The Indian rupee plunged against the US dollar due to the UK's decision to exit the EU and weak domestic market sentiment, while foreign institutional investors purchased $2.81 billion from the local equity market year-to-date. The US dollar index surged on risk aversion and weak US economic data, and other currencies like the euro, pound, and yen also declined against the dollar. Technical analyses are provided for various currency pairs like USDINR, GBPINR, and EURINR to give trading recommendations.

1. Currency Highlights
27th
June’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee plunged sharply to 67.97 in Friday’s trade
 US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.3 percent in May
 German Ifo Business Climate increased to 108.7-mark in June
 UK’s BBA Mortgage Approvals jumped to 42,200 in last month
Indian Rupee plunged sharply to reach a low of 68.22 but gradually recov-
ered and saw a loss of 72 paise to end at 67.97 against the US dollar on
Friday. The currency depreciated following the exit of Britain from the Eu-
ropean Union (EU). Further, downside in the domestic market sentiments
led to negative movement in the currency.
Additionally, outflow of foreign funds continued with downside movement
in the currency. So far this year, FII’s have sold $1.78 billion in the debt
markets. India’s 10-year bond yield closed at 7.476 percent, compared
with Thursday’s close of 7.481 percent.
However, Year-to-date, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have bought $2.81 billion from the local equity market. Sharp fall
in the currency was restricted as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened the markets by selling of dollars at 68.20 levels. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 67.78 to 68.22 in Friday’s trading session.
US Dollar Index surged sharply around 2.5 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market senti-
ments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country
coupled with Britain exiting the European Union kept pressure on the currency.
US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.3 percent in May as against a rise of 0.5 percent in April. Durable Goods Orders
plunged by 2.2 percent in last month from a previous drop of 0.8 percent in April. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment fell by
0.8 points to 93.5-mark in June with respect to 94.3-level in May. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations gained by 2.6 percent in
June when compared to 2.4 percent a month ago.
Euro against dollar plunged around 2 percent on Friday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, United Kingdom
voting to move out of the European Union led to negative movement in the currency. Additionally, weak global market senti-
ments continued with downside movement in the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was prevented due to favoura-
ble economic data from the region. German Ifo Business Climate increased by 1 point to 108.7-mark in June as against a rise of
107.7-level in May. Italian Retail Sales gained by 0.1 percent in April from a previous decline of 0.6 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound plunged sharply by more than 6 percent in Friday’s trade after Britain decided to move away from the Eu-
ropean Union. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with stronger dollar led to decline in the currency. UK’s British
Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals jumped to 42,200 in May from 40,100 an earlier month.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 2.6 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global
market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.63 93.33 2.30 2.41
USD/INR(Spot) 67.90 67.24 0.66 0.97
USD/INR(NseJune) 68.00 67.28 0.72 1.06
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.40 76.18 (0.78) (1.03)
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.32 76.62 (1.30) (1.73)
GBP/INR(Spot) 92.95 100.52 (7.57) (8.14)
GBP/INR(NseJune) 93.38 100.11 (6.73) (7.21)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 66.43 63.60 2.83 4.26
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its rising wedge pattern at
65.50 levels on daily chart. The price has given breakout of its
consolidation range of 62.50 to 65 levels on daily chart, which
indicates further upside momentum in the prices.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 daily exponential moving average which gives the positive
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has remained above
60 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67 levels in
few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has face strong resistance of
its upper band at 68.50 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 21 hourly expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains
down. So any rally in the prices towards 68.10 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has faced resistance of its hori-
zontal trend line at 65 levels on daily chart, which suggest
bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover on
hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 67.50 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
27th
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.09 67.55 67.78 68.01 68.24 68.47 68.93
JPYINR 59.74 63.34 64.89 66.94 68.49 70.54 74.14

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
27th
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel pattern
at 75.50 levels on daily chart. The pair has given breakdown
of its symmetrical triangle pattern at 76.45 levels on daily
chart with bolstering volumes.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 74
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its horizontal channel
pattern at 94 levels on daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bearish.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 92
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.91 88.44 90.91 92.97 95.44 97.50 102.03
EURINR 71.92 73.57 74.45 75.22 76.10 76.87 78.52

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
26.06.16 All Day Spanish Parliamentary Election
27.06.16 1:30pm M3 Money Supply y/y 4.6% 4.8% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
27th
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
27th
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.27 08:41:26 +05'30'