Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain Scenarios
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A presentation to the University of Houston spring futures gathering 2016 on using Sensemaker to crowdsource mini-scenarios about potential future uses for blockchain technologies.
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Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain Scenarios
- 1. Stitching Scenarios from Distributed Fragments Crowdsourcing Blockchain Futures http://bit.ly/1TYiuhH Dr Wendy L Schultz 16 April 2016
- 2. So. Blockchain. What’s that all about?
- 4. William Mougayer, “Understanding the blockchain”, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/understanding-the-blockchain
- 5. So. Blockchain. What’s that all about? John Lanchester, “When Bitcoin Grows Up”, http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/john-lanchester/when-bitcoin-grows-up
- 6. Scenarios – uses + creation methods Narratives Causal Layered Analysis Scenario Archetypes Organisational Story-telling Axes Deductive Scenarios: Uncertainties as Logics, Change-Theory-Driven Tables Scenario Parameter Matrix FAR Futures Table Morphological Analysis Manoa Scenarios Systems-based Connectors
- 7. Competition: Ambient Images of Futures Set of all images of the future: impossible, possible, probable, preferable dystopias visions scenarios: downside scenarios: PTE (present trends extended) scenarios: upside utopias nightmares Images of the future are present in religions, political ideologies, art, movies, television, novels, stories, advertising – and research
- 13. Business scenario use rarely takes competition for the narrative space into account
- 14. Business scenario use rarely takes competition for the narrative space into account
- 15. Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures” + Natural England
- 16. Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures” + Natural England
- 17. THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK Sharpe, Hodgson, Curry Waves of Ambient Futures
- 18. How to collect ambient futures?
- 19. How to collect ambient futures?
- 20. Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building
- 21. Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building
- 22. Examples: IRAHSS transport, Grexit, blockchain
- 28. Blockchain futures narratives collector – the invitation to share on Sensemaker
- 30. Side benefit – operationalising Gartner’s ‘hype cycle’ RTs/scenarios > 1 = hype RTs/scenarios < 1 = increasing maturity
- 31. So I’ll do it my own damn self.
- 38. … but all y’all are my only hope. Contribute a mini-scenario yourself: http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh or get Sensemaker Collector (red) app on Google or IOS app store, use activity code “blockchain”
- 39. Blockchain future applications – generating possibilities with Verge Verge General Practice Framework for Futures Studies and Foresight
- 40. How might any of these people use blockchain? DEFINE Opinion leaders in the news; scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revolutionaires RELATE Businesses; unions; NGOs; international agencies; government agencies; families CONNECT News sources; media organizations; celebrities; artists, musicians, poets, designers; IT experts CREATE Investors; manufacturers; farmers; educators; inventors CONSUME Retail shoppers; food and restaurant patrons; house owners; movie and book fans DESTROY Garbage collectors, recyclers; vandals, terrorists; grey market and black market participants
- 41. Enter your stories now! http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh
- 42. Keep those stories coming – add as many as you like, as ideas about the evolving future of blockchain emerge. Article on ‘blockchain futures’ via Sensemaker Collector by 30 April 2016 any questions? wendy@infinitefutures.com
Editor's Notes
- This presents several approaches to extracting, filtering, and sensemaking ‘ambient futures’ – images of the future, scenarios that already exist in organisations and throughout society. It begins by considering both the range of scenario building techniques, and also the diversity of images of the future in which we are immersed.
- Bishop, Hines, Collins – over 23 different scenario or futures image creation methods, with more being invented daily – this presents a rough grouping of methods by their various process design ‘shapes’ – narratives, connectivity-focussed, tabular, and deductive/axes-based. Scenarios are often discussed as instruments for improving strategic perspectives – indeed, that seems to be an overarching focus of ‘scenario planning’ – but they are also excellent vehicles to enhance innovation and product research – as our systems-based scenarios for Pepsico and the Industrial Research Institute demonstrated, and also to enhance other futures and foresight activities – eg, as precursors to visioning, or as exploratory in assessing the relative costs and benefits of impacts of changes identified in horizon scanning.
- The previous slide focussed on deliberately created scenarios – possible futures as artifacts of art – or science. But those constructed futures are constructed, communicated, and used in a social and cultural context that already contains images of the future. Human narrative space is littered with images of futures: dystopian – nightmare – downside through exploratory to upside to visionary + utopian. Religions proselytise a future; politicians and political ideologies promise a future; artists inspire and provoke with futures; advertising seduces with futures. Researchers and consultants creating futures for strategic or other purposes are up against stiff competition.
- Example image of the future
- Example image of the future
- Example image of the future
- Example image of the future
- Example image of the future
- Example image of the future – San Fransokyo, “Big Hero 6” ‘Strategic scenarios' or 'scenario planning' rarely takes into account the competing images in the narrative space - much less makes use of them. Yet in VUCA environments, human consciousness searches for patterns, may latch on to existing 'past futures' - e.g., 'used futures'
- Example image of the future – San Fransokyo, “Big Hero 6” ‘Strategic scenarios' or 'scenario planning' rarely takes into account the competing images in the narrative space - much less makes use of them. Yet in VUCA environments, human consciousness searches for patterns, may latch on to existing 'past futures' - e.g., 'used futures'
- Manoa School (Hawai’i Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawai’i) approach to alternative futures uses a technique called “incasting” that asks people to explore four archetypes of the future. Originally six archetypes, these were drawn from content analysis and sensemaking of existing images of the future in scholarly works and popular culture. More recently, a 2009 study I did for UK’s Natural England identified a very similar set of archetypes via content analysis (graphic) of existing scenarios relevant to environmental policy.
- Manoa School (Hawai’i Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawai’i) approach to alternative futures uses a technique called “incasting” that asks people to explore four archetypes of the future. Originally six archetypes, these were drawn from content analysis and sensemaking of existing images of the future in scholarly works and popular culture. More recently, a 2009 study I did for UK’s Natural England identified a very similar set of archetypes via content analysis (graphic) of existing scenarios relevant to environmental policy.
- Third Horizon suggests that data about emerging images of the future - whether cautionary, exploratory, or visionary - are data points on the 'third horizon' of change. If people’s ideas, goals, visions, fears – expressed as possible futures – affect their perspectives and behaviours, then they represent a critical subset of horizon scanning data – as do their proposed responses to emerging change.
- Sense maker - 'distributed human cognition' - narrative collection
- Sense maker - 'distributed human cognition' - narrative collection
- Quilting mini-narratives into scenarios - Raford's dissertation
- Quilting mini-narratives into scenarios - Raford's dissertation
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Further examples - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Blockchain – the invitation
- Blockchain – the invitation
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments - Raford's dissertation - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments – Sensemaker Crowdsensor as a scanning database as well as a crowdsourced scanning tool.
- Crowdsourcing scenario fragments - Raford's dissertation - IRAHSS, especially GREXIT - now blockchain: stay tuned