The demographic transition model describes population change over time in four stages: Stage one is characterized by high birth and death rates in preindustrial societies. Stage two sees a decreasing death rate due to improved health and sanitation, while the birth rate remains high, leading to rapid population growth. In stage three, as societies industrialize, the birth rate decreases as families choose to have fewer children, while the death rate continues to decline steadily. Finally, in stage four, populations experience low birth and death rates, with some populations even declining as women have greater control over family planning. The model attempts to generalize population trends in industrialized nations over the last 200 years.

1. Demographic
Transition Model
Ms. Patten
2010

2. Definition
 The "Demographic Transition" is a model that
describes population change over time. It is based
on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the
American demographer Warren Thompson, of the
observed changes, or transitions, in birth and
death rates in industrialized societies over the past
two hundred years or so.
 By "model" we mean that it is an idealized picture
of population change in these countries. The model
is a generalization that applies to these countries
as a group and may not accurately describe all
individual cases. Whether or not it applies to less
developed societies today remains to be seen.
http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

3. The Model

4. Stage One
 High birth rate: children necessary
on farms, no reliable contraception
 In India, an adult son was all that kept
a widow from falling into destitution
 High death rate: poor medical
knowledge, diet, water, sanitation,
drought and disease

5. Stage One
 Preindustrial
 Premodern
 High Fluxuating
 Slow growth

6. Stage Two
 High birth rate: children on farms, no
reliable contraception
 Decreasing death rate: medical
knowledge and diet improves,
increased food production, improved
sanitation and health
 Leads to an increase in life
expectancy
 Large increase in population

7. Stage Two
 Transitional
 Early Expanding
 Urbanizing or industrializing
 Rapid growth

8. Stage Three
 Decreasing birth rate:
industrialization, urbanization,
access to contraception, increase in
wages, education of women,
smaller families needed as infant
mortality drops
 Decreasing death rate: more
medical advances, clean water,
infant mortality decreases greatly
 Population growth begins to level off

9. Stage Three
 Industrial
 Late Expanding
 Rapid to slowing growth

10. Stage Four
 Low birth rate: children cost money,
contraception widely available,
women gain status and control
 Low death rate: advanced medical
services, good living conditions,
increased health education
 Some death rates do remain high
because of obesity, low exercise and
aeging populations
 Population decline

11. Stage Four
 Postindustrial
 Low Fluxuating
 Zero to negative growth

12. The Model Revisited