Thinking [Better] About         the Future:A Hands-on Approach to Applying           Foresight           Andy Hines       ...
Where I‟m Coming From
Why Foresight?•   Uncover new opportunities•   Detect threats•   Craft strategy•   Guide policy•   Understand emerging cus...
Approach
Framing
Framing: What Are We Looking For? If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra        ...
1.1 Know Your Audience                 Fence-sitters                Bridge Builders                                 Pragma...
1.2 Map the Landscape                        Work                       Spaces              Work                          ...
EXAMPLE: The Trend Universe                           is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking        ...
1.3 Set Your Time Horizon     What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?Computer Chips = 18 months     ...
Degree of Stretch    A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative     new area. How is your organization likely t...
In Sum…..             Framing                                          Scanning     1.1 Know your audience                ...
Scanning
2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things”Happening?              Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hin...
Issue Emergence: Find Opportunities Before“ They” Do        Much Influence                              Litigated         ...
2.1 Look for Changes “Outside”                  “Outside”                 EconomicTechnological                   Environm...
Example: Brands Capitalizing on External Changes           Authenticity               Sharing            Co-Creation      ...
Finding Scanning Hits on the Web   • Search Engines, e.g. Google   • Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon   • Alerts,...
2.2 Talk to People                Good open-ended questions• If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?• If...
2.3 Explore Unfamiliar Territory
Discussion: Getting Ideas    Where do you get your best ideas?   Where do you typically come up with your most     creativ...
2.4 Capture the Insights                   A complicated form for students….             …a simpler one for time-pressed o...
2.5 Create a Trend Inventory                                                           Virtual communities growing        ...
In Sum…..                                                               Scanning            Framing                       ...
Forecasting
Forecasting: Where Are the AttractiveSpaces?           The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn                       ...
The Cone of PlausibilityThe Future ismany, not one.                             Alternative                               ...
3.1 Cluster Trends into Drivers
3.2 Identify Key Uncertainties                                                         Future of Downtowns                ...
3.3 Challenge Assumptions       Original Assumption:                 Alternative Assumption  “This is the way the industry...
3.4 Look for Potential Discontinuities             Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense      More and more of the value...
Example: IBM Global Innovation OutlookInsights from academics, industry experts, and               business leadersDefine ...
3.5 Create Scenarios• A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or  that tells the story about...
3.5 Create Scenarios                   The Long Boom                                 The Soft Path               In the Lo...
Sample Scenario: Communi-city         http://vimeo.com/171           23084
In Sum…            Framing                                         Scanning    1.1 Know your audience                     ...
Visioning Planning   Acting
4. Visioning, Planning ,& Acting If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra         ...
4.1Implications                            Recruiting for                                                                B...
Alternative: Implications for DifferentStakeholders               The Industry                                        Your...
4.2 Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue  Start          Stop           Continue
4.3 Institutionalize: Push, Pull, Build• Push: Spread the word to new potential clients   – Site Visits, Intranet sites, B...
Benefits of ForesightActivity          BenefitsFRAMING (22%)     1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9...
Recommended Books•    Hines, Bishop, Thinking About the Future•    Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View•    Glenn, Jerome ...
Contact Info           Andy Hines      U of Houston Futures StudiesLecturer/Executive-in-Residenceahines@uh.edu832 367 557...
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Thinking [Better] About the Future

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A hands-on approach to applying foresight by Andy Hines, Principal at Hinesite and Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence in Futures Studies at University of Houston.

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Thinking [Better] About the Future

  1. 1. Thinking [Better] About the Future:A Hands-on Approach to Applying Foresight Andy Hines IABC Houston May 12, 2011
  2. 2. Where I‟m Coming From
  3. 3. Why Foresight?• Uncover new opportunities• Detect threats• Craft strategy• Guide policy• Understand emerging customer needs• Explore new offering, markets, products, or services
  4. 4. Approach
  5. 5. Framing
  6. 6. Framing: What Are We Looking For? If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Polling: Degree of “stretch”
  7. 7. 1.1 Know Your Audience Fence-sitters Bridge Builders Pragmatist Don’t Get It Get It Ideologies Laggards True Believers
  8. 8. 1.2 Map the Landscape Work Spaces Work Workers Tools Knowledge Work Work Models
  9. 9. EXAMPLE: The Trend Universe is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking about trends influencing growth or other aspects of the business http://growth.intranet.dow.com/TrendsSection/TrendsHomePg.htm the broad trends in the world at large that plant the seeds of longer-term business opportunities Contextual Trends Demographic Environmental House Food & Home Biotech MaterialsTechnological Chemical Transportation Political Energy Industry Infotech Health Leisure & Entertainment Market Trends Economic Social the trends that are manifested in markets that point to nearer-term business opportunities For more info on trends orhow to use them in ideation contact MORE TRENDS RESOURCES
  10. 10. 1.3 Set Your Time Horizon What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?Computer Chips = 18 months Cars = 3-5 years Oil Platforms = 30+ years
  11. 11. Degree of Stretch A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative new area. How is your organization likely to respond? Select where your organization falls on this continuum of less to more sophisticated responses 1. SAFE 3. PROVOCATIVE Degree of “stretch”Smaller Payoff Bigger Payoff Less Risk Higher Risk 2. IN BETWEEN
  12. 12. In Sum….. Framing Scanning 1.1 Know your audience 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 2.2 Talk to people 1.3 Set your time horizon 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  13. 13. Scanning
  14. 14. 2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things”Happening? Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hines 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory The Kyoto: "These Zen-like slip-ons make me feel light on my feet andlighthearted. Great for peaceful walks to and from yoga sessions." Oprah
  15. 15. Issue Emergence: Find Opportunities Before“ They” Do Much Influence Litigated Little Effort Legislated Framed Event Emerging Little Influence Wildcard Much Effort
  16. 16. 2.1 Look for Changes “Outside” “Outside” EconomicTechnological Environmental Industry Organization Social Political
  17. 17. Example: Brands Capitalizing on External Changes Authenticity Sharing Co-Creation Spirituality Experiences Sustainability Self-Expression
  18. 18. Finding Scanning Hits on the Web • Search Engines, e.g. Google • Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon • Alerts, e.g., Google Alerts • Target specific sites, e.g., Population Reference Bureau • Bookmarking sites, e.g., Delicious, Magnolia • Specialized software/data mining, e.g., Porter’s Technology Opportunity Analysis • Databases, e.g., Lexis-Nexis • 3rd Party Services, e.g., Social Technologies
  19. 19. 2.2 Talk to People Good open-ended questions• If I could answer any question for you, what would it be?• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____, what would it be?• If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ , what would it be?• What does the _______ need to forget?• What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ on the horizon?• What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______?• What are the obstacles to progress in the ________?• What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end) Source: Global Business Network, Developing & Using Scenarios, www.gbn.com
  20. 20. 2.3 Explore Unfamiliar Territory
  21. 21. Discussion: Getting Ideas Where do you get your best ideas? Where do you typically come up with your most creative ideas….wherever that might be?
  22. 22. 2.4 Capture the Insights A complicated form for students…. …a simpler one for time-pressed organizationsCATEGORY INDICATORS BRIEF DESCRIPTIONTechnology Neuropharmaceuticals developing Understanding of brain/mind, and how to manipulate them, is growing.
  23. 23. 2.5 Create a Trend Inventory Virtual communities growing Co-working collectives “Hotelling” Work Gen Y wants to be in charge SpacesTelepresence rooms like “being there” Work Reverse brain drain Tools Knowledge Workers Work Cloud-based tools Free agent nation Work Transparency Models Core-contractor structure “Open innovation” Crowdsourcing
  24. 24. In Sum….. Scanning Framing 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 1.1 Know your audience 2.2 Talk to people1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  25. 25. Forecasting
  26. 26. Forecasting: Where Are the AttractiveSpaces? The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build opportunity spaces 3.2.1 Identify key uncertainties 3.2.2 Challenge assumptions 3.2.3 Look for potential discontinuities 3.2.4 Create scenarios 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  27. 27. The Cone of PlausibilityThe Future ismany, not one. Alternative Futures Preferred Implications Future Alternative Futures Present PastSource: Charles Taylor, Army War College
  28. 28. 3.1 Cluster Trends into Drivers
  29. 29. 3.2 Identify Key Uncertainties Future of Downtowns Hi Transit: Personal vs. Mass GranolaDonuts Snacking Bars Vehicles: Electric vs. Gas(Tasty) Importance (Healthy) Environmental: Lip Service vs. Deep GreenPersonal Settlement Patterns: Dense vs. Sprawl Urban Transit Mass Uncertainty Hi
  30. 30. 3.3 Challenge Assumptions Original Assumption: Alternative Assumption “This is the way the industry works.” “What if we…..” Libraries should be quiet What if we made libraries fun places where people eat, drink, and talk, as well as read and study?
  31. 31. 3.4 Look for Potential Discontinuities Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. Selling by the pound makes less sense, if you can sell the sense! Interface Flooring Systems TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce. TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter. TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and faster. TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to reflect socially desirable goals, such as environmental quality. TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy." TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use. TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging. Hydrocarbon Trend to Value Added Cleaning Perchloroethylene Cleaning Services Solvents c. 1930’s c. 1950’s c. 2001 • nonflammable • Safetainer • flammable • recycle • good vapor properties • dangerous • provide expertise • neighborhood cleaners
  32. 32. Example: IBM Global Innovation OutlookInsights from academics, industry experts, and business leadersDefine and research key trends in innovation on a global scale.
  33. 33. 3.5 Create Scenarios• A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or that tells the story about how such a state might come about. – The former are referred to as end state (or even day in the life scenarios); the latter are chain of events scenarios (or future histories).
  34. 34. 3.5 Create Scenarios The Long Boom The Soft Path In the Long Boom world… In the Soft Path world… •25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better •Enoughness: consumers rethink consumption environment and their lives in general •Current recession just a speed bump •Recognition of limits •Driven by five great waves of technology: •Sustainability a fact of life •(1) PCs •Grassroots-driven change •(2) telecomm • (3) biotech • (4) nanotech •(5) alternative energySource: Hines; Innovaro (www.innovaro.com)
  35. 35. Sample Scenario: Communi-city http://vimeo.com/171 23084
  36. 36. In Sum… Framing Scanning 1.1 Know your audience 2.1 Look for changes “outside”1.2 Map the innovation landscape 2.2 Talk to people 1.3 Set your time horizon 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
  37. 37. Visioning Planning Acting
  38. 38. 4. Visioning, Planning ,& Acting If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra 4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel 4.2 Actions via Start, Stop & Continue 4.3 Institutionalizing
  39. 39. 4.1Implications Recruiting for Built-in smart Plug & Play „Docking” Time-based int‟l experience infrastructure Infrastructurevia Success-base, Project-based Revisit % of profitsFutures traditional practices contracts Integrating New payWheel smartness practices? Annual contracts? Intelligence Rethink hiring Lands & firing Need a Where? policy Need for Transparency Augmented Customization Workers Inter- Explaining generation Fairness “special” conflict Future Impossible treatment of Work Going beyond paycheck What motivates Nearsourcing Training? workforce Strengthen Local ties What fits w/ cultures Negotiate w/ multiple jurisdictions
  40. 40. Alternative: Implications for DifferentStakeholders The Industry Your organization Biz Idea Biz Idea Implication Implication _______ _______ Challenge ___________ Implication Implication _______ _______Biz Idea Biz Idea
  41. 41. 4.2 Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue Start Stop Continue
  42. 42. 4.3 Institutionalize: Push, Pull, Build• Push: Spread the word to new potential clients – Site Visits, Intranet sites, Business TV, Podcasts, Webcasts, Newsletters, Brown- Bag lunches, Futures Rooms , Sample Ideation Workshops• Pull: “Deliver the goods” and create positive “word-of-mouth” – Success breeds success – Craft a one-pager to concisely describe how you do it – Set up appointments with other functions in need of filling their innovation pipeline• Build: Grow your support network – Cultivate communities-of-practice – Developing your own training course
  43. 43. Benefits of ForesightActivity BenefitsFRAMING (22%) 1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%) 2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%) 3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models (6%)SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing frameworks (5%) 5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%)FORECASTING 6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%)(22%) 7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%)VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%)PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable rehearsing for the future (7%)ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%) 11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%) 12. Building a learning organization (2%)
  44. 44. Recommended Books• Hines, Bishop, Thinking About the Future• Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View• Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM)• Coates, Mahaffie & Hines, 2025• Wendel Bell, Foundations of FS (but only vol 1)• Ed Cornish, Futuring• Richard Slaughter, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies• Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future• Alvin Toffler, Future Shock or The Third Wave• Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future or Global Mind Change• Bernard deJouvenel, Art of Conjecture• Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises: How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington Institute,1997.• Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005.• Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update• William Gibson, Neuromancer, Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Vernor Vinge, Across Real Time
  45. 45. Contact Info Andy Hines U of Houston Futures StudiesLecturer/Executive-in-Residenceahines@uh.edu832 367 5575www.andyhinesight.com

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