The document discusses the Delphi Method, which is a structured communication technique used to elicit opinions from experts through questionnaires and controlled feedback. It involves conducting multiple rounds of questionnaires to develop a consensus on complex problems. Experts answer anonymously to avoid groupthink and bias, and after each round a facilitator provides feedback including reasons for judgments to encourage revised opinions. The goal is for the group to converge towards the best or most accurate answer through this process. The document outlines the definition, overview of the process, objectives, technique, outcomes and benefits of using the Delphi Method.

1. LOGO
Delphi Method
Presented By :
Farzad Minooei
Graduate
School of
Management
and
Economics

2. Contents
31 Definition
2 Overview
33 Application
4 Objectives
35 Technique

3. Contents
6 Outcomes
37 Benefits

4. 31 Definition
Delphi Method is
 a method for structuring a group
communication process so that the process is
effective in allowing a group of individuals, as
a whole, to deal with a complex problem.
 based on the principle that forecasts (or
decisions) from a structured group of
individuals are more accurate than those from
unstructured groups.

5. 32 Overview
In the standard version:
 the experts answer questionnaires in two or
more rounds
 after each round, a facilitator provides an
anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts
from the previous round as well as the
reasons they provided for their judgments.
 experts are encouraged to revise their earlier
answers in light of the replies of other
members of their panel.

6. 32 Overview
 It is believed that during this process the
range of the answers will decrease and the
group will converge towards the "correct"
answer.
 Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined
stop criterion(e.g. number of rounds,
achievement of consensus).

7. 3 Application
Use in forecasting
To deal with a complex problem
As a tool to implement multi-stakeholder
approaches for participative policy-making

8. 34 Objectives
To ensure that all possible options are
identified
To estimate the impact &
consequences of options
To examine & estimate the
acceptability of options

9. 5 Technique
Orientation:
 Six Phases in Delphi :
• Formulation of Issues
• Exposing Options
• Determining initial options on Issues especially
areas of agreement & disagreement
• Exploring reasons for disagreement
• Evaluating such reasons
• Re-Evaluating of Options in the Light of above
 First 3 Phases constitute the crucial stage of
preparation.

10. 5 Technique
Selecting & retaining a Panel:
 Size of the panel
 Selecting a member as an expert
 Attrition rate over several rounds of
consultation

11. 5 Technique
Selecting & retaining a Panel:
 Selection member as an expert :
• Key Issue:
– Nature of participants Interest
– Depth & range of expertise
• Two basic type of participants:
– Referees : disinterested experts on topic
– Advocate : their knowledge derive from their Participant
– Diversity between “Referee” & “Advocate”
» To avoid Uniformity of response
• Participant’s Different degree of Experience on
topics

12. 5 Technique
Designing the Questionnaire :
 Pre-test : for balance between closed-Open
Questionnaire.
 Take 30 min till 5 hours to complete

13. 5 Technique
Scaling Judgments:
 Participants are asked to make evaluations
about specific propositions & not simply
choose from a number of alternatives.

14. 5 Technique
Progressing through successive rounds:
 5 rounds of Delphi may be necessary to meet
all its objectives

15. 5 Technique
Each grouping (Sponsor-Consultant-Expert) might
be seen as stakeholders.

16. 36 Outcomes
Identifying the degree of consensus or
dissensus
Specifying the range of different positions
Revealing the rationales which lie behind the
judgments

17. 7 Benefits
Delphi is suitable for problem
 does not lend itself to precise analytical
technique
 but benefit from subjective judgments on
collective basis
Suitable in conditions of Uncertainty
It is more appropriate when it is not practicable
or desirable to bring experts together

18. 7 Benefits
Delphi roles as a forum for
exploration of Ideas & the
strength of opinion
It brings wide range of experts
from different backgrounds
It enables disagreement in a
constructive forum & ensures
equal participation

20. LOGO
Graduate
School of
Management
and
Economics