The document explains the demographic transition theory proposed by W. Thompson and F.W. Notestein, outlining the relationship between birth and death rates across four stages of population growth: pre-modern society, urbanizing/industrializing society, mature industrial society, and post-industrial society. It details characteristics of each stage, such as low life expectancy and high birth/death rates in the first stage, and low birth/death rates with high urbanization in the fourth stage. The document also discusses criticisms of the model, including its inability to predict future population changes and its focus on industrial changes without considering social factors.

1. Dr. BEEJATA DAS
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY
S.P.P. COLLEGE, NAMTI, SIVASAGAR,
ASSAM, INDIA

2. The Demographic Transition Theory was put forwarded by W.
Thompson and F.W. Notestein.
Aim of the Theory
This theory throws light on changes in birth rate and death rate
and consequently on the growth rate of population. The
relationship between birth rate and death rate
changes with economic development and a country has to pass
through different stages of population growth.

3. STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
1st STAGE: PRE- MODERN SOCIETY
2nd STAGE: URBANISING/ INDUSTRIALIZING
SOCIETY
3rd STAGE: MATURE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY
4th STAGE: POST- INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

4. 1st STAGE: PRE- MODERN SOCIETY
This stage occurs in agrarian societies. About
200- 250 years ago all the countries of the
world were passing through this stage. In this
stage the birth rate and death rate are high
and roughly in balance.

5. Characteristics of 1st Stage
a. Population density is low or moderate.
b. General productivity is low.
c. Life expectancy is low.
d. Development of non- agricultural sector is at its infancy stage.
e. Masses are generally Illiterate.
f. Lack of Technological know- how.

6. 2nd STAGE: URBANISING/ INDUSTRIALIZING
SOCIETY
This stage represents a developing country
where the death rates drop rapidly due to
improvement in food supply and sanitation
which increase life span and reduce disease.
Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

7. Characteristics of 2nd Stage
a. Numerous improvements in public health
reduce mortality.
b. Increase in female literacy.

8. 3rd STAGE: MATURE INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETY
This stage consists of declining birth
rate. Mexico’s population is currently at
this stage.

9. Factors that led to decline in birth rate
a. Access to contraception.
b. Increase in wages.
c. Urbanization.
d. A reduction in subsistence agriculture.
e. An increase in the status and education of
women.

10. 4th STAGE: POST- INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY
In this stage, both the birth and death
rates are low. The population is either
stable or grows very slowly. North
America, Europe, Japan, Australia, New
Zealand are supposed to reach this
stage.

11. Characteristics of 4th Stage
a. Death rate may remain consistently low or
increase slightly due to increase in lifestyle
diseases or low exercise levels.
b. Birth rate is low because people have more
opportunities to choose if they want children.
c. The population is highly urbanised.
d. The literacy levels are high.
e. The degree of labour specialization is also high.

12. CRITICISM
1. It must be remembered that Demographic Transition
Model is only a model and can not necessarily predict the
future. It makes no comment on change in population due
to migration.
2. This theory assumes that population changes are
induced by industrial changes and increased wealth,
without taking into account the role of social change in
determining birth rate such as the education of women.