A futures research and foresight methods workshop by SAMI Consulting, Laurie Young, and Infinite Futures - focus on patterns of change over time, using past timelines, Three Horizons, and the Gartner Hype Cycle, and age cohort analysis; CLA; Verge; and Futures Wheels.
Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic IntroductionWendy Schultz
Basic introduction to working with past timelines and the Three Horizons Framework, as presented at the 'Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind' Three Horizons / Futures Thinking Bootcamp, 18-19 September 2013, by Wendy Schultz
Scanning to Manage Disruption and Controversy PACITA 2015Wendy Schultz
An overview of horizon scanning for change management that reviews the results of previous scanning projects and presents some innovative software platforms to support futures and foresight research.
World Future Society 2015 Professional Members ForumWendy Schultz
Slidedeck on the 2015 WFS Professional Members Forum "Software Sandbox" morning session, presented by Dr Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures, and Dr Richard Lum, Vision Foresight Strategy.
Cultural Contradictions of Scanning in an Evidence-based Policy EnvironmentWendy Schultz
An overview of the tensions that arise when attempting to embed a futures perspective, in the form of horizon scanning, in organisations with an evidence-based culture.
Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is nothin...Wendy Schultz
The presentation slides - interspersed with my 'speaking notes' slides - from my keynote panel presentation at ICT 2013 in Vilnius on 7 November 2013. Other panellists described emerging changes; I was asked to help people think about the impacts and implications of those changes, and so offered quick versions of the Three Horizons, Futures Wheels and Manoa Scenario Building, Verge, and Causal Layered Analysis - in 15 minutes.
Three Horizons 18 Sept 2013 - Basic IntroductionWendy Schultz
Basic introduction to working with past timelines and the Three Horizons Framework, as presented at the 'Blowing the Cobwebs Off Your Mind' Three Horizons / Futures Thinking Bootcamp, 18-19 September 2013, by Wendy Schultz
Scanning to Manage Disruption and Controversy PACITA 2015Wendy Schultz
An overview of horizon scanning for change management that reviews the results of previous scanning projects and presents some innovative software platforms to support futures and foresight research.
World Future Society 2015 Professional Members ForumWendy Schultz
Slidedeck on the 2015 WFS Professional Members Forum "Software Sandbox" morning session, presented by Dr Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures, and Dr Richard Lum, Vision Foresight Strategy.
Cultural Contradictions of Scanning in an Evidence-based Policy EnvironmentWendy Schultz
An overview of the tensions that arise when attempting to embed a futures perspective, in the form of horizon scanning, in organisations with an evidence-based culture.
Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is nothin...Wendy Schultz
The presentation slides - interspersed with my 'speaking notes' slides - from my keynote panel presentation at ICT 2013 in Vilnius on 7 November 2013. Other panellists described emerging changes; I was asked to help people think about the impacts and implications of those changes, and so offered quick versions of the Three Horizons, Futures Wheels and Manoa Scenario Building, Verge, and Causal Layered Analysis - in 15 minutes.
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain ScenariosWendy Schultz
A presentation to the University of Houston spring futures gathering 2016 on using Sensemaker to crowdsource mini-scenarios about potential future uses for blockchain technologies.
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
The Abolition of Aging - An update for 2022.pdfDavid Wood
Slides used by David Wood, Chair of London Futurists, in his presentation on 24th March 2022 for the Church of Perpetual Life. The presentation weighed up arguments for and against the possibility of widespread low-cost access, by 2040, of treatments providing comprehensive rejuvenation (reversal of aging) in both body and mind. In particular, the presentation looks at how that balance of probabilities has shifted in the six years since these arguments were first aired in the 2016 book "The Abolition of Aging".
A recording of this presentation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSETLmTKzqg
Foresight tools help us brainstorm ideas about the future so we are better prepared for the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It provides the ability to forward engage, interacting early before issues become difficult to manage.
This booklet – the first of three in the series – outlines 20 foresight tools to throw into the mix, while you walk forward into the future.
The world is changing. And quality professionals need to change right along with it.
Join ASQ's Executive Director and Chief Strategic officer as he explores the key forces that will shape quality, and how to stay on top of them.
Riel Miller educacao a distancia sociedade da informação
Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions
As transformações oportunizadas pelo século XXI
João Jose Saraiva da Fonseca
http://joaojosefonseca1.blogspot.com/
Transition towards a money-less society - End of the Chaos PhaseMaxime Bouillon
After five meetups, we are glad to announce that we finally reach the end of the Chaos Phase and will soon be able to transfer to the Concept Phase!
This presentation aims to show you where we are at and what we look forward.
Please feel free to react on it and share your opinion on the project, the process and the goals!
Find us:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/transitiontowardsmoneyless/
Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/transition-towards-a-moneyless-so…/…/
LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13524929
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDc7NY2l1Xo&t=0s (9min harvest of last session)
Warm hugs to all of you,
Max for Transition towards a money-less society
Lessons from lockdown
Tuesday 8 September 2020
presented by
Ian Cribbes and Vicki Griffiths
with the content co created also by Tim Lyons and Sarah Coleman
The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/lessons-from-lockdown-webinar/
CLA is a post-structural futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah. This slidedeck presents a brief intro with examples for use in facilitation and discussion.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain ScenariosWendy Schultz
A presentation to the University of Houston spring futures gathering 2016 on using Sensemaker to crowdsource mini-scenarios about potential future uses for blockchain technologies.
Future Outlook on Urban CompetitivenessWendy Schultz
The narrative of my 22 June 2010 presentation to the Global Innovation Forum in Seoul, sponsored by the Korea Economic Daily. Please refer to PDF of slidedeck, above.
The Abolition of Aging - An update for 2022.pdfDavid Wood
Slides used by David Wood, Chair of London Futurists, in his presentation on 24th March 2022 for the Church of Perpetual Life. The presentation weighed up arguments for and against the possibility of widespread low-cost access, by 2040, of treatments providing comprehensive rejuvenation (reversal of aging) in both body and mind. In particular, the presentation looks at how that balance of probabilities has shifted in the six years since these arguments were first aired in the 2016 book "The Abolition of Aging".
A recording of this presentation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSETLmTKzqg
Foresight tools help us brainstorm ideas about the future so we are better prepared for the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It provides the ability to forward engage, interacting early before issues become difficult to manage.
This booklet – the first of three in the series – outlines 20 foresight tools to throw into the mix, while you walk forward into the future.
The world is changing. And quality professionals need to change right along with it.
Join ASQ's Executive Director and Chief Strategic officer as he explores the key forces that will shape quality, and how to stay on top of them.
Riel Miller educacao a distancia sociedade da informação
Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions
As transformações oportunizadas pelo século XXI
João Jose Saraiva da Fonseca
http://joaojosefonseca1.blogspot.com/
Transition towards a money-less society - End of the Chaos PhaseMaxime Bouillon
After five meetups, we are glad to announce that we finally reach the end of the Chaos Phase and will soon be able to transfer to the Concept Phase!
This presentation aims to show you where we are at and what we look forward.
Please feel free to react on it and share your opinion on the project, the process and the goals!
Find us:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/transitiontowardsmoneyless/
Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/transition-towards-a-moneyless-so…/…/
LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13524929
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDc7NY2l1Xo&t=0s (9min harvest of last session)
Warm hugs to all of you,
Max for Transition towards a money-less society
Lessons from lockdown
Tuesday 8 September 2020
presented by
Ian Cribbes and Vicki Griffiths
with the content co created also by Tim Lyons and Sarah Coleman
The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/lessons-from-lockdown-webinar/
This is a report of the inputs and outputs from the launch event for #ProjectA on 28th June 2018. The aim is to utilise the experience and wisdom of frontline ambulance staff to improve ambulance services across England
WHO Foresight Approaches in Public Health.pdfWendy Schultz
Suggestions for expanding futures research and foresight capabilities in an organization, with an emphasis on broad participation by stakeholders; includes examples of multiple futures methods and linked processes.
Further exploration of the intersection of our models of time (eg, the futures cone) with chaos theory, complexity theory, images of the future and archetypes, and postnormal times theory.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking pas...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
"It's Chaos Turtles All the Way Down" - presentation for the Global Foresight...Wendy Schultz
An exploration of the tensions of goal-based, visions-based, and emergence-based futures work, an update on the futures cone, and some new turbulence methods mash-ups.
A brief history and description of visioning tools.Wendy Schultz
This starts with the little building a vision mosaic interactive exercise, and ends with the shared joys problem-to-vision exercise. What the slidedeck doesn't note is that we posted the vision detail cards from the first exercise, and clustered them thematically to let a more coherent structure for the vision emerge.
A fun think piece on possible futures for AI and its potential range of relationships with humanity - written in response to a request by editors at Critical Muslim to provide an AI-focussed version of their regular feature, "The List." Thanks to Zia Sardar.
Museum mash-up, or vectors of visioningWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory engagement during the Design Develop Transform event in Antwerp, that combined multiple interactive futures methods: Manoa scenario building, the Verge General Practice Framework for Futures, the Postcards exercise, and Lego Serious Play. Participants explored possible long-range futures for museums and art.
Melding machine learning and participatory foresightWendy Schultz
Describes a participatory process to help experts teach an algorithm to forecast possible futures for jobs and skills in the USA and the UK. Began with scanning data and asked participants to locate those emerging changes onto a map of a generic city and discuss the various impacts. This was followed by scoring how those changes would affect increase or decrease of certain jobs and skills in future labour markets; the scores were input into the algorithm to teach it. The process was iterative.
Tick TOCS Tick TOCS - channeling change through theory into scenariosWendy Schultz
Describes an original scenario-building method used to explore futures for education, based on combining scanning output with specific social change theories. The social change theories provided logical narrative arcs to evolve different futures from starting points in the present.
Crazy Futures: Why Plausibility is MaladaptiveWendy Schultz
Explores how images of the future are perceived and categorized, and how the discipline itself uses 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion - and why that may be a mistake.
ORI BAM Warwick Scenarios 2018 Crowdsourcing Harman's FanWendy Schultz
Describing a distributed, asynchronous method for identifying multiple narrative paths to alternative futures, using the Futurescaper software platform as a way to generate Harman's Fan scenario explorations.
A provocation for the Association of Professional Futurists' Virtual Gathering, 15 September 2017 exploring what is populism in an age when extraordinary is ordinary.
An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
Collecting stories about future uses of blockchain technologyWendy Schultz
This slidedeck briefly introduces blockchain technology and then requests readers to share a scenario - a story of a possible future - of possible uses for blockchain tech in the future. The stories can be shared on Sensemaker, and the slidedeck gives a step-by-step demo of how that would work. The deck then lists possible future users as prompts for your imaginative exploration of how blockchain technology might affect people in all walks of life and sectors.
Employment PracticesRegulation and Multinational CorporationsRoopaTemkar
Employment PracticesRegulation and Multinational Corporations
Strategic decision making within MNCs constrained or determined by the implementation of laws and codes of practice and by pressure from political actors. Managers in MNCs have to make choices that are shaped by gvmt. intervention and the local economy.
Comparing Stability and Sustainability in Agile SystemsRob Healy
Copy of the presentation given at XP2024 based on a research paper.
In this paper we explain wat overwork is and the physical and mental health risks associated with it.
We then explore how overwork relates to system stability and inventory.
Finally there is a call to action for Team Leads / Scrum Masters / Managers to measure and monitor excess work for individual teams.
Public Speaking Tips to Help You Be A Strong Leader.pdfPinta Partners
In the realm of effective leadership, a multitude of skills come into play, but one stands out as both crucial and challenging: public speaking.
Public speaking transcends mere eloquence; it serves as the medium through which leaders articulate their vision, inspire action, and foster engagement. For leaders, refining public speaking skills is essential, elevating their ability to influence, persuade, and lead with resolute conviction. Here are some key tips to consider: https://joellandau.com/the-public-speaking-tips-to-help-you-be-a-stronger-leader/
A presentation on mastering key management concepts across projects, products, programs, and portfolios. Whether you're an aspiring manager or looking to enhance your skills, this session will provide you with the knowledge and tools to succeed in various management roles. Learn about the distinct lifecycles, methodologies, and essential skillsets needed to thrive in today's dynamic business environment.
Senior Project and Engineering Leader Jim Smith.pdfJim Smith
I am a Project and Engineering Leader with extensive experience as a Business Operations Leader, Technical Project Manager, Engineering Manager and Operations Experience for Domestic and International companies such as Electrolux, Carrier, and Deutz. I have developed new products using Stage Gate development/MS Project/JIRA, for the pro-duction of Medical Equipment, Large Commercial Refrigeration Systems, Appliances, HVAC, and Diesel engines.
My experience includes:
Managed customized engineered refrigeration system projects with high voltage power panels from quote to ship, coordinating actions between electrical engineering, mechanical design and application engineering, purchasing, production, test, quality assurance and field installation. Managed projects $25k to $1M per project; 4-8 per month. (Hussmann refrigeration)
Successfully developed the $15-20M yearly corporate capital strategy for manufacturing, with the Executive Team and key stakeholders. Created project scope and specifications, business case, ROI, managed project plans with key personnel for nine consumer product manufacturing and distribution sites; to support the company’s strategic sales plan.
Over 15 years of experience managing and developing cost improvement projects with key Stakeholders, site Manufacturing Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Maintenance, and facility support personnel to optimize pro-duction operations, safety, EHS, and new product development. (BioLab, Deutz, Caire)
Experience working as a Technical Manager developing new products with chemical engineers and packaging engineers to enhance and reduce the cost of retail products. I have led the activities of multiple engineering groups with diverse backgrounds.
Great experience managing the product development of products which utilize complex electrical controls, high voltage power panels, product testing, and commissioning.
Created project scope, business case, ROI for multiple capital projects to support electrotechnical assembly and CPG goods. Identified project cost, risk, success criteria, and performed equipment qualifications. (Carrier, Electrolux, Biolab, Price, Hussmann)
Created detailed projects plans using MS Project, Gant charts in excel, and updated new product development in Jira for stakeholders and project team members including critical path.
Great knowledge of ISO9001, NFPA, OSHA regulations.
User level knowledge of MRP/SAP, MS Project, Powerpoint, Visio, Mastercontrol, JIRA, Power BI and Tableau.
I appreciate your consideration, and look forward to discussing this role with you, and how I can lead your company’s growth and profitability. I can be contacted via LinkedIn via phone or E Mail.
Jim Smith
678-993-7195
jimsmith30024@gmail.com
Enriching engagement with ethical review processesstrikingabalance
New ethics review processes at the University of Bath. Presented at the 8th World Conference on Research Integrity by Filipa Vance, Head of Research Governance and Compliance at the University of Bath. June 2024, Athens
The case study discusses the potential of drone delivery and the challenges that need to be addressed before it becomes widespread.
Key takeaways:
Drone delivery is in its early stages: Amazon's trial in the UK demonstrates the potential for faster deliveries, but it's still limited by regulations and technology.
Regulations are a major hurdle: Safety concerns around drone collisions with airplanes and people have led to restrictions on flight height and location.
Other challenges exist: Who will use drone delivery the most? Is it cost-effective compared to traditional delivery trucks?
Discussion questions:
Managerial challenges: Integrating drones requires planning for new infrastructure, training staff, and navigating regulations. There are also marketing and recruitment considerations specific to this technology.
External forces vary by country: Regulations, consumer acceptance, and infrastructure all differ between countries.
Demographics matter: Younger generations might be more receptive to drone delivery, while older populations might have concerns.
Stakeholders for Amazon: Customers, regulators, aviation authorities, and competitors are all stakeholders. Regulators likely hold the greatest influence as they determine the feasibility of drone delivery.
Specific ServPoints should be tailored for restaurants in all food service segments. Your ServPoints should be the centerpiece of brand delivery training (guest service) and align with your brand position and marketing initiatives, especially in high-labor-cost conditions.
408-784-7371
Foodservice Consulting + Design
Integrity in leadership builds trust by ensuring consistency between words an...Ram V Chary
Integrity in leadership builds trust by ensuring consistency between words and actions, making leaders reliable and credible. It also ensures ethical decision-making, which fosters a positive organizational culture and promotes long-term success. #RamVChary
Org Design is a core skill to be mastered by management for any successful org change.
Org Topologies™ in its essence is a two-dimensional space with 16 distinctive boxes - atomic organizational archetypes. That space helps you to plot your current operating model by positioning individuals, departments, and teams on the map. This will give a profound understanding of the performance of your value-creating organizational ecosystem.
1. Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
1
Welcome
to
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind
Three Horizons Bootcamp
Wolfson College Oxford
18-19 September 2013
2. Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 18 September
TODAY
• 1.00 – 2.00 Orientation: arrival, check-in, light buffet
lunch, introductions.
• 2.00 – 3.00 Future Consciousness
• 3.00 – 5.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Length
What has happened? What is beginning to happen? How can
timelines connecting past patterns and emerging changes extend
the range of our foresight?
Exercise: Using the Three Horizons Framework and connecting it to
the Gartner Hype Cycle, Schumpeter / Perez, and Age-Cohort
Analysis (generational analysis).
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
3. Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
TOMORROW MORNING
• 9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections
• 10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons
mapping.
• 11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea
• 11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perpective to
map broad implications of change.
• 12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
4. Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
TOMORROW AFTERNOON
• 2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore
how change itself transforms.
• 3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea
• 3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-
implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or
clients.
• 4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
Thank you!
5. Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
5
INTRODUCTIONS
Wolfson College Oxford
18-19 September 2013
6. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Our story: Where this came from
• Gill & Laurie's book
• Interest in futures & investment
• Meetings to develop the ideas.
• The cards & advisory work
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
7. Robust decisions in uncertain times
What we covered
• Futures trends.
• Dialogue about the forces.
• Cognitive bias.
• 3 horizons
• Scenarios
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change life-
cycles
8. Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
8
“FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS”
Wolfson College Oxford
18-19 September 2013
9. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Timelines, Change, Time Horizons
• Extended timelines:
– Past change
– Current conditions
– Emerging futures
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
10. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
• Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:
– Technology roadmapping - inadequate
– UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures
– Emerging practice
– Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
• Curry and Hodgson, cases and article
• Growing community of practice
11. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon ONE
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11
• Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations
of past decisions and designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with
surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with
problems frame approaches to new
challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a
limited resource
MANAGERIAL
12. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon THREE
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12
• Imagined futures and emerging changes –
transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social
settlements and systems that could be
brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural
assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of time
as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY
13. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon TWO
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13
• Looks both ways – past and future – to
respond to limitations of H1 and
opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence
• Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past
• Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost
– trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL
14. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizons Insights
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14
“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which
change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead
become aware that everything that seems
fixed and stable is just part of a slow process
of change, embedded in other processes that
extend out as far as we want to explore.”
15. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15
16. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Time and Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16
17. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Charles Handy on Change
Performance
Time
A
B
C
D
E
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17
18. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Time and Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
19. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 1
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
20. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 2
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
21. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Gartner Hype Cycle
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
24. Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
24
Dinner – 6.45 – 7.45, in Hall
Relaxing – Wine and talk after
…and so to bed.
Wolfson College Oxford
18-19 September 2013
25. Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
MORNING
• 9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections
• 10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons
mapping.
• 11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea
• 11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perspective to
map broad implications of change.
• 12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 25
26. Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
AFTERNOON
• 2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore
how change itself transforms.
• 3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea
• 3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-
implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or
clients.
• 4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 26
Thank you!
27. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Causal Layered Analysis
Dr. Sohail Inayatullah
27
28. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Causes
Metaphors and Myths
Problem
Social, Economic,
Cultural
Discourse Analysis:
culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral
dynamics memes (alternatives)
Myth/Metaphor Analysis:
Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories,
gut level responses, emotional responses,
visual images - may not be words for it
(visioning)
Worldview
The “Litany”: official public description of issue
observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin,
opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)
Social Science Analysis: short-term historical
facts
start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections,
technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis
(systems)
Sources: R. Slaughter, “Integral Opera6ng System” World Future Society, July 2003, drawing on Sohail Inayatullah;
Dennis List, “3 Maps of the Future,” July 18, 2003; Andy Hines, UH-Clear Lake, 2006.
Con6nuous
Years
Societal/Civiliza6onal
Decades
Time Scale of Change
29. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Litany: official public description
of the issue
• Definition:
– events,
– trends,
– problems,
– “word on the street,”
– media spin,
– official positions.
• Example: Marriage.
– Climbing divorce
rate;
– More single parent &
“blended” families;
– More cross-cultural,
cross-church, &
alternative
marriages;
– More commuting
marriages.
30. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Causes: social science
and systems analysis
• Definition:
– structures,
– interrelationships,
– systems,
– policy analysis,
technical
explanations, role of
the state and
interest groups.
• Example: Marriage.
– Fragmentation of
communities;
– Wedding (party) no
longer linked to
marriage
(commitment);
– AIDS epidemic >>
monogamy = safety.
31. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Worldview
• Definition:
– culture,
– values,
– paradigms / mental
models
– how language
frames / constrains
the issue.
• Example: Marriage.
– Be fruitful -- and be
sanctified;
– Purity, commitment,
monogamy, fidelity,
childrearing;
– Double standards;
– “Old man/lady;”
“breadwinner” and
“home-maker”, etc. .
32. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Myth/Metaphor
• Definition:
– collective
archetypes,
– gut/emotional
responses,
– visual images.
• Example: Marriage.
– Adam and Eve;
– The Great Mother;
– American Gothic;
– Someone for everyone
-- but only one;
– Cake - dance - ring;
– Security vs. fear of
commitment.
33. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Eg, Futures for Marriage
• From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or
clan marriages;
• From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy -
SecondLife celebration - embedded ID
chip;
• From American Gothic to the Beckhams --
celebrity couples.
34. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Medical mistakes
Litany High rate of medical mistakes
Solu6on: more GP training
Systemic
causes
Audit on causes of mistakes: communica6on, new technologies, administra6on
Solu6on: more efficient, smarter systems
Worldview Reduc6onist modern medical paradigm creates hierarchy
Solu6on: enhance power of pa6ents; move to different health systems
Myth /
metaphor
“Doctor knows best”
Solu6on: “Take charge of your health”
34
CLA Examples
City transport futures
Litany Conges6on and pollu6on
Solu6on: expand roads and regulate emissions
Systemic
causes
Audit points of conges6on, explore new technologies and travel choices
Solu6on: integrated planning and expansion of travel choices
Worldview Modernist centralised city
Solu6on: redefine the city, decentralise the city, and rethink 6me – develop city 6me policies
Myth /
metaphor
“Bigger is be`er”
Solu6on: “Create post-modern village”
35. Robust decisions in uncertain times
CHANGE!
Using CLA to create
alternative scenarios / visions:
Iden:fy the litany: current condi:ons & events.
Analyze the causes: interrela:onships, systems.
Explore the worldview: values and cultural icons.
Unveil the myths/metaphors: archetypes, emo:ons.
Analyse down, iden6fying alterna6ve litanies,
causes, worldviews, and myths: create change by
choosing alterna6ves as you surface.
36. Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Pick an issue, e.g., security in global tourism.
• Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it:
– Brainstorm on sticky note pads
– Cluster like items into themes
– Identify gaps and needs for research (optional)
• Create a scenario or vision by:
– choosing an alternative metaphor / myth or worldview;
– working back up through the layers, brainstorming new
contents for each layer that would logically emerge from
the changes in the foundation layer below;
– until you reach a new set of events and behaviours
comprising an entirely new litany.
CLA Exercise:
37. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Litany: public descriptions
Definition:
– events,
– trends,
– problems,
– “word on the
street,”
– media spin,
– official
positions.
Example: security in global tourism.
– 47 kidnappings of tourists in Kuwait;
– More restrictions on conditions of
travel;
– Increased use of biometric IDs;
– More security checks;
– Explosions in Sharm El Sheikh;
– Government advice on safety;
– Increased public perception of
insecurity;
– Shifting “comparative advantage” of
perceived secure destinations.
38. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Causes: social science and
systems analysis
Definition:
– structures,
– interrelationships,
– systems,
– policy analysis,
technical
explanations, role
of the state and
interest groups.
Example: security in global
tourism.
– Tourists as currency (trade for
infrastructure improvements);
– Media attention to security
incidents;
– Rapid reallocation of financial
resources to security;
– Local hostility due to negative
social and environmental
impacts of tourism.
39. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Worldview
Definition:
– culture,
– values,
– Paradigms /
mental
models
– how language
frames /
constrains the
issue.
Example: security in global
tourism.
– Tourists bring challenges to our
values;
– State responsible for our
security;
– Environmental consciousness;
– Terrorists/-ism is MAD and BAD
-- not freedom fighters but
criminals;
– Terrorism a global issue;
– Militarisation of many nations.
40. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Myth/Metaphor
Definition:
– collective
archetypes,
– Gut /
emotional
responses,
– visual
images.
Example: security in global tourism.
– “White hats vs black hats” - good -
bad seen as dichotomy;
– “Rucksacks with wires” - portable
chaos;
– Destination seen as “dangerous
territory” or “dark territory” -
unknown seen as dangerous;
– Civilised vs. exotic; exotic = not
civilised;
– Fear (caused by ignorance) of other;
– “Adventure has risks”.
41. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Alternative future:
security in global tourism.
New myths:
The sacred pilgrimage;
the other as teacher and
guide.
New worldviews / values:
Travel = educa6on =
benefits; diversity &
difference celebrated.
New systems:
Local support structures
embedding visitors in local
life, local systems.
Move from the myth of risky
adventures in exo6c
unknown lands peopled by
dangerous strangers…
…to the myth of a joint pilgrimage
of learning embedded within a local
network of experts sharing their
unique environment.
New events, behaviours:
Visitors - ‘pilgrims’ -
assigned local hosts,
guides, & interpreters.
Alternate myths and
values generate new
opera:ng
assump:ons and
crea:ve solu:ons.
42. Robust decisions in uncertain times
VERGE General Practice Framework
Dr. Richard Lum
Focus not on the drivers, but on the impacts:
How does change ripple out across the various segments of human
experience?
Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the
Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a
set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human
experience.
For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the
common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while
our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need
for them does not.
Michele Bowman and Richard Lum
Goal: Use the Ethnographic Futures Framework (EFF) to integrate a new
value set or mental model into your organisation, and imagine how different
human actions and responses to your products might align with those new
values.
42www.samiconsulting.co.uk
43. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Verge – exploration of change
focused on people
Verge was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight
and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods and services
The ways in which we
acquire and use the
goods and services
we create
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and
organizations
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
The technologies
used to connect
people, places
and things
The ways in which
we destroy value
and the reasons for
doing so
43www.samiconsulting.co.uk
44. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The concepts, ideas and
paradigms we use to define
ourselves and the world
around us.
Worldviews
Paradigms
Philosophies
Social Values & Attitudes
Scientific Models
Culture
Economic Systems
Religion
Politics & Public Policy
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms
will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
44
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
45. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and organizations.
Demographics
Family & Lifestyle Groups
Work & Economy
Habitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & Practices
Government
International Relations
Education
RELATE: How will we live together
on planet Earth?
45www.samiconsulting.co.uk
46. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The technologies used to connect people,
places and things, including:
Information Technology
Music
Media
Visual Arts
Language
Space and Urban Design
What arts and technologies will we use to CONNECT
people, places, and things?
Example: radical biotechnology:
DNA-based computing possible;
gifts of bio-designed life the new
Valentine bouquets; genetically
engineered organic sculptures…
46www.samiconsulting.co.uk
47. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The processes and technology through
which we produce goods and services,
including:
Engineering
Wealth
Manufacturing
Innovation Processes
Life Sciences
Materials Sciences
Nanotechnology
Efficiency
Workforce
As human beings what will we be inspired to CREATE?
Example: radical biotechnology:
Many new materials ‘manufactured’
on farms: goats produce proteins,
plants produce plastics, etc.;
‘artificial insects’ monitor
agricultural lands, water quality, etc…
47www.samiconsulting.co.uk
48. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The ways in which we acquire and use the
goods and services we create, including:
Modes of Exchange
Retail Practices
Consumer Preferences
Marketing
Patterns of Consumption
Locations of Consumption
Patterns of Raw Materials Use
Touch Points
How will we use the earth’s resources?
Example: radical biotechnology:
More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in
design: self-repair, communicate to
others of their kind, optimise their
intake / output of energy and waste….
48www.samiconsulting.co.uk
49. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The processes that contribute to reducing value
and increasing entropy, including:
Violence and Killing
Damage
Refuse and Waste
Inefficiencies
Attempts to Undermine
Values and Norms
Touch Points
DESTROY: How will we destroy value, and what will be
our reasons for doing so?
Example: radical biotechnology:
Potential hazards of engineered nano-
bio-particles on human health and the
broader natural environment and
landscape…
49www.samiconsulting.co.uk
50. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Verge – exploration of change
focused on people:
EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight
and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and
technology through
which we create
goods and services
The ways in which we
acquire and use the
goods and services
we create
Social structures and
relationships which link
people and
organizations
The concepts, ideas
and paradigms we
use to define the
world around us
The technologies
used to connect
people, places
and things
The ways in which
we destroy value
and the reasons for
doing so
50www.samiconsulting.co.uk
51. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Align your organisation
to shape the future
51www.samiconsulting.co.uk
52. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Wheels
• The Futures wheel is an instrument for
graphical visualisation of direct and
indirect future consequences of a
particular change or development.
• It is a structured brainstorming tool to
explore the future of a specific topic or
systematically capture the effect of
various future developments on each
other.
52
53. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Wheels: Origins
• Jerome Glenn
– Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a
method for policy analysis and
forecasting
– Also called Implementation Wheel,
Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and
Webbing.
• Joel Barker
– Cascade thinking: go out at least
three orders of implications to find big
surprises
– http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-
wheel/index.htm
53
54. Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Enter your assigned change in the inner
circle of your worksheet.
• Everyone take five minutes by themselves
to imagine possible impacts of this change
over the next twenty years.
• Share your individual lists within your group.
Which of these are immediate, or primary,
impacts? Write those down next to the
appropriate spoke .
• Now consider each primary impact, one by
one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will
have, and map those, connecting each to its
primary impact.
Futures Wheels: Instructions
54
55. Robust decisions in uncertain times
secondary
effects
work?
hobbies?
education?home/
families?
travel?
communications?
economy?
environment?
primary effects
impact
impact
impact
work noisier
“earbud” headphones
to talk to/hear computer
office sound
barriers
silent, eye-tracking
menu navigation
goggles developed
voice input / output,
biometric passwords
Futures Wheel
55
Futures Wheels: Example
56. Robust decisions in uncertain times
voice input / output,
biometric passwords
Futures Wheel
market for “great
voices”
work noisier
no passwords
required drop in carpal tunnel
syndrome
Increase in
worker
productivity
decline in worker
compensation
costs
collapse of
keyboard wrist
rest market
New licensing
opp’ty for popular
singers and actors
pirate market:
great voices
“napsterized”
Rather talk to
your machine
than you…
56
Futures Wheels: Example
57. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Wheels (Impact Wheels) augmented with Verge
Adapted from J Glenn; R
Lum
57
Futures Wheels: Example with Verge