The Delphi method is a structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts. It involves conducting multiple rounds of questionnaires to gather opinions on a topic. After each round, a facilitator provides anonymized feedback to encourage revised responses and consensus. The method was developed in the 1950s-60s to forecast technological impacts and has since been used for business forecasting, policymaking, and other areas where group judgment is preferable to individual views.

1.  Zaid Ahmad
 Dept. of Library &Info. Science
 AMU,Aligarh

3.  The Delphi method is a structured
communication technique or method, originally
developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting
method which relies on a panel of experts.
 Delphi is being used as Qualitative research
method.

4.  Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts
(or decisions) from a structured group of
individuals are more accurate than those from
unstructured groups. The technique can also be
adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is
then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-
Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used
for business forecasting and has certain
advantages over another structured forecasting
approach, prediction markets

5.  The experts answer questionnaires in two or more
rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change
agent provides an anonymous summary of the
experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as
the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus,
experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers
in light of the replies of other members of their
panel. It is believed that during this process the range
of the answers will decrease and the group will
converge towards the "correct" answer.

6.  Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop
criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of
consensus, stability of results) and the mean or
median scores of the final rounds determine the
results.[6]

8.  The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of
Delphi. The Delphi method is based on the
assumption that group judgments are more valid than
individual judgments.
 The Delphi method was developed at the beginning
of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology
on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold
ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army
Air Corps on the future technological capabilities
that might be used by the military.

9.  The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of
Delphi. The Delphi method is based on the
assumption that group judgments are more valid than
individual judgments.
 The Delphi method was developed at the beginning
of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology
on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold
ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army
Air Corps on the future technological capabilities
that might be used by the military.

10.  Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of
traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach,
quantitative models or trend extrapolation, quickly became
apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been
established yet. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi
method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s
(1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.
It has been used ever since, together with various modifications
and reformulations.
 Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability,
frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other
experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was
repeated several times until a consensus emerged

11.  Anonymity of the participants
 Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their
identity is not revealed, even after the completion
of the final report. This prevents the authority,
personality, or reputation of some participants
from dominating others in the process. Arguably,
it also frees participants (to some extent) from
their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon
effect" or "halo effect", allows free expression of
opinions, encourages open critique, and
facilitates admission of errors when revising
earlier judgments.

12.  The initial contributions from the experts are
collected in the form of answers to questionnaires
and their comments to these answers. The panel
director controls the interactions among the
participants by processing the information and
filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the
negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions
and solves the usual problems of group
dynamics.

13.  Participants comment on their own forecasts, the
responses of others and on the progress of the
panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise
their earlier statements. While in regular group
meetings participants tend to stick to previously
stated opinions and often conform too much to
the group leader; the Delphi method prevents it.

14.  The person coordinating the Delphi method is
usually known as a facilitator or Leader, and
facilitates the responses of their panel of experts,
who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold
knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator
sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the
panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and
present their views. Responses are collected and
analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints
are identified. If consensus is not reached, the
process continues through thesis and antithesis, to
gradually work towards synthesis, and building
consensus.

15.  Use in forecasting
› Public policy issues, such as economic trends,
health and education.
› Development of Science and technology
› Libraries
 Forecast role of librarian in the IT era
 Identify most critical issues facing by librarians in
the 21st century
 Features of next generation libraries

16.  Concept/ Frame work development
› Develop a descriptive framework of elemental
knowledge generation/manipulation activities.
Participants: Researchers and practitioners in
the knowledge management field.

17.  Policy Making

18.  A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using
web sites that allow the process to be conducted in
real-time. For instance, the TechCast Project uses a
panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast
breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology.
Another example is the Horizon Project, where
educational futurists collaborate online using the
Delphi method to come up with the technological
advancements to look out for in education for the
next few years.

19.  For example, the policy community members
(policy-makers and experts) may interact as part
of the main conference panel, while they receive
inputs from a virtual community (citizens,
associations etc.) involved in a side conference.
These web-based variable communication
structures, which he calls Hyper delphi (HD), are
designed to make Delphi conferences "more fluid
and adapted to the hyper textual and interactive
nature of digital communication".

20.  Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There
have been many cases when the method produced poor results.
Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the
method and not to the weaknesses of the method it self. It must
also be realized that in areas such as science and technology
forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and
always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of
error is to be expected.
 Another particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future
developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus
of experts. The issue of ignorance is important. If panelists are
misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add
confidence to their ignorance.

21.  Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi
method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and
has been used successfully for thousands of
studies in areas varying from technology
forecasting to drug abuse.

22.  Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi
method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and
has been used successfully for thousands of
studies in areas varying from technology
forecasting to drug abuse.

23.  Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi
method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and
has been used successfully for thousands of
studies in areas varying from technology
forecasting to drug abuse.
 Reference
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method