Reading notes of the book Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Bristol, PA: Kingsley.
James Kirwan, CCRI Reader http://www.ccri.ac.uk/kirwan/ discusses the application of the Delphi method with regard to an EU project http://www.glamur.eu/
James Kirwan, CCRI Reader http://www.ccri.ac.uk/kirwan/ discusses the application of the Delphi method with regard to an EU project http://www.glamur.eu/
There are a variety of forecasting techniques that a company may use-.docxrochellej1
There are a variety of forecasting techniques that a company may use. Identify and discuss the four main qualitative approaches, including their advantages and disadvantages.
Solution
Qualitative forecasting techniques generally employ the judgment of experts in the appropriate field to generate forecasts. A key advantage of these procedures is that they can be applied in situations where historical data are simply not available. Moreover, even when historical data are available, significant changes in environmental conditions affecting the relevant time series may make the use of past data irrelevant and questionable in forecasting future values of the time series.
DELPHI TECHNIQUE.
In the Delphi technique, an attempt is made to develop forecasts through \"group consensus.\" Usually, a panel of experts is asked to respond to a series of questionnaires. The experts, physically separated from and unknown to each other, are asked to respond to an initial questionnaire (a set of questions). Then, a second questionnaire is prepared incorporating information and opinions of the whole group. Each expert is asked to reconsider and to revise his or her initial response to the questions. This process is continued until some degree of consensus among experts is reached. It should be noted that the objective of the Delphi technique is not to produce a single answer at the end. Instead, it attempts to produce a relatively narrow spread of opinions
.
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
The papers for publication in The International Journal of Engineering& Science are selected through rigorous peer reviews to ensure originality, timeliness, relevance, and readability.
Pubrica's scientific editing services use a "three-tier" editor procedure. First, a SME reviews the document for consistency, coherency, and intelligibility; second, another SME goes through the material again to recast ambiguous writing. Finally, the document was approved by the quality assurance team.
Notes on reader introducing systems approaches prt 4 sodaJames Cracknell
Part 4 - A practical workshop facilitation process that ties into cognitive mapping and Personal Construct Theory. In essence a piece of delivery that underpins change and can be used to explore new facts of business development and value creation
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Associated keynote talk can be found on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slIITVfOhXg&t=1433s
On February 18, 2022, I delivered a rather interesting and important talk online to a group of 60ish educators, researchers, and practitioners on teaching with Moodle in MoodleMoot Japan 2022. If the following keywords interest you, you should not miss this video: ontology, epistemology, psychology, educational paradigms, learning theories, and pedagogy. This video also for the first time introduces an original untested learning theory called by me "creation-based learning (CBL)". I embrace the learning paradigms of #constructivism and #connectivism. I also am a strong fan of constructionism. I hope CBL will be one step further to promote active learning online. In this video, I also raised the idea of "sustainable learning behaviors" and raised the attention of the public towards sustainable learning behaviors of creating, maintaining, recycling, renewing, and sharing knowledge using networked digital technologies.
Quality assessment in systematic literature reviewJingjing Lin
This tutorial is to introduce the definition, process, and tools of quality assessment in the systematic literature review.
If you are new to my channel, you can check out the previous events together with this one to get started with the systematic literature review as a research approach.
EP11 Systematic Literature Review Planning: workflow, literature scoping, and review protocol (https://youtu.be/qukb-VytjxQ)
EP12 Develop search strategy: fishing relevant literature for your research (https://youtu.be/9cH5I03jbg0)
EP13 Literature screening: inclusion and exclusion
(https://youtu.be/BCdveqka-E4)
You can browse other previous research sharing in this YouTube list of mine (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list...)
Please kindly subscribe if you want to be reminded when I have new videos published on YouTube.
What is Mahara?
What can you experience as a user in Mahara?
What is ePortfolio?
What functions does Mahara have?
All answers can be found in this short video.
Re-use: This resource is produced by Jingjing Lin, at Center of IT-based Education, Toyohashi University of Technology. It is licensed
under Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International.
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http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
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The Delphi Method and its Contribution to Decision-Making
1. By Dr Little Lin Research
小林研究 制作
Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its
Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Bristol, PA: Kingsley.
READING NOTES Volume
01
3. The Delphi Method and its Contribution to
Decision-Making
(Adler and Ziglio, 1996, pp.3-33)
4. Central to the theoretical
assumptions of Delphi
method.
Knowledge Speculation
Informed judgment (wisdom, insight)
Various types of information represented as points on a continuum
The theoretical assumptions of Delphi method aims at structuring and distilling the vast
mass of information for which there is some evidence but not yet knowledge in order to
achieve and improve informed judgment and decision-making. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996,
p.6)
5. Delphi method is an exercise in group communication among
a panel of geographically dispersed experts. It allows experts
to deal systematically with a complex program or task. It
comprises a series of questionnaires sent to a pre-selected
group of experts. Questionnaires are designed to elicit and
develop individual responses to the posed problems and to
enable the experts to refine their views as the group’s work
progresses in accordance with the assigned task. (Adler and
Ziglio, 1996, p.9)
6. Ask:
◦ What kind of group communication process is desirable in
order to explore the problem at hand?
◦ Who are the people with expertise on the problem and
where are they located?
◦ What are the alternative techniques available and what
results can reasonably be expected from their application?
7. For subject matter where the best available
information is the judgment of knowledgeable
individuals, the Delphi method has distinct
advantages over traditional group discussions,
conferences, brainstorming and other interactive
group processes.
Delphi allows for (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.21) :
◦ Feedback of individual contributions
◦ Assessment of group judgment
◦ Opportunity for experts to revise views and reassess
previous contributions
◦ If necessary, provision of some degree of anonymity for the
individual responses
8. 10-15 individuals with a homogeneous group
Reduction in group error with increasing group side
Above certain threshold, including more individuals provides
only marginal benefit to the distillation process resulting from
the use of Delphi
Criteria of selection:
◦ expertise (knowledge and practical engagement with the issues under
investigation)
◦ Capacity and willingness of experts to contribute to the exploration of a
particular problem
◦ Assurance from experts that sufficient time will be dedicated to the Delphi
exercise
◦ Skill in written communication and in expressing priorities through voting
procedures
Being expert entails the acquisition of experience, special skill in
or knowledge of a particular subject, not necessarily to have
academic qualifications.
9. Round 1
•Q1: pose broad problem, to ask for answers and comments
•A1: answers and comments
•Feedback 1: analysis and summary of A1
Round 2
•Q2: pose modified problem, by integrating the Feedback1, to invite participants’
reevaluation or revision of their A1
•A2: reevaluation or revision or confirmation of their A1
•Feedback2: analysis and summary of A2
Round 3 and
more
•Repeat round 2 until reaching a satisfying consensus among participants
Explorationphase
Evaluationphase
In Round 2, it is common to ask respondents to rank items and to establish preliminary
priorities amongst them according to the instructions given. (Adler and Ziglio, 1996, p.10)
10.
11.
12. The characteristics of the design of the process can have
important effects on both the nature of the communication
process amongst panelists and final outcomes. Hence,
instructions, scales and any other device used to collect
experts’ judgments should be properly pre-tested.
The same should be done for different ways available to the
Delphi team of providing feedback to the experts. (Adler and
Ziglio, 1996, p.19)
13. Social surveys
Nominal group technique
Cross impact analysis
Policy and decision conferencing
Various types of simulations
14. In order to be effective, Delphi process needs to
facilitate in-depth conversation among experts.
This need is even greater for Delphi applications
aiming to generate information for problem solving
and the exploration of policy options. (Adler and
Ziglio, 1996, pp.19-20)
15. It is suggested to use straw model to
promote deep conversation in a Delphi
process.
A straw model defines the parameters of the
task and presents perspective on how the
task can be accomplished. It allows better
identification of the underlying assumptions
and values in operation during the Delphi
process.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23. Theoretical, methodological and practical
issues arising out of the Delphi method
(Adler and Ziglio, 1996, pp.34-55)
Adler, M., & Ziglio, E. (Eds.). (1996). Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its
Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Bristol, PA: Kingsley.
READING NOTES Volume
02
UPCOMING