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Introduction to soil property
mapping
Dr. V.L. Muldera & Dr. B. Kempenb
a) Soil Geography and Landscape group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
b) ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Training “Digital Soil Organic Carbon Mapping: towards the
development of national soil organic carbon stock maps”
Outline
1. Overview global soil maps
– Soil classification maps
– Soil property maps
2. Conventional soil mapping
3. Digital soil mapping
4. Model evaluation
– Uncertainty
– Validation
07/06/2017 FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping 2
1. OVERVIEW SOIL MAPS
07/06/2017 3FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
Definitions & objectives
• Soil property maps
– Represent spatial information about soil properties for a certain depth
interval or for soil horizons
• Traditional/Conventional soil maps
– Polygon maps with mapping units
– Mapping units are associated to representative soil profiles
• Digital Soil Mapping
– Spatial continuous mapping and modelling of soil properties (and soil
classes)
– Statistical inference between sampled sites and environmental
datasets
– Spatial prediction of soil properties and quantification of the
prediction error
• GSP implementation: 1km resolution, grid-based soil property maps
– Whenever possible use Digital Soil Mapping
07/06/2017 4FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
WRB Soil Map of the World
07/06/2017 5
http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-
maps-and-databases/other-global-soil-maps-and-
databases/en/
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
Macedonia WRB soil polygon map
07/06/2017 6FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
Harmonized World Soil Database
07/06/2017 7
http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-
maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-
database-v12/en/
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
Harmonized World Soil Database
07/06/2017 8
http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-
maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-
database-v12/en/
Coverage DSMW
Soil Mapping Unit 4640
Dominant Soil Group CM - Cambisols
Sequence 1 2 3 4
Share in Soil Mapping Unit (%)
50 20 20 10
Database ID 43514 43516 43515 43517
Soil Unit Symbol (FAO 74)
Bd L A G
Soil Unit Name (FAO74)
Dystric Cambisols Luvisols Acrisols Gleysols
Topsoil Texture Medium Medium Medium Medium
Reference Soil Depth (cm)
100 100 100 100
Drainage class (0-0.5% slope)
Moderately Well Moderately Well Moderately Well Poor
AWC (mm) 150 150 150 150
Gelic Properties No No No No
Vertic Properties No No No No
Petric Properties No No No No
Topsoil Sand Fraction (%)
41 48 49 38
Topsoil Silt Fraction (%) 39 30 27
40
Topsoil Clay Fraction (%) 20 22 24
22
Topsoil USDA Texture Classification
loam loam sandy clay loam loam
Topsoil Reference Bulk Density (kg/dm3)
1.41 1.41 1.4 1.39
Topsoil Bulk Density (kg/dm3)
1.3 1.45 1.4 1.33
Topsoil Gravel Content (%)
10 5 9 4
Topsoil Organic Carbon (% weight)
1.45 0.8 1.03 1.27
Topsoil pH (H2O) 5.1 6.3 4.9 5.8
Topsoil CEC (clay) (cmol/kg) 30 36 15
35
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
SoilGrids
07/06/2017 9
http://www.soilgrids.org
Hengl T, Mendes de Jesus J, Heuvelink GBM, Ruiperez Gonzalez M, Kilibarda M, Blagotić A, et al. (2017) SoilGrids250m: Global
gridded soil information based on machine learning. PLoS ONE 12(2): e0169748. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
SoilGrids
07/06/2017 10FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
SoilGrids: SOC at 15 cm depth
07/06/2017 11FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
1. Overview soil maps
S-World: A Global Soil Map for Environmental
Modelling
07/06/2017 12
Land Degradation & Development
Volume 28, Issue 1, pages 22-33, 1 DEC 2016 DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2656
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ldr.2656/full#ldr2656-fig-0005
Figure 6: S-World results for modelled SOC (%) for the world and Rwanda
(topsoil) (white areas represent areas with no data as there is no soil).
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
2. CONVENTIONAL SOIL MAPS
07/06/2017 13FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
2. Conventional soil maps
Theory
• Soil Survey
– Systematic study of the soil of an area including classification and mapping of
the properties and distribution of soil units
• Determine the pattern of the soil cover (delineated areas)
– Divide pattern into relatively homogeneous units
• Traditionally using aerial photographs combined with field observations
– Map the distribution of these units (Soil Mapping Units)
• Polygon map
• Homogenous in soil and landscape variability, not by definition 1 value for the whole
polygon (compound mapping unit)
• Characterize the SMUs
• Soil classification, soil qualifiers, soil series, soil properties
• Useful information for subsequent studies, e.g. land use potential and model expected
response to changes in management
– Soil Survey Manual and FAO guidelines:
• ftp://ftp.fao.org/FI/CDrom/FAO_Training/FAO_Training/General/x6706e/Index.htm
07/06/2017 14FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
2. Conventional soil maps
Potentials and limitations
• The soil classification, including soil qualifiers does
provide a lot of useful information about the SMUs.
However:
– Fixed scale, not always useful for applications (too coarse)
– Through aggregation in SMUs information is lost
– Uncertainty typically not quantified
– Polygon data model not easy to integrate with gridded
biophysical data
• Whenever possible, DSM is recommended
– More accurate spatial mapping of soil properties
– Spatial quantification of the prediction error
07/06/2017 15FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
2. Conventional soil maps
Mapping SOC stocks
• Matching the Soil Mapping Units with soil
profile information
• Use other environmental gridded data
• Training: Conventional upscaling methods
07/06/2017 16FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. DIGITAL SOIL MAPPING
07/06/2017 17FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Pedometrics
• Pedometrics is a branch of soil science that applies mathematical
and statistical methods for the study of the distribution and genesis
of soils
• The goal of pedometrics is to achieve a better understanding of the
soil as a phenomenon that varies over different scales in space and
time
• Predicting the properties of the soil in space and time, with
sampling and monitoring the soil and with modelling the soil’s
behaviour.
• Developing and applying quantitative methods
– sampling designs and strategies
– geostatistical methods for spatial prediction
– linear modelling methods
– novel mathematical and computational techniques (machine learning,
wavelet transforms and fuzzy logic)
07/06/2017 18
Source: http://www.pedometrics2017.org/what-is-pedometrics/
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Theory
07/06/2017 19
Source: Africa Soil Information Service,
http://www.africasoils.net/data/digital-
soil-mapping
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Theory
• Soil-landscape paradigm (Jenny, 1941)
• The soil forming factors: s=f(cl,o,r,p,t)
– Cl = climate
– O = organisms
– R = relief
– P = Parent Material
– T = Time
• S=f(s,c,o,r,p,a,n) (McBratney et al., 2003)
– with s being known soil properties
– With n being the spatial or geographic position
• Environmental gridded dataset -> covariates
07/06/2017 20FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Theory
1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured.
2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent.
3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear
regression)
4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the
variability.
5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We
therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the
predicted values and the measured values.
6. Check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the model
over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are spatially
correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under-predict
(kriging of residuals).
7. Finally we can ‘correct’ the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals.
8. Model evaluation and map accuracy
07/06/2017 21FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Theory
1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured.
2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent.
3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear
regression)
4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the
variability.
5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We
therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the
predicted values and the measured values.
6. Check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the model
over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are spatially
correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under-predict
(kriging of residuals).
7. Finally we can correct the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals.
8. Model evaluation and map accuracy
07/06/2017 22FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Example statistical inference: Data
07/06/2017 23FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Example statistical inference: Data
Original SOC (%) Log-transformed SOC (%)
2407/06/2017
Min. 1Q Median 3Q Max
SOC (%) 0.02 0.75 1.169 1.93 21.2
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Example statistical inference: Regression model
Multiple Linear Regression Stepwise MLR
2507/06/2017
• R2 = 0.2993
• R2adj=0.2942
• Residual error = 0.6848
• 1780 degrees of freedom
• R2 = 0.2986
• R2adj = 0.2951
• Residual error = 0.6844
• 1784 degrees of freedom
• Clay, Silt, AWC, CEC were
excluded
#### multiple linear regression model
lm_fit_log <- lm(log_SOC~ AWC+ Depth+ BD+ CEC+ Clay+ CoarseF+ DEM+Prec+ slope+ silt+ sand+Temp+TWI, data=pred_data)
summary(lm_fit_log)
# Stepwise Regression
step_lm_log <- stepAIC(lm_fit_log, direction="both")
step_lm_log$anova # display results
summary(step_lm_log)
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Example statistical inference: Regression model
07/06/2017 26FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Spatial prediction of SOC
07/06/2017 27FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Spatial prediction of SOC
07/06/2017 28FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Theory
1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured.
2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent.
3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear
regression)
4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the
variability.
5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We
therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the
predicted values and the measured values.
6. Double check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the
model over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are
spatially correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under-
predict (kriging of residuals).
7. Finally we can correct the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals.
8. Model evaluation and map accuracy
07/06/2017 29FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Prediction residuals
Distribution of residuals Spatial correlation in residuals
3007/06/2017
Kriging of residuals because the residuals are spatially autocorrelated
Geostatistical methods are needed to improve spatial quantification of
soil properties!
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
3. Digital Soil Mapping
Geostatistics
07/06/2017 31
• Training ‘Basic geostatistics’
– Quantifying spatial variation: semi-variogram
– Ordinary Kriging
– Quantification of prediction uncertainty
• Training Regression and Machine Learning
Methods for DSM
– Linear regression
– Machine learning algorithms (random forest)
– Fitting and interpreting a model in R
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. MODEL EVALUATION
07/06/2017 32FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. Model evaluation
• Get confidence in a model
• Get to know how close the model is to reality
• Get to understand whether the behaviour of
the model corresponds with reality
• Without model evaluation we would have no
idea how reliable the model is
07/06/2017 33
Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World
Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. Model evaluation
• Model evaluation not the same as model validation
• Model evaluation: the process of analysing the validity
of the model structure and appraising the performance
of a model by comparing the model predictions with
(independent) observations
• Model validation (or verification): formal recognition
that a model is legitimate, that it is an accurate
representation of reality, or even that it represents the
‘truth’
• Beware: no consensus on meaning of these terms
(read today’s literature!)
07/06/2017 34
Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World
Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. Model evaluation
Causes of deviation between model and reality
• Human error (e.g. a coding or typing error)
• Model is (partly on purpose!) a simplification of
reality:
• Less important processes ignored, lumped or
represented in a simplified way (model structural error)
• Errors in model parameters (e.g. because model is
calibrated on a small dataset or a dataset from another
area or time period)
• Approximations in solution methods (e.g. numerical
solution of differential equations)
• Model inputs poorly known (input error)
07/06/2017 35
Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World
Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. Model evaluation
Scientific evaluation
• Does model structure accord with physical laws
such as conservation of mass, are cause-and-
effect relationships properly represented, are
model assumptions consistent with physical
principles
• Quality check of computer implementation
(standardized coding protocols, code checking,
bug detection)
• Is model behaviour as expected (sensitivity
analysis)?
07/06/2017 36
Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World
Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands
FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
4. Model evaluation
Statistical evaluation
• Training: Quantifying and assessing uncertainty
– Spatial stochastic simulation
– Uncertainty propagation
• Training: Validation of predicted soil property
maps
– Methods and measures
– Sampling for validation and mapping
07/06/2017 37FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
Training programme – GSP Global SOC
1. Introduction to soil
property mapping
2. Data preparation
3. Basic Geostatistics
4. Conventional upscaling
methods
5. Regression Kriging
6. Uncertainty
7. Validation
07/06/2017 38FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
Questions?!
Next: lecture Data Preparation

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Introduction to soil property mapping

  • 1. Introduction to soil property mapping Dr. V.L. Muldera & Dr. B. Kempenb a) Soil Geography and Landscape group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands b) ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands Training “Digital Soil Organic Carbon Mapping: towards the development of national soil organic carbon stock maps”
  • 2. Outline 1. Overview global soil maps – Soil classification maps – Soil property maps 2. Conventional soil mapping 3. Digital soil mapping 4. Model evaluation – Uncertainty – Validation 07/06/2017 FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping 2
  • 3. 1. OVERVIEW SOIL MAPS 07/06/2017 3FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 4. 1. Overview soil maps Definitions & objectives • Soil property maps – Represent spatial information about soil properties for a certain depth interval or for soil horizons • Traditional/Conventional soil maps – Polygon maps with mapping units – Mapping units are associated to representative soil profiles • Digital Soil Mapping – Spatial continuous mapping and modelling of soil properties (and soil classes) – Statistical inference between sampled sites and environmental datasets – Spatial prediction of soil properties and quantification of the prediction error • GSP implementation: 1km resolution, grid-based soil property maps – Whenever possible use Digital Soil Mapping 07/06/2017 4FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 5. 1. Overview soil maps WRB Soil Map of the World 07/06/2017 5 http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil- maps-and-databases/other-global-soil-maps-and- databases/en/ FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 6. 1. Overview soil maps Macedonia WRB soil polygon map 07/06/2017 6FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 7. 1. Overview soil maps Harmonized World Soil Database 07/06/2017 7 http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil- maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil- database-v12/en/ FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 8. 1. Overview soil maps Harmonized World Soil Database 07/06/2017 8 http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil- maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil- database-v12/en/ Coverage DSMW Soil Mapping Unit 4640 Dominant Soil Group CM - Cambisols Sequence 1 2 3 4 Share in Soil Mapping Unit (%) 50 20 20 10 Database ID 43514 43516 43515 43517 Soil Unit Symbol (FAO 74) Bd L A G Soil Unit Name (FAO74) Dystric Cambisols Luvisols Acrisols Gleysols Topsoil Texture Medium Medium Medium Medium Reference Soil Depth (cm) 100 100 100 100 Drainage class (0-0.5% slope) Moderately Well Moderately Well Moderately Well Poor AWC (mm) 150 150 150 150 Gelic Properties No No No No Vertic Properties No No No No Petric Properties No No No No Topsoil Sand Fraction (%) 41 48 49 38 Topsoil Silt Fraction (%) 39 30 27 40 Topsoil Clay Fraction (%) 20 22 24 22 Topsoil USDA Texture Classification loam loam sandy clay loam loam Topsoil Reference Bulk Density (kg/dm3) 1.41 1.41 1.4 1.39 Topsoil Bulk Density (kg/dm3) 1.3 1.45 1.4 1.33 Topsoil Gravel Content (%) 10 5 9 4 Topsoil Organic Carbon (% weight) 1.45 0.8 1.03 1.27 Topsoil pH (H2O) 5.1 6.3 4.9 5.8 Topsoil CEC (clay) (cmol/kg) 30 36 15 35 FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 9. 1. Overview soil maps SoilGrids 07/06/2017 9 http://www.soilgrids.org Hengl T, Mendes de Jesus J, Heuvelink GBM, Ruiperez Gonzalez M, Kilibarda M, Blagotić A, et al. (2017) SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning. PLoS ONE 12(2): e0169748. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748 FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 10. 1. Overview soil maps SoilGrids 07/06/2017 10FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 11. 1. Overview soil maps SoilGrids: SOC at 15 cm depth 07/06/2017 11FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 12. 1. Overview soil maps S-World: A Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling 07/06/2017 12 Land Degradation & Development Volume 28, Issue 1, pages 22-33, 1 DEC 2016 DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2656 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ldr.2656/full#ldr2656-fig-0005 Figure 6: S-World results for modelled SOC (%) for the world and Rwanda (topsoil) (white areas represent areas with no data as there is no soil). FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 13. 2. CONVENTIONAL SOIL MAPS 07/06/2017 13FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 14. 2. Conventional soil maps Theory • Soil Survey – Systematic study of the soil of an area including classification and mapping of the properties and distribution of soil units • Determine the pattern of the soil cover (delineated areas) – Divide pattern into relatively homogeneous units • Traditionally using aerial photographs combined with field observations – Map the distribution of these units (Soil Mapping Units) • Polygon map • Homogenous in soil and landscape variability, not by definition 1 value for the whole polygon (compound mapping unit) • Characterize the SMUs • Soil classification, soil qualifiers, soil series, soil properties • Useful information for subsequent studies, e.g. land use potential and model expected response to changes in management – Soil Survey Manual and FAO guidelines: • ftp://ftp.fao.org/FI/CDrom/FAO_Training/FAO_Training/General/x6706e/Index.htm 07/06/2017 14FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 15. 2. Conventional soil maps Potentials and limitations • The soil classification, including soil qualifiers does provide a lot of useful information about the SMUs. However: – Fixed scale, not always useful for applications (too coarse) – Through aggregation in SMUs information is lost – Uncertainty typically not quantified – Polygon data model not easy to integrate with gridded biophysical data • Whenever possible, DSM is recommended – More accurate spatial mapping of soil properties – Spatial quantification of the prediction error 07/06/2017 15FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 16. 2. Conventional soil maps Mapping SOC stocks • Matching the Soil Mapping Units with soil profile information • Use other environmental gridded data • Training: Conventional upscaling methods 07/06/2017 16FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 17. 3. DIGITAL SOIL MAPPING 07/06/2017 17FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 18. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Pedometrics • Pedometrics is a branch of soil science that applies mathematical and statistical methods for the study of the distribution and genesis of soils • The goal of pedometrics is to achieve a better understanding of the soil as a phenomenon that varies over different scales in space and time • Predicting the properties of the soil in space and time, with sampling and monitoring the soil and with modelling the soil’s behaviour. • Developing and applying quantitative methods – sampling designs and strategies – geostatistical methods for spatial prediction – linear modelling methods – novel mathematical and computational techniques (machine learning, wavelet transforms and fuzzy logic) 07/06/2017 18 Source: http://www.pedometrics2017.org/what-is-pedometrics/ FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 19. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Theory 07/06/2017 19 Source: Africa Soil Information Service, http://www.africasoils.net/data/digital- soil-mapping FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 20. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Theory • Soil-landscape paradigm (Jenny, 1941) • The soil forming factors: s=f(cl,o,r,p,t) – Cl = climate – O = organisms – R = relief – P = Parent Material – T = Time • S=f(s,c,o,r,p,a,n) (McBratney et al., 2003) – with s being known soil properties – With n being the spatial or geographic position • Environmental gridded dataset -> covariates 07/06/2017 20FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 21. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Theory 1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured. 2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent. 3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear regression) 4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the variability. 5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the predicted values and the measured values. 6. Check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the model over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are spatially correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under-predict (kriging of residuals). 7. Finally we can ‘correct’ the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals. 8. Model evaluation and map accuracy 07/06/2017 21FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 22. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Theory 1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured. 2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent. 3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear regression) 4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the variability. 5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the predicted values and the measured values. 6. Check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the model over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are spatially correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under-predict (kriging of residuals). 7. Finally we can correct the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals. 8. Model evaluation and map accuracy 07/06/2017 22FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 23. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Example statistical inference: Data 07/06/2017 23FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 24. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Example statistical inference: Data Original SOC (%) Log-transformed SOC (%) 2407/06/2017 Min. 1Q Median 3Q Max SOC (%) 0.02 0.75 1.169 1.93 21.2 FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 25. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Example statistical inference: Regression model Multiple Linear Regression Stepwise MLR 2507/06/2017 • R2 = 0.2993 • R2adj=0.2942 • Residual error = 0.6848 • 1780 degrees of freedom • R2 = 0.2986 • R2adj = 0.2951 • Residual error = 0.6844 • 1784 degrees of freedom • Clay, Silt, AWC, CEC were excluded #### multiple linear regression model lm_fit_log <- lm(log_SOC~ AWC+ Depth+ BD+ CEC+ Clay+ CoarseF+ DEM+Prec+ slope+ silt+ sand+Temp+TWI, data=pred_data) summary(lm_fit_log) # Stepwise Regression step_lm_log <- stepAIC(lm_fit_log, direction="both") step_lm_log$anova # display results summary(step_lm_log) FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 26. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Example statistical inference: Regression model 07/06/2017 26FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 27. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Spatial prediction of SOC 07/06/2017 27FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 28. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Spatial prediction of SOC 07/06/2017 28FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 29. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Theory 1. Carry out a survey where the target variable is being sampled and measured. 2. Identify potential covariate data that are available with the appropriate resolution and extent. 3. Correlate the target variable to you covariate data and derive a statistical model (e.g. linear regression) 4. Apply the statistical model to your covariate data. This will give you a first estimate of the variability. 5. The statistical model will not always explain all the variability that we observe in our data. We therefore calculate the prediction residuals of our observations, i.e. the difference between the predicted values and the measured values. 6. Double check whether the residuals are spatially correlated (variogram). If this is the case, the model over-predicts in certain areas and under-predicts in other parts. If the residuals are spatially correlated then we can interpolate the residuals to see where we over- and under- predict (kriging of residuals). 7. Finally we can correct the estimate from Step 4 with the residuals. 8. Model evaluation and map accuracy 07/06/2017 29FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 30. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Prediction residuals Distribution of residuals Spatial correlation in residuals 3007/06/2017 Kriging of residuals because the residuals are spatially autocorrelated Geostatistical methods are needed to improve spatial quantification of soil properties! FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 31. 3. Digital Soil Mapping Geostatistics 07/06/2017 31 • Training ‘Basic geostatistics’ – Quantifying spatial variation: semi-variogram – Ordinary Kriging – Quantification of prediction uncertainty • Training Regression and Machine Learning Methods for DSM – Linear regression – Machine learning algorithms (random forest) – Fitting and interpreting a model in R FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 32. 4. MODEL EVALUATION 07/06/2017 32FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 33. 4. Model evaluation • Get confidence in a model • Get to know how close the model is to reality • Get to understand whether the behaviour of the model corresponds with reality • Without model evaluation we would have no idea how reliable the model is 07/06/2017 33 Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 34. 4. Model evaluation • Model evaluation not the same as model validation • Model evaluation: the process of analysing the validity of the model structure and appraising the performance of a model by comparing the model predictions with (independent) observations • Model validation (or verification): formal recognition that a model is legitimate, that it is an accurate representation of reality, or even that it represents the ‘truth’ • Beware: no consensus on meaning of these terms (read today’s literature!) 07/06/2017 34 Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 35. 4. Model evaluation Causes of deviation between model and reality • Human error (e.g. a coding or typing error) • Model is (partly on purpose!) a simplification of reality: • Less important processes ignored, lumped or represented in a simplified way (model structural error) • Errors in model parameters (e.g. because model is calibrated on a small dataset or a dataset from another area or time period) • Approximations in solution methods (e.g. numerical solution of differential equations) • Model inputs poorly known (input error) 07/06/2017 35 Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 36. 4. Model evaluation Scientific evaluation • Does model structure accord with physical laws such as conservation of mass, are cause-and- effect relationships properly represented, are model assumptions consistent with physical principles • Quality check of computer implementation (standardized coding protocols, code checking, bug detection) • Is model behaviour as expected (sensitivity analysis)? 07/06/2017 36 Slide courtesy: Gerard Heuvelink, ISRIC World Soil Information, Wageningen, The Netherlands FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 37. 4. Model evaluation Statistical evaluation • Training: Quantifying and assessing uncertainty – Spatial stochastic simulation – Uncertainty propagation • Training: Validation of predicted soil property maps – Methods and measures – Sampling for validation and mapping 07/06/2017 37FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping
  • 38. Training programme – GSP Global SOC 1. Introduction to soil property mapping 2. Data preparation 3. Basic Geostatistics 4. Conventional upscaling methods 5. Regression Kriging 6. Uncertainty 7. Validation 07/06/2017 38FAO/GSP GSOC training: Introduction to Soil Property Mapping