Qualitative Methodology

1. DELPHI METHOD
OF FORECASTING
Presented by –
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH
1004-22-682-014
MBA (TM) Evening (2022-24)
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

2. WHAT IS DELPHI METHOD OF FORECASTING?
A structured communication technique originally
developed as a systematic and interactive forecasting
method which relies on a panel of experts.
Experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds.
After each round, a facilitator evaluates and provides an
anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts of
previous round.
Experts are then encouraged to revise their answers
based upon other experts’ replies.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

3. WHAT IS DELPHI METHOD OF FORECASTING?
Contd……
Next set of questionnaire is also revised and prepared
accordingly.
The process continues till a pre-defined time schedule
or till a general consensus is reached or till a pre-
defined stop criterion is reached.
It is believed that the range of answers will decrease
after each round and the group may converge towards
a correct solution to the issue.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

4. WHAT IS DELPHI METHOD OF FORECASTING?
Contd……
Delphi is based on the Principle that forecasts from a
structured group of individuals are more accurate
than those from unstructured groups.
It is qualitative method which indicates prevailing of
“Collective Intelligence” over “Individual Ideas”.
It is a process of exploring, assessing and evaluating.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

5. STEP-BY-STEP PROCESS
Selection of Experts
Questionnaire Development
Round 1
Compilation of Responses
Round 2 (Iterative Rounds)
Consensus Building
Final Report
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

6. IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS OF DELPHI
METHOD OF FORECASTING?
Developed at the beginning of cold war to forecast the
impact of technology on warfare.
Allows dialogue between geographically separated
experts while serving an effective means of learning.
Structuring of information flow.
Regular feedback.
Anonymity of the participants.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

7. ROLE OF FACILITATOR
The person coordinating Delphi Method is known
as facilitator.
He / She facilitates responses of panel of experts.
He is responsible for preparing questionnaires and
revising those from time to time.
He / She collects and analyses the responses of
different experts.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

8. APPLICATIONS OF DELPHI METHOD
Initial applications were mainly in the field of
Science and Technology Forecasting
Now it is widely used in the field of Public Policy,
Economic Trends, Health and Education.
It has also been used as a tool to implement multi-
stakeholder approaches for participative policy-
making in developing countries.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

9. HOW TO USE IT ?
Define the Problem / Issue.
Give every experts the problem.
Collate the responses.
Give everyone the collection.
Repeat as necessary.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

10. ADVANTAGES
Opportunities for large number of experts to
participate.
Focus on ideas rather than individuals.
Anonymity for participants which make
contributions of ideas a safe activity.
Opportunities for participants to reconsider
options.
Allows for identification of priorities.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

11. LIMITATIONS
Large amount of time required to conduct several
rounds.
The complexity of data analysis.
The difficulty of maintaining participants enthusiasm
throughout process.
Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases
and memories.
The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

12. CONCLUSION
The Delphi method offers a structured approach for
harnessing expert insights to make informed forecasts and
decisions in diverse domains. By promoting consensus-
building, anonymity, and iteration, the Delphi process helps
reconcile divergent opinions and anticipate future trends
with greater accuracy and reliability. While the method has
its limitations, its versatility and effectiveness make it a
valuable tool for navigating uncertainty and complexity in
an ever-changing world.
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

13. OTHER NOTABLE FORECASTING METHODS
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
MACHINE LEARNING ALOGORITHMS
MARKET RESEARCH
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
HYBRID METHODS
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014

14. THANK YOU
SUSHIL KUMAR SINGH / 1004-22-682-014