The Delphi technique is a method for gathering expert opinions through anonymous questionnaires and controlled feedback to arrive at a group consensus. It involves multiple rounds of questionnaires where responses from each round are analyzed and used to develop the next questionnaire to guide participants towards a consensus. Key advantages are anonymity, avoiding direct debate, and allowing geographically scattered experts to participate without meeting in person. It is well-suited for forecasting and identifying dimensions of problems.

1. Delphi Technique of
Qualitative Forecasting

2. Objectives
• Become familiar with the qualitative
research method known as the Delphi
Technique.

3. Purpose
• Delphi is a group
process for eliciting,
collating, and
generally directing
informed (expert)
judgment towards a
consensus on a
particular topic.

4. Uses
• Identifying the dimensions and the
attributes of a problem
• Providing forecasts
• Gathering information from a group whose
members do not meet fact-to-face and
wish to retain their anonymity

5. Description
• Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on
and debate issues anonymously.
• Typically conducted by mail or e-mail utilising
several rounds of questionnaires.
• Results of each round are collected, collated
and analysed by a design team.
• Questions for the next round are based on the
previous responses.
• Generally provides convergence of opinions.

6. Advantages within Delphi
• Anonymity
• More accurate representation of expert
opinions
• No group meetings are required.
• Allows participants to be geographically
scattered.

7. Limitations within Delphi
• Time consuming.
• High participant interest and commitment
is assumed or the quantity and quality of
responses will decrease with each round.
• By design Delphi does not allow for instant
communication or intellectual stimulation.

8. Inputs
• Respondents should:
– Have special experience or knowledge to share.
– Represent a cross-section of opinions.
– Be motivated to participate.
• Questionnaire should:
– Be as short as possible
– Be adapted to the language most familiar to the
participants area of expertise

9. Schedule for Delphi

10. The Recipe
• Develop the basis for a Delphi
• Design Questionnaire #1
• Solicit responses for questionnaire #1
• Analyse questionnaire #1
• Design questionnaire #2
• Solicit responses for questionnaire #2
• Analyse questionnaire #2
• Design questionnaire #3
• Solicit responses for questionnaire #3
• Analyse questionnaire #3
• Design questionnaire #4
• Solicit responses for questionnaire #4
• Analyse questionnaire #4
• Closure