This document summarizes strategies for debiasing human decision making. It discusses motivational, cognitive, and technological strategies for overcoming biases. Some key points covered include recognizing biases through feedback, replacing inferior intuitive decision strategies with better rules-based strategies through training, using technology like linear models and statistical analysis to improve upon expert judgments, and promoting the adoption of debiasing techniques through social norms and management programs.

1. DBIASiNG!
Presented by:
Amir MohammadShirazi
Hamid Darzi
Mehran Azimi
1

2.  Introduction(Rationality & Debiasing)
 Nature of Biases
 Motivational Strategies
 Cognitive Strategies
 Technological Strategies
 Adoption & Diffusion
 Future of Debiasing
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3. Debiasing
Strategies
Bridge The Gap
Descriptive
Behavior
Normative Ideal
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4. 1.People posses normative strategies
2.Intuitive and normative strategies
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5. 1.By Status Quo and Environment
2.Increasing Decision Making Skills
Robustness
1. Meliorists
2. Apologists
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6. 1.Recognition
2.Correction
1. Feed back problem & Source of Error
2. Uncertainty of Environment(Self Serving attributions
of ability)
3. Compensation of Cultural Mechanism
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7. • Specific Bias
• Source of Bias
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8. 8

9. Psychophysical based errors
Shifting reference
point
Inconsistent judge
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10. Association based errors
Activation of associated cognitions
Inhibition of unassociated cognitions
Narrow band information
10

11. Strategy based errors
intuitive repertoire
Benefit-Cost
calculation
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12. 12

13. 13

14.  incentive
 accountability
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15. 15

16. 16

17. 17

18. Greater effort
Accuracy
Better performance
Preventing biases
Need to look consistent
18

19. Potential Problems
Give the people
what they wants
Justification-base
Decision Bias
19

20.  Consider the opposite
Training in rules
Training in representation
Training in biases
20

21. ASK:
What are some reasons that my initial judgment might be wrong?
What about simply listing reasons?
Overconfidence
Anchoring
Hindsight
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22. How inferior strategies can be
replaced by the better one?
Experience
Training
22

23. The rules can be thought in the
form of mathematics and logic
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24. The rules can be applied in everyday
life decisions
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25. People reason better about
“frequencies” than about “probabilities”
Frequencies Probabilities
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26. • Information as “Probabilities”
 %0.8 of women have breast cancer
 The probability of “positive result” for
those who have cancer is %90
The probability of “positive result” for
those who don’t have cancer is %7
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27. • Information as “Frequencies”
‘Eight’ out of every 1000 women have
breast cancer
Of this ‘eight’ women ‘seven’ will have
a positive result
Of the ‘992’ women who don’t have
cancer ‘70’ will still have a positive
result
27

28. Is “Awareness”
Enough?
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29. 29
TECHNOLOGICAL
STRATEGIES

30. Disadvantages
 Increase sample size of experience
Synergy
Error-checking system
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 Social cost of rejection
 Free riding
Anchoring
Benefits

31. 31
LINEAR MODELS
& STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
Experts can be replaced by models based on their judgments
Theses models can make better prediction than experts .
U(A) = w1 X1 + w2 X2 + w3 X3
Proper & Improper
Linear Models

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MUA (Multiattribute Utility) Analysis
Decision Analysis
Decision support system (DSS)

33. The main question is:
How to encourage
people to adopt
better decision
strategies?
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34. People resist being debiased
Me?!
Biased?!
IMPOSSIBLE!!!
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35. People resist being Debiased
“Doing it Wrong” for all these years?!
Relinquish control over a decision process
Techniques are alien and complex and the
benefits are noisy, delayed or small
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36. Promote Adoption
Compliance to
behavioral norm
Compliance to
behavioral norm
InternValisza.tion of
beliefs
Internalization
of beliefs
36

37. Management Tools
TQM Six Sigma
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38. Defect?
Where is it?
38

39. • Senior management do not practice
endorsement
• Doubtfulness of outside consultants
• Separation from coworkers
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40. H“Leoarwn it ,c Teaanch iitt, U bsee it, fInisxpeecdt it?”
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41. Simple
Domain-Specific
Social
Top-Down
Complex
Domain-General
Indivisual
Bottom-Uop
Vs.
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42. The Most Successful
Simple
Domain-Specific
Social
Top-Down
Complex
Domain-General
Individual
Bottom-Up
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43. Informal Debiasing techniques
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44. 44
The higher you are, the
harder you fall !f

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