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population growth and demographic transition model
- 1. World population growth •Population of a country determines the level of economic development • increase in population accelerates the use of natural resources. • needed to understand the status of world population growth • The world population is growing at an alarmic rate. • The world population size has increased by many folds since last fifty years. • World population has increased with increasing growth rate.
- 2. Year 1650 18501930 1960 1975 1987 1998 2001 2011 Population In Billion 0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 6.5 6.9 Doubling period in Years - 200 80 - 45 - - - - World population growth
- 3. Phases of worldpopulation growth • Period of agricultural revolution • Period of industrial revolution • Period of population explosion • Period of declining population growth rate
- 4. Patterns of globalpopulation growth • There is significant variation in population growth rate across the world. • More developed countries achieved population growth rate of 0.43% annually • whereas it is 1.81% among less develop countries. • African nations show highest annual population growth rates of up to 2.57% followed by Latin America (1.77%), Asian nations (1.61%), north America (1.05%) and Oceania (1.49%).
- 5. Geographical patterns ofnatural population growth (annual growth rate) • Negative population growth (< 0%) – Eastern Europe • Low population growth (0-1%) – Western Europe, N. America, South Africa, China, Oceania • Moderate population growth (1-2%) – India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Southeast Asia • High population growth (2-3%) – Afghanistan, Pakistan, Africa • Very high population growth (> 3%) – Southeast Africa
- 6. Demographic Transition Model/Theory •systematic relationship between population and economic development • later converted in demographic transition theory. • This theory was proposed by Frank Notestein and Warren S. Thompson. • The demographic transition theory is related to population growth and economic development. • Here population growth is considered as natural population growth in terms of birth rate and death rate. • changes in population size with respect to social-economic transformation over the period. Warren S. Thompson Frank Notestein
- 7. Natural population growth •It refers to the difference between the death rate and birth rate and denoted as NPGR. • NPGR = BR – DR where (NPGR = Natural population growth rate, BR = birth rate , DR = Death rate) • Birth Rate : it refers to the actual number of live births in a year per 1000 population and denoted as BR. • BR = Total number of births in a year / Total population X 1000 • Death Rate : it refers to the actual number of deaths in a year per 1000 population and denoted as DR. • DR = Total number of deaths in a year / Total population X 1000
- 8. Assumptions • Change inpopulation size is determined by BR and DR • BR and DR never remain constant • Decline in DR is always followed by decline in BR • Change in population size is response to social –economic transformation.
- 9. Stages of DemographicTransition • Stage 1 – High stationary stage • Stage 2 – Early expanding stage • Stage 3 – Late expanding stage • Stage 4 – Low stationary stage • Stage 5 – Stage of negative population growth
- 10. Stage 1 –High stationary stage • high birth rate and death rate. • This stage backward economies. • High death rate is mainly a result of poor medical facilities, natural hazards, epidemics and infant deaths. • High BR is associated with low life expectancy, agro-based economy, lack of awareness and old traditions and customs. • However the growth rate of population is significantly low due to negligible difference between BR and DR.
- 11. Stage 2 –Early expanding stage • high BR and suddenly declining DR. • The declining DR in this stage of demographic transition is response to innovation in medical sector, control over diseases • However BR remains same due to religious factors. • high population growth rate. • this stage also known as the stage of Population Explosion. • Most of the south Asian countries lie in this stage.
- 12. Stage 3 –Late expanding stage • declining trend in both BR and DR. • Here decline in BR is a spontaneous response to the decline in DR. • It is mainly due to increasing awareness, family planning measures, high standard of living and education. • However population growth rate is still significant • China is about to achieve this stage of demographic transition.
- 13. Stage 4 –Low stationary stage • low birth rate and death rate. • implies the features of highly developed economies • High standard of living and realization of significance of small family. • European countries lie in this stage of demographic transition. • population growth rate is almost zero. • this stage is also known as stage of Zero Population growth.
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