Presentation given by Keith Wiebe, Senior Research Fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute, at the Global Landscapes Forum on 16 November 2016 in Marrakesh, Morocco. http://www.landscapes.org/

1. Climate change and food systems:
Global modeling to inform
decision making
Keith Wiebe
Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight
against climate change and hunger
Marrakech, Morocco
November 16, 2016

2. All models are wrong,
but some are useful
-- George Box and Norman Draper (1987)

3. Outline
 What makes models useful?
 Transparency, credibility, flexibility
 Engagement with stakeholders and decision makers
 Modeling approach – IMPACT
 Climate change impacts on agriculture and food
 Implications for policy

4. IFPRI’s IMPACT system of models
Exploring alternative climate and investment futures
4
Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute:
Washington, DC..
• Linked climate, water, crop and economic
models
• Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts

5. Climate change impacts in 2050
The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2)
Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

6. Climate change impacts in 2050
Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Yields Area Production Prices Trade
Percentchangein2050
SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)

7. Hunger in 2030
by climate and investment scenario
(bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis)
7
Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley
Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).

8. Health impacts of GHG taxes on food in 2020
Source: Springmann, Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, et al., Nature Climate Change (2016)

9. Key messages
• Results
– Climate change increases pressure on natural resources and slows
progress in reducing hunger, especially in Africa South of the Sahara
– Also affects diet and health in all regions
– A mix of targeted policies and investments – recognizing tradeoffs –
will be needed to address impacts at national and landscape scales
• Making results useful
– Stakeholders for global modeling include international donors and
research community
– Reaching national and sub-national decision makers requires links to
analysis and engagement at smaller scales
– Need to build these links and engagement into research planning and
policy processes

10. Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org