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An Introduction to "Verge"
- 1. An Introduction to“Verge” A general practice framework for futures work Wolfson College, Oxford, UK 10/4/2013 Sponsored by the Association of Professional Futurists
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- 3. AN INTRODUCTION TOVERGE Six Domains of Human Experience
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- 5. Stepping Outside theSTEEP Box Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
- 6. Verge1 Domains Since its creation the Verge framework has been used with a variety of organizations, such as: • Nissan Motor Company •PepsiCo • Ford Motor Company • MTV • Eurostar • Singapore Civil Service College Define: The concepts, ideas, and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us Relate: The social structures and relationships which define people and organizations Connect: The technologies that connect people, places, and things Create: The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services Consume: The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services that we create. Destroy: The ways in which value is destroyed and the reasons for doing so 1 Futurists in the US know this framework as “Verge”, while practitioners in the UK know it as the “ethnographic futures framework.”
- 7. Define speaks to the concepts, ideas, and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us. Define Examples of Changes Found within Define • The shift from a Newtonian scientificworldview to one that sees Chaos, Complexity, and Quantum phenomena • Active, interventionist government policies gaining favor over laissez faire economic theories • People expanding their definition of “natural” to include human‐built structures Things like: • Worldview • Paradigms • Philosophy • Archetypes • Social values and attitudes • Public policy • Religion
- 8. Relate deals with the social structures and relationships which define people and organizations. Relate Examples of Changes Found within Relate • Networked enterpriseseschewing traditional office work spaces and large full time staff in favor of collaboration and outsourcing via Web‐based tools • Age cohort differences in family and child rearing patterns • Young physicians opting for salaried employment rather than private practice Things like: • Family and lifestyle groups • Work life • Business models • Social institutions • Governance structures
- 9. The Connect domain encompasses the technologies and practices used to connect people, places, and things. Connect Examples of Changes Found within Connect • Upwardtrend in individuals using mobile devices to access information and communicate • Prevalence of internet‐based social network services • Emerging community fault lines over proposed mass transit plans Things like: • Information technology • Transportation and mobility • Urban design • Language • Media
- 10. Create is concerned with the technology and processes through which we produce goods and services. Create Examples of Changes Found within Create • Risingpopularity of the DIY ethos • Extrapolating the uses for advanced 3D printing • The push for “localization” and local sourcing emerging across several sectors Things like: • Manufacturing • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Efficiency • Work force • Rule making
- 11. Consume is about the ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create. Consume Examples of Changes Found within Consume • Businessmodels based on the “sharing economy” premise • Community efforts to reduce household water use • Trends in the amount of disposable income controlled by youth Things like: • Modes of exchange • Retail practices • Consumer preferences • Marketing • Patterns of consumption
- 12. The domain of Destroy is about the ways in which we destroy value and the reasons for doing so. Destroy Examples of Changes Found within Destroy • Thefalling trend of formally declared wars between established states • Potential hazard of engineered nanoparticles on human health and the broader biological landscape • “Cyber‐bullying” and the changing social dynamics for American youth Things like: • Violence and killing • Damage • Refuse • Inefficiencies • Attempts to undermine rules and norms
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- 17. The general practice framework can often be used in conjunction with other established futures methods and concepts. Below, using Verge with a simple layered analysis of change in society. Combining Frameworks Surface Layer Systems Layer Worldview Layer DefineRelate Connect Create Consume Destroy By combining the general practice framework with a framework like layered analysis (which identifies the different rates of change that occur at different “layers” of society), we add additional structure that improves our analysis of the many, subtle interrelationships both driving and responding to change.
- 18. Combining Frameworks First HorizonSecond Horizon Third Horizon Define Relate Connect Create Consume Destroy Combining Verge with the Three Horizons2. 2 Andrew Curry and Anthony Hodgson. “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy.” Journal of Futures Studies. August 2008.
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- 20. First Horizon Second HorizonThird Horizon Define Newtonian physics, popular sovereignty Systems, complexity science, networks ? Relate Representative government Online social networks machinarchy Connect Mass media Internet, social media, mobile devices Internet of things Create F2F deliberation, bureaucratic administration; voting Crowdsourcing, civic hacking, co‐production Machines, algorithms, automation Consume Go to government, use what is provided Websites, mobile apps Ambient persistent governance Destroy Political marginalization (lack of suffrage) Party polarization, special interest groups, voter apathy Democracy, human agency, rampant sabotage Sample Combining Verge with the Three Horizons to explore the futures of governance. managers3 entrepreneurs visionaries 3 Categories from Bill Sharpe, via Wendy Schultz, PhD
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