E C I S I O N
“At the end of one session, after he had produced an
abundant quantity of options for action, all of which
were valid and implementable, Elliot smiled,
apparently satisfied with his rich imagination, but
added: ‘And after all this, I still wouldn’t know what to
do!’”
Ref: Descarte’s Error, Ch 3, “A Modern Phineas Gage”
Elliott
“ T O K N O W B U T N O T T O F E E L ”

W H AT N E U R O B I O L O G Y T E L L S U S
A B O U T E M O T I O N A N D R E A S O N
• Seemingly normal reason can be disturbed by subtle
biases rooted in emotion
• Reduction in emotion may constitute an equally
important source of irrational behavior.

W E N E E D T O R E V I S E O U R O L D - S C H O O L
U N D E R S TA N D I N G O F T H E H U M A N B R A I N
Old school view: “The old brain core handles basic biological regulation [of
emotions] down in the basement, while up above the neocortex deliberates
with wisdom and subtlety. Upstairs in the cortex there is reason and
willpower, while downstairs in the subcortex there is emotion and all that
weak, fleshy stuff.”
New view: “The apparatus of rationality, traditionally presumed to be
neocortical, does not seem to work without that of biological regulation [of
emotions], traditionally presumed to be subcortical. Nature appears to have
built the apparatus of rationality not just on top of the apparatus of biological
regulation, but also from it and with it.”
… Antonio Damasio in Descarte’s Error, P128

D E C L I N E O F R AT I O N A L I T Y I S A C C O M PA N I E D
B Y A D I M I N U T I O N O F F E E L I N G
“Developmental sociopaths are well known to all of us from the daily
news. … The threshold at which their emotions kick in, when they do, is so
high that they appear unflappable, and are, from their self reports,
unfeeling and uncaring. They are the very picture of the cool head we
were told to keep in order to do the right thing. In cold blood, and to
everybody’s obvious disadvantage including their own, sociopaths often
repeat their crimes. They are in fact yet another example of a pathological
state in which a decline in rationality is accompanied by diminution or
absence of feeling.”

T H E S O M AT I C M A R K E R
H Y P O T H E S I S
Damasio, A. R. (1996). The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible
functions of the prefrontal cortex. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B, 351(1346),
1413-1420. 2 6 5 9
C I TAT I O N S

H Y P O T H E S I S
Damasio, A. R. (1996). The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible
functions of the prefrontal cortex. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B, 351(1346),
1413-1420. 2 6 5 9
C I TAT I O N S
Bechara, A., & Damasio, A. R. (2005). The somatic marker hypothesis: A
neural theory of economic decision. Games and economic behavior, 52(2),
336-372. 1 6 1 0
C I TAT I O N S

Ventromedial Prefrontal
Cortex

H Y P O T H E S I S
P R O S P E C T G U T R E A C T I O N
Response to the image of a bad outcome
that comes to mind

H Y P O T H E S I S
S O M A Greek for “body”
that comes to mind

H Y P O T H E S I S
Somatic: Occurring in the theater of the body
that comes to mind

H Y P O T H E S I S
that comes to mind
Marker: The reaction marks an image

H Y P O T H E S I S
that comes to mind
Somatic Marker arises BEFORE you make a decision; still room for DA

H Y P O T H E S I S
that comes to mind
Somatic Marker arises BEFORE you make a decision; still room for DA
S O M AT I C M A R K E R I S
A N A U T O M AT E D
S I G N A L T H AT
“ D R A S T I C A L LY
R E D U C E S Y O U R
O P T I O N S ”

H Y P O T H E S I S
that comes to mind
S O M AT I C M A R K E R I S
A N A U T O M AT E D
S I G N A L T H AT
“ D R A S T I C A L LY
R E D U C E S Y O U R
O P T I O N S ”
“In short, somatic markers are a special instance of feelings
generated from secondary emotions. Those emotions and
feelings have been connected, by learning, to predicted future
outcomes of certain scenarios.”
… Antonio Damasio in Descarte’s Error, P174

T H E S O M AT I C M A R K E R H Y P O T H E S I S I S
T E S TA B L E
• As the marker happens in the body, skin conductance
response can be used to reliably detect it
• The Iowa Gambling Task 
https://www.psytoolkit.org/experiment-library/experiment_igt.html
A B C D
e.g. Gain: $100 reward
Loss: -$150
e.g. Gain: $50
Loss: $0
Starting Pot
$2000
High immediate gain,
larger future loss
Lower immediate gain,
Smaller future loss

R E S U LT S
• Normals learned to switch to the safer decks over time
• VMPFC patients did not! They always chose myopically.
• Both VMPFC patients and normals registered SCR
when getting rewards or penalties; the VMPFC patients
just couldn’t use that for learning
• Amygdala patients did not really SCR when getting
rewards or penalties

B O T T O M L I N E : E M O T I O N S A R E T H E
A P PA R AT U S F O R L E A R N I N G
They help us develop an internal predictive model
Two Possibilities:
C O G N I T I V E E S T I M AT E
A U T O M AT I C A L LY C O N N E C T S
W I T H S O M AT I C S TAT E
C O V E RT, N O N - C O N S C I O U S
E S T I M AT E P R E C E D E S A N Y
C O G N I T I V E P R O C E S S O N T O P I C

Q U E S T I O N S F O R M Y S E L F
• Why are the mapper and the mappee so inspired by
these conversations?
• Is the connection real? What’s happening to the
mapper (me) physically? I believe that the mappee is
also feeling it in their bodies — can that be validated?
Is it all just a big mental game I am playing to believe
what I want to believe?
• How can I get myself and a subject into one of those MRI machines
to see what’s going on?
L E T ’ S T RY S K I N - C O N D U C TA N C E R E S P O N S E ( S C R ) F I R S T !
C A N T H I S B E S E E N I N S C R ?

Mindfield eSense - under $100
Connects to your phone
Export data to CSV

Knowledge(H
EAD)Skill(H
ABIT)
Creativity (HEART)
Emotional
Energy
Unstoppable
EnergyIntellectual
Energy
YOU
Listening for feelings along three vectors

Knowledge(H
EAD)Skill(H
ABIT)
Creativity (HEART)
Emotional
Energy
Unstoppable
EnergyIntellectual
Energy
MARK
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
POETRY
EMPOWER THE
POWERLESS

Knowledge(H
EAD)Skill(H
ABIT)
Creativity (HEART)
Emotional
Energy
Unstoppable
EnergyIntellectual
Energy
MARK
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
POETRY
EMPOWER THE
POWERLESS
C AV E AT
P E R S O N A L E X P E R I M E N T
N E E D T O R E P E AT R E L I A B LY
G R E AT R E S E A R C H T O P I C

W H AT A R E T H E
I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R D A ?

T H E I M P L I C I T B O T T O M L I N E
• A good decision is one where you feel balanced and
achieve equanimity
• The real value of Decision Analysis is that it helps you
cross stormy seas and get to equanimity
• “Don’t trust your emotions when making decisions;
they will misguide you”
I S B A L A N C E / P E A C E / E Q U A N I M I T Y A
F E E L I N G O R A T H O U G H T ?
N O T S O FA S T !

F E E L I N G S C A N A L S O G U I D E U S !
What if… “the purpose of Decision Analysis is to take complexity off the
table so we can focus on who we want to be?”
What if… it only becomes possible to decide when we can FEEL, and we
can’t FEEL our way through when facing complex decisions?

Which countries to
enter for
conservation work
using Forest Carbon
Credits?

Which countries to
enter for
conservation work
using Forest Carbon
Credits?
Ask: Who do you
want to be?

Which countries to
enter for
conservation work
using Forest Carbon
Credits?
Ask: Who do you
want to be?
Answer: Not sure.

Which countries to
enter for
conservation work
using Forest Carbon
Credits?
Ask: Who do you
want to be?
Answer: Not sure.
No problem - DA to
the rescue!

1. Country E
2. Country A
3. Country B
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country C
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country C
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country C
1. Country D
2. Country B
3. Country A
Linda
Mike
1. Country E
2. Country B
3. Country A
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country C
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
Brad
1. Country B
2. Country A
3. Country E
1. Country B
2. Country A
3. Country D
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country D
1. Country B
2. Country A
3. Country E
1. Country B
2. Country A
3. Country D
Jenny
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
1. Country E
2. Country A
3. Country B
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country E
1. Country A
2. Country B
3. Country C

RESULT: CLARITY ON VALUE POSITION THAT FITS US

REPEATED THIS AT:
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY

REPEATED THIS AT:
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
Gamechanger approach: “The analysis takes complexity off the table so
you can focus on who you want to be!”
—OR— You can still follow the path you want; the analysis helps you do
so with your eyes open, with authenticity.
RESULTS: Team developed an intuition (feeling) for which projects were
really valuable and voluntarily offered some of their own projects for
termination!

Not just non-profits, in for-profit R&D Portfolio
Management, this became the hallmark of
SmartOrg’s approach.

At Ulu Ventures, DA is what allows us to respect the
entrepreneur when passing

E V E N D E C I S I O N Q U A L I T Y
L O O K S D I F F E R E N T !

See
https://tinyurl.com/dqcourse

- M A R K N E P O , T H E B O O K O F A WA K E N I N G ( F E B 2 9 )
“Who’s to say the effort to be real isn’t the
beginning of wings?”
Q & A O R D E M O
- M A R K N E P O , T H E B O O K O F A WA K E N I N G ( M A R 1 )
“Live deep enough and there is only one
direction.”

O N E B A S I S O F I N Q U I R I N G I N T O
C R E AT I V E J O Y F R O M T H E U PA N I S H A D S
• The ancient Indians made a remarkably strong assertion (in the Taittiriya
Upanishad 2.9.1) that there was no way to understand our most authentic selves
with our usual intellectual faculty. They asserted in poetic fashion:  
 
यतो वाचो िन वतर्न्ते अप्राप्य मनसा सह:|  
 
Speech and mind turn back after finding this (realm of the creative self) to be
unattainable. They are quite right, and things would be rather hopeless if
speech and mind were the only faculty at our disposal. The same poem gives us
a way forward in the very next line.  
 
आनन्दं ब्रहमणो िवद्वान|  
 
The knower knows the creative self through the feeling of joy. Let’s repeat that:
The creative self can be known through our feeling of joy.
Ref: https://medium.com/invaluable/counting-meaningful-purpose-with-the-three-goddess-braid-f2c5262fe84

V I PA S S A N A M O D E L M AY B E P O I N T I N G T O S O M AT I C
M A R K E R S
• From the Vipassana technique of meditation, we find four key phenomena that explain the working of the
mind: consciousness, perception, sensation and reaction. The first phenomenon, consciousness, works “to
cognize, simply to know, without differentiating. A sound comes into contact with the ear, and the
(consciousness) notes only the fact that a sound has come.”[19] The second phenomenon of the mind,
perception, is about recognizing something from one’s past experience as good or bad. For instance, a sound
may consist of words of praise or words of abuse. The third phenomenon of the mind, sensation, is what
arises in response to the recognition. For something that was perceived to be pleasing, pleasant
sensations arise throughout the body, and similarly for unpleasant perceptions, unpleasant sensations
arise throughout the body. These sensations are felt by the mind. The fourth phenomenon of the mind is
to pull out the reaction from a database of past reactions to such sensations. At this point, the tendency of
the mind is to apply the reaction, and deepen the habit-pattern as the applied reaction gets stored in the
mind for future access. Moreover, the reaction creates its own stimulus and the cycle repeats, multiplying the
perception and thereby the sensation. However, the teachers of meditation urge the student to discover a
space between the habitual reaction that arises as an informational element and the response that is a
decision. Instead of reacting as a response, the student is urged to stay equanimous, and develop equanimity
as an antidote to all habits. As the habit-conditioning dissolves, the cycle breaks immediately, and the
physical experience also starts to change. Instead of multiplying and feeding on itself, the effect of stimuli
becomes short-lived, and the action taken is less and less a reaction and more and more a thoughtful action.
In this sense, the experience of positive and negative stimuli becomes more of a decision.
Raha, S. (2010). Achieving clarity on value (Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University).

"Normal subjects, generated SCRs when they received reward or punishment. Most important, as they became
experienced with the task, they began to generate SCRs prior to the selection of any cards, i.e., during the time when
they were pondering from which deck to choose (Fig. 4).
Bechara, A., & Damasio, A. R. (2005). The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision.
Games and economic behavior, 52(2), 336-372.
R/P: Reward/Punishment

“These anticipatory SCRs were more pronounced before
picking a card from the risky decks A and B, when compared
to the safe decks C and D. The VM patients generated SCRs
to reward or punishment, albeit the responses were slightly
lower than those from normal controls, but the amygdala
patients completely failed to generate SCRs in reaction to
reward or punishment. Furthermore, the VM as well as the
amygdala patients entirely failed to generate SCRs before
picking a card (Fig. 5).”
Bechara, A., & Damasio, A. R. (2005). The somatic
marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic
decision. Games and economic behavior, 52(2),
336-372.
M Y O P I A F O R F U T U R E

Values-BASED
DECISION-
MAKING
Don’t just stand
There, do
something
SOMIK
RAHA
SPIRIT
BREAKING
THROUGH
construct

DAAG 2018: Emotions and Decision Analysis

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DAAG 2018: Emotions and Decision Analysis