The document discusses several topics related to climate change and agroforestry: 1. It outlines two research groups focusing on adaptation and mitigation of climate change through agroforestry. 2. It summarizes some of the impacts of climate change on agroforestry species and economic activities as well as limits to adaptation. 3. It also briefly discusses the contributions of agriculture and land use to greenhouse gas emissions and benefits of trees on farms.

1. GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011 Henry Neufeldt On behalf of the whole GRP5 team ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, 12 September 2011

3. The limits of adaptation (Source: Parry et al., 2010)

4. Contributions to climate change Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions

5. Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

7. Short-term losses vs. long-term benefits

9. Climate variability and change 1. Adaptation to progressive climate change 2. Adaptation through managing climate risk 3. Pro-poor climate change mitigation Technologies, practices, policies and capacity enhancement: 4. Integration for decision making Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, NRM & food systems Improved environmental benefits Improved livelihoods Improved food security Trade-offs and synergies

12. Further analysis will be based on – Heubes, J., Kühn, I., König, K., Wittig, R., Zizka, G. and Hahn, K. (2011), Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa. Journal of Biogeography. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – iii) results AGF tree species predictions Climate driven shifts of AGF systems Recent distribution of Cacau AGF Systems in the Amazon Prediction of Cacau Agroforesty Systems in 2050 (SRES A1B, Echam5) ICRAF LA

13. Innovation Climate analogues

14. GHG flux measurement v1: GC and IRGA

15. GHG flux measurement v2: PAS Multi-gas analyzer

16. Key Successes

21. Tenure security

22. Tenure and Investment in Woody Vegetation

23. ¡¿ Thanks for a future !?