How to properly use the dephi technique during system analysis

1. Alpha Planning –
Delphi Technique

2. Delphi Technique
• The Delphi technique is sometimes called the Estimate talk
Estimate(ESE).
• It is a structured communication strategy or process that was first
created as a tool for interactive, methodical forecasting that relies
on a panel of experts. The method can also be modified for use in
face-to-face interactions, in which case it is known as mini-Delphi.
Prediction markets are a different structured forecasting approach,
but Delphi has some advantages over them that make it popular for
commercial forecasting.
• It also referred to a methodology that is used to elicit, distill, and
determine the opinions of a panel of experts from a given field,
seek consensus among the experts and make a prediction or
decisions using the expert opinions of the panelist involved in the
study.
• It highlights areas of divergence of opinion.

3. CONTINU………
• The foundation of Delphi is the idea that
projections (or choices) made by a structured
group of people are more reliable than those
made by unstructured groupings. Two or more
rounds of questionnaires are completed by
the experts. A facilitator or change agent
presents an anonymous overview of the
experts' predictions from the previous round
along with the justifications they offered for
their conclusions after each round.

4. CONTINU……….
• As a result, experts are urged to update their prior
responses in light of the comments made by other
panelists. It is anticipated that as this process continues,
the range of responses will narrow and the group will
gravitate toward the "correct" response. After a
predetermined number of rounds, the establishment of
consensus, or the stability of the findings, the process is
finally ended, and the outcomes are determined by the
mean or median scores of the final rounds. In order to
prevent methodological flaws that seriously jeopardize the
validity and reliability of the results, special attention must
be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses as well as
the definition and selection of the experts.

5. HISTORY
• Although the name Delphi is derived from the Oracle
of Delphi, its oracular connotation and "smacking a
little of the occult" connotation bothered the method's
creators. The Delphi approach makes the assumption
that collective decisions are more reliable than
individual decisions.
• To predict how technology might affect conflict, the
Delphi approach was created at the start of the Cold
War. General Henry H. Arnold commissioned the
writing of a report in 1944 for the U.S. Army Air Corps
on potential military applications for emerging
technologies.

6. CONTINU…….
• Different strategies were tried, but in regions where specific
scientific laws have not yet been established, the limitations of
conventional forecasting techniques, such as theoretical approach,
quantitative models, or trend extrapolation, quickly became
obvious.
• Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher created the
Delphi method at Project RAND in the 1950s–1960s (1959) to
address these drawbacks.
• Since then, it has been employed together with numerous
modifications and reformulations, including the Imen-Delphi
technique.
• In order to determine the likelihood, propensity, and severity of
potential enemy assaults, experts were consulted. Other authorities
could offer anonymous commentary. Until a consensus was
reached, this process was repeated multiple times.

7. Characteristics of Delphi Technique
• Anonymity of participants
• Structuring of information flow
• Regular feedback
• Role of facilitator

8. Application
• Forecasting
 Provides humans with the input required when
current or past data is not comprehensive
enough to allow accurate model forecasting.
• Use in policy making
• Use in educational research
• Use in patent participation identification
• Use in health setting

9. Application
• Use in public health
• Use in report guiding
• Reaching consensus

10. Challenges
• Lengthy process
It requires multiple rounds of iteration and feed back
• Reporting methods
There is lack of clear reporting which leads to undermining of
the conclusions
• Limitations of the method
Its mixed nature does not allow for studies to follow a
standardized scientific approach as it is possible with other
study methodologies
• Experience of panelists
Some critics of this technique have a concern on the
experience of the different panelists who participate in

11. THANKS FOR
LEARNING
FROM
GROUP II