A description and analysis of common scenario archetypes in use at the Hawai'i Research Center for Futures Studies from 1980-1995.

1. Scenario Archetypes
A Map of
Basic Structures
Wendy Schultz
Outline for paper
July 2021

2. 09/11/2021
History of Incasting
and the Scenario Archetypes
See…
• Dator, J. “Alternative Futures at the Manoa School,” Journal of
Futures Studies, November 2009, 14(2): 1-18
• Bezold, C. “Jim Dator’s Alternative Futures and the Path to IAF’s
Aspirational Futures,” Journal of Futures Studies, November
2009, 14(2): 123-134
In memory of practice: the Hawaii Research Center for Futures
Studies and the Center for Development Studies at the University
of Hawaii used archetype incasting widely in different projects. The
research associates and graduate researchers expanded the pool of
archetypes to include six, differentiated across 6 characteristics…

3. 09/11/2021
Scenario Archetypes
• Business as Usual: Continued Growth
– Nightmare: Economic Collapse
• Environmental Sustainability
– Nightmare: Ecological Collapse
• Ideological Exclusionism
– Nightmare: Anarchy (collapse of rule of law)
• High Tech Transformation
– Nightmare: Infrastructure/System Collapse
• Spiritual Transcendence
– Nightmare: Anomic Collapse

4. 09/11/2021
Distinguishing Characteristics
1. Politico-economic structure;
2. Aspect of life promoted;
3. Goals of the game;
4. Strategy for exploring reality;
5. Root descriptor for reality;
6. Nightmare: opponent scenario;
…and concept of change.

5. 09/11/2021
• capitalist
• promotes the
material
• win-lose
• reductionist
• mechanistic
• NIGHTMARE:
Economic
Collapse
Concept of change: technological
innovation and progress should
be rapid and encouraged, as
technological change drives
economic growth. Social and
political change should be
incremental and rule (law)
based, to promote stability.
Environmental change: what’s
that you say? the environment
can change?
Business as Usual:
Continued Growth

6. 09/11/2021
• communitarian
• promotes the
natural
• win-win
• holistic
• organic
• NIGHTMARE:
Ecological
Collapse
Concept of change: technological
change should be incremental and
assessed, to promote ecological
stability. Environmental change
should occur unaffected by human
activities. Social, political, and
economic change should be
incremental and driven by the goal
of increased harmony with nature,
with political and economic
infrastructures adapting to, and
supporting, that goal.
Environmental
Sustainability

7. 09/11/2021
• hierarchic
• promotes the rule
• win-exclude
• limiting
• disciplined
• NIGHTMARE:
Anarchy --
Collapse of Rule
of Law
Concept of change:
distrust change! -- it
should only occur
incrementally, well
controlled by rule of
law, to promote the
stability of belief.
Ideological
Exclusionism

8. 09/11/2021
• anarchic
• promotes the outer
journey
• win-evolve
• transformational
• invented
• NIGHTMARE:
Infrastructure/
System Collapse
Concept of change: change
ROCKS! – thrive on change,
get addicted to change, in
all sectors, at all speeds, to
promote further
transformation faster!
Technological innovations
will completely transform
social, economic, and
political structures, and
destroy the very notion of
the ”natural,” while helping
to control negative impacts.
High Tech
Transformation

9. 09/11/2021
• collegially selfless
• promotes the
inner journey
• win-enlighten
• transcendent
• noetic
• NIGHTMARE:
Anomic Collapse
Concept of change: change in
the social sphere should
support social advances and
noetic evolution. Change in
technology and the economy
should be incremental and
slow, to de-emphasize the
material. Change in the
political sphere should be
incremental but innovative,
retaining stability but
promoting transcendent
social values and networks.
Spiritual
Transcendence

10. 09/11/2021
Mapping the Archetypes:
concepts of change by STEEP
society
technology
economy
environment
politics
Ideological Exclusionism
Business as Usual
Environmental Sustainability
Spiritual Transcendence
High Technology Transformation

11. 09/11/2021
Incasting…
exploring alternative futures
• You wake up to find yourself in a future 25 years hence…
• Do NOT question how this future came to be; instead, ask
yourself how you will adapt and thrive in these conditions.
• What are the following like in this future?
– Commuting to work
– Health care
– Leisure activities [what do people do for fun?]
– Education [what skills or substantive knowledge do people need
most, how is that passed from one generation to the next?]
– Crimes [what would be illegal given the values and perspectives of
this future?]

12. 09/11/2021
Report results as news headlines...
• ... in the news media appropriate to this future [and tell
us how news gets disseminated…].
• Imagine what political controversies, international events, critical
issues, awards, celebrations, sports events, and other
newsworthy items might occur in this future. Take details to
their logical, if extreme, conclusions: some traditional activities,
offices, organizations, and lifestyles may disappear entirely in
your scenario; others may be transformed, existing in this future
in an entirely new form; and entirely new offices, services,
businesses, schools, and activities may arise. The only rule is
consistency with the internal logic and conditions of the scenario.
• Be prepared to present your headlines and cartoons to the group
as a whole.

13. 09/11/2021
The Future, Inc.
• The extreme outgrowth of global mass media/ consumption
trends: new consumer products moved from inventor to
production to distribution to global market saturation in a year!
• The US government gave up and privatized many services to cut
federal spending and reduce the deficit.
• The Fortune 500 offer so many amenities in their benefit
packages that corporate citizenship is more important than
country of origin -- the world’s important boundaries and
cultures are now those of the major corporations more than of
countries.
• The rich and the poor now have better access to goods, but the
true elite are those who command corporations’ executive
privileges.
• Environmental preservation occurs only where it profits.

14. 09/11/2021
Ecological Age…
• Undeniable environmental changes in the early 00’s shifted
values away from materialism, towards personal responsibility
for the environment and the welfare of future generations; some
communities punish the misuse of resources.
• “Eco-preneurs” developed ecologically friendly technologies and
extremely sophisticated resource use and recycling systems --
with crossover innovations among genetic engineering, the
biosciences, and materials science, plastic now grows on trees
[shrubs, actually].
• Lifestyles downsize: from nations to bioregions; from cities to
towns; from 3 SUV’s per family to one shared among three
families.
• Environmental restoration and bio-recreation of extinct species.
• Less materialism; more emphasis on learning and the arts.

15. 09/11/2021
Discipline and Duty...
• Conservative neo-fundamentalists have garnered power,
emphasizing family and community over individualism; non-
nationals and “socially unacceptable” groups are expelled or
repressed.
• People focus on traditional mores and modes of life, with social
roles as well as behaviors and beliefs more constrained; in the
US, the explosive growth of the Internet and the Web slowed
dramatically as society’s censors scrutinized content for
suitability -- art and other expressive media are cramped as
well.
• While few environmental-management restrictions are placed on
business, the US economy slows because of the restrictions on
creativity.

16. 09/11/2021
High Tech Decentralization...
• Human inventiveness triumphs! Clean, abundant energy and
advances in robotics, nanotechnology, and material science
give people very precise, low waste control of our resources
and environments.
• Genetic engineering gives us precise control over our bodies --
and our definitions of who and what we are.
• High-definition, multi-sense holography and virtual reality let
us create virtual worlds of our inner visions -- leading to new
art forms AND a new form of autism.
• Data and telecoms networks freed information globally, and
local and regional direct democracies are the most common
form of governance.
• Respect for the environment just part of rational resource
management.

17. 09/11/2021
World Crash
• As the global capitalist system attempted to lurch into the
information age, e-stock volatility destabilized world stock
markets, resulting in the crash of ‘08.
• Terrorism, regional wars and border skirmishes, and
environmental crises exacerbated the disintegration of the
interconnected, globalized economy.
• Production and, more importantly, distribution of needed raw
materials, goods and services collapsed in many areas.
• Fear of looting and piracy generated armed isolationism in many
countries, and in many communities within countries.
• By 2023, political units fragment, creating new city-states, urban
tribal systems, and roving bands of refugee nomads on both land
and sea.

18. 09/11/2021
Application results:
finding opportunities everywhere
• Classics:
– U.S. Girl Scouts
– Credit Unions?
• Recent Adaptations:
– community risk assessment
– public health leadership